Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Kansas City vs. Tennessee

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When this matchup occurred last year the circumstances were very different. The Chiefs were 3-3 going into the game before going 3-4 out of it, and the Titans improved from 4-2 to 5-2. The game was in Tennessee rather than Arrowhead. Instead of moving him for a huge downgrade, the Titans benefited from the presence of A.J. Brown. This time around the Chiefs are 5-2, and returning from their bye. The Titans are 5-2 as well, but they lost the only two games they played against teams with winning records, and injuries are hurting them at crucial positions. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is questionable with what might be a high ankle sprain, and top defender Jeffery Simmons is questionable with an ankle issue of his own. As a result of all of these details, the Chiefs are favored by a whopping 12.5 points while the over/under checks in at 45.5.

QUARTERBACKS

Patrick Mahomes ($12000 DK, $16500 FD) rarely needs his case made for him, and this matchup is no exception, but it's worth noting just how good he sets up in this one. Either the spread is wrong and the Chiefs will not dominate this game, or Mahomes almost necessarily has a big game here. The Titans defense is good against the run and the Chiefs never make a serious effort to run effectively. The Titans might also be without top defender Jeffery Simmons on the defensive line and standout safety Amani Hooker in the secondary. The Titans corners are not built to withstand speed and the Chiefs should be able to make them uncomfortable by going four wide and trips often.

Sometimes there's a case to make for considering a backup quarterback in a showdown slate, and this might be one such case with Ryan Tannehill ($9800 DK, $13000 FD) on a creaky ankle even if he does manage to play. It would probably get ugly if Malik Willis ($9000 DK, $13000 FD) needs to play, but his rushing ability means he could pile up points quickly if subbing for Tannehill, and the ownership percentage on Willis would be much lower than if he's declared starter. Willis is a fine play if declared starter, as well, again for almost exclusively rushing production reasons.

RUNNING BACKS

Derrick Henry ($10800 DK, $16000 FD) is incomparable and no defense is safe from him, so it's understandably difficult to leave him off a showdown lineup. With that said, the spread implies the viability of the run game might be an issue in the second half, and the Chiefs run defense is better than it's been in recent years. Even those worse Chiefs run defenses contained Henry in their last two meetings, including last year when Henry only ran for 86 yards on 29 carries. If Henry is slowed then it might leave some amount of slack for Dontrell Hilliard ($4200 DK, $8000 FD), who consistently impresses when given opportunity. The opportunities for Hilliard tend to be brief and unpredictable, however.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($7000 DK, $11000 FD) is the best back in Kansas City but so long as the Chiefs continue to prioritize Jerick McKinnon ($3000 DK, $8000 FD) on passing downs it will be difficult for Edwards-Helaire to offer a ceiling worth the low floor he subjects his investors to so many weeks. McKinnon quite plainly needs the defense to forget to cover him to do anything, but the Mahomes threat makes exactly that happen regularly enough that McKinnon pops up on occasion. Isiah Pacheco ($2400 DK, $11000 FD) seems to have displaced Edwards-Helaire as the Chiefs lead runner but Pacheco has yet to see much run on passing downs. The Chiefs will eventually lose games because of their McKinnon obsession, but probably not this one.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Robert Woods ($7600 DK, $8500 FD) is the biggest fish in a tiny, stinky pond. The Titans have a painful lack of pass-catching options, especially in light of Treylon Burks' absence, and Woods is a competent player. What's less clear is whether he'll benefit from competent quarterback play. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($5200 DK, $8500 FD) will play the second-most snaps at receiver and might benefit from Woods drawing most of the attention, but Westbrook-Ikhine matches up poorly with Kansas City's outside corners. Cody Hollister ($200 DK, $7000 FD) might be the worst player in the NFL but the Titans gave him 32 snaps last week, most of those reps as a blocker. The Titans are simply compelled to get Chris Conley ($200 DK, $5000 FD) more snaps than Hollister, and if they fail to they can expect even more misery than is necessary. Austin Hooper ($1800 DK, $5500 FD) has been awful and loses a lot of playing time to Geoff Swaim ($3400 DK, $6500 FD) and Chigoziem Okonkwo ($200 DK, $5000 FD), but those two are blockers for the most part. If the Titans have to abandon the run then Hooper might see his playing time trend upward, though the more they run the more Hooper figures to lose to Swaim and Okonkwo.

The Titans run defense is better than its pass defense, so there should be something to be extracted from the Kansas City wideout rotation. Travis Kelce ($10400 DK, $14500 FD) is non-negotiably the lead target even if the Chiefs wideouts are effective in this one, so it's difficult to leave him out of any lineup. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8400 DK, $11500 FD) isn't physically imposing against the Tennessee corners, but he is the Chiefs wide receiver most capable from scrimmage and the one most capable of exploiting zone coverage, which the Titans might need to call a lot of given the difficulty of matching the Chiefs receivers in man coverage. Big-play threats like Mecole Hardman ($5600 DK, $9500 FD) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5400 DK, $10000 FD) have the speed to reliably burn the Titans over the top if they do try to play the corners close to the line of scrimmage. It's not clear how Skyy Moore ($400 DK, $7500 FD), Kadarius Toney ($6800 DK, $7000 FD) and Justin Watson ($600 DK, $6500 FD) might split up playing time with Toney on the team.

KICKERS

Harrison Butker ($5000 DK, $9500 FD) is one of the league's best kickers and this matchup seems plenty viable for scoring opportunities. The Titans run defense is quite good, so it's possible the Chiefs stall out in the red zone a couple times. Randy Bullock ($4400 DK, $9000 FD) is one of the league's worst kickers, and this matchup doesn't seem great for scoring opportunities.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Chiefs ($5800 DK, $9000 FD) defense is expected to be in an advantageous position for this game, especially if Tannehill is out or limited. Even if Tannehill is able to play it's doubtful he'll be 100 percent healthy, and even if he's 100 percent healthy it still looks like a difficult matchup for Tannehill, who has very little pass-catching help. Containing Derrick Henry is easier said than done, but it's all the Chiefs need to do to tie up this game. Pacheco would be the kick returner pairing and Moore has been the primary punt returner for Kansas City, but it's not clear if his role will be revisited after two fumbles and the acquisition of Toney. The Titans ($3800 DK, $8000 FD) defense doesn't have any obvious utility in this matchup. Mahomes would need a very uncharacteristic meltdown for something otherwise to be the case.