This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
The Colts (4-7-1) technically could make the playoffs but for all practical purposes their season went up in smoke weeks ago. Whether they can match the focus and urgency of the Cowboys (8-3) is unclear – Dallas' record has them in strong position to claim a playoff spot but only a wildcard one with the Eagles at 10-1. While any underdog opponent could present a trap game threat, given their position the Cowboys would be silly to spring the trap on themselves by looking ahead to next week. This game should be understood as important, and the spread (Dallas -10.5) clearly expects the Cowboys to take it as such. After opening at 42.5 the over/under is up to 44.
QUARTERBACKS
Dak Prescott ($10200 DK, $16000 FD) might struggle to make big plays against a Colts defense allowing just 7.0 yards per pass attempt, but that they've allowed 13 touchdowns to four interceptions hints that they can give up volume in a bend-but-don't-break approach. Indeed, Dallas might be particularly low on big-play threats if Michael Gallup (illness) is limited, and you can only get so many big plays out of CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz. The Colts would normally present a potential pass funnel on defense due to being stronger against the run than the pass, but the threat to Prescott's volume would be a game script where Dallas jumps to a quick lead and then runs anyway just to preserve the win as quickly as possible. The Dallas pass
The Colts (4-7-1) technically could make the playoffs but for all practical purposes their season went up in smoke weeks ago. Whether they can match the focus and urgency of the Cowboys (8-3) is unclear – Dallas' record has them in strong position to claim a playoff spot but only a wildcard one with the Eagles at 10-1. While any underdog opponent could present a trap game threat, given their position the Cowboys would be silly to spring the trap on themselves by looking ahead to next week. This game should be understood as important, and the spread (Dallas -10.5) clearly expects the Cowboys to take it as such. After opening at 42.5 the over/under is up to 44.
QUARTERBACKS
Dak Prescott ($10200 DK, $16000 FD) might struggle to make big plays against a Colts defense allowing just 7.0 yards per pass attempt, but that they've allowed 13 touchdowns to four interceptions hints that they can give up volume in a bend-but-don't-break approach. Indeed, Dallas might be particularly low on big-play threats if Michael Gallup (illness) is limited, and you can only get so many big plays out of CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz. The Colts would normally present a potential pass funnel on defense due to being stronger against the run than the pass, but the threat to Prescott's volume would be a game script where Dallas jumps to a quick lead and then runs anyway just to preserve the win as quickly as possible. The Dallas pass rush is averaging four sacks per game and Matt Ryan ($9200 DK, $14500 FD) has shown a tendency to melt down even against weaker pass rushes. With standout right tackle Braden Smith unavailable the possibility of a Ryan meltdown has gone from 'very possible' to 'somewhat likely.'
Said shorter, there might not be much passing in this game because Dallas shouldn't need to and Indianapolis should be unable to. If Ryan does unexpectedly well it could have something to do with corner Trevon Diggs playing through recent illness, but the Dallas pass rush seems likely to make that an irrelevant point.
RUNNING BACKS
Jonathan Taylor ($10000 DK, $15000 FD) is tough to fade even as a heavy underdog, but it's probably safe to say that his fantasy prospects are entirely dependent on his rushing production. After opening his career with two strong seasons as a pass catcher Taylor's receiving production has completely evaporated in 2022, producing just 24 receptions for 109 yards on 35 targets. Ryan seems to be the problem, but until the Colts have a different quarterback it might be an enduring issue for Taylor. While that limitation narrows his path to fantasy production, there's reason to think Taylor might get enough done on the ground in this game, or at least more than you'd normally expect of a double-digit underdog. The Colts know they need to run to hide Ryan from the Dallas pass rush, and the Dallas run defense is probably no better than decent (4.5 yards per carry, 6.0 yards per target to opposing running backs). If Taylor is a good fade in this slate then it almost guarantees the Colts get completely blown away – an outcome that is certainly on the table. Deon Jackson ($4600 DK, $6500 FD) and Zack Moss ($400 DK, $7000 FD) have combined to play just 21 snaps over the last two weeks, but either could play more than usual if the Colts get obliterated.
Ezekiel Elliott ($7800 DK, $12000 FD) and Tony Pollard ($8200 DK, $13500 FD) could both have good fantasy outputs in this game, and it seems a near certainty that at least one of them will. The Colts defense is famously unkind to opposing ground games, and the tackle duo of DeForest Buckner/Grover Stewart are well capable of containing the Dallas runners for some time, but Dallas' carries might occur in favorable field positioning and even the best run defense will eventually wither if it's on the field too many snaps. It might be of particular interest to Pollard that the Colts have channeled a good number of targets to opposing running backs – 85 in 12 games – so Elliott would seem less likely to benefit from that. Malik Davis ($1200 DK, $6500 FD) saw zero offensive snaps last week but might see his playing time improve in a blowout scenario.
WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS
CeeDee Lamb ($10800 DK, $14000 FD) might need to grind out his yardage against a Colts defense that generally limits the big play, but even if so he should be able to get it done that way. Stephon Gilmore continues to play well, but if nothing else Dallas gets Lamb into the slot reliably and should be able to avoid Gilmore on such plays. Michael Gallup ($6400 DK, $9000 FD) missed some practice time this week due to illness which is a shame, because the matchup is good for him if he can play up to his usual standards. Noah Brown ($4800 DK, $7000 FD) has gone silent lately but could pop back up here with the Colts playing without slot corner Kenny Moore. It's not clear how Dallas intends to split the playing time between WR4 candidates like Jalen Tolbert ($200 DK, $5000 FD), KaVontae Turpin ($200 DK, $5000 FD) or James Washington ($200 DK, $5000 FD). Rather than any receiver it might be Dalton Schultz ($5800 DK, $7500 FD) who projects as the second-leading pass catcher after Lamb. The Colts are allowing 8.0 yards per target at a 75.7 percent catch rate to tight ends, so that should mostly go to Schultz's benefit even though rookies Jake Ferguson ($2200 DK, $5500 FD) and Peyton Hendershot ($1800 DK, $5000 FD) are candidates to play 20 snaps or more.
It's deeply concerning for the Colts pass catchers that Matt Ryan needs to play against this Dallas pass rush, but the Colts receivers are capable for their own part and can make plays if Ryan throws viable targets. Michael Pittman ($9600 DK, $13000 FD) easily has the highest floor of those candidates, and is arguably still due for positive touchdown regression after catching only his second of the season last week. Parris Campbell ($5200 DK, $11000 FD) was phased out of the game plan last week after previously drawing targets at a rapid rate. When the Colts give Campbell viable routes he tends to produce, but in other games they decide to use him as a decoy to run clearing routes to the benefit of Pittman and others. Campbell is by far their best after-the-catch threat so it's a bizarre choice to use him for clearing routes, but perhaps there's a reason the Colts are bad. Alec Pierce ($3800 DK, $7500 FD) is the Colts' best downfield threat but that utility has predictably gone to waste with the now-noodle-armed Ryan. Ashton Dulin ($200 DK, $5500 FD) continues to poach a handful of snaps from Pierce each week. At tight end Jelani Woods ($4200 DK, $6000 FD) might be popular after catching eight passes for 98 yards this week, though Woods is questionable shoulder and quadriceps issues. Woods' usage could also lessen with the return of Kylen Granson ($2800 DK, $6000 FD), who sat during Woods' big game in Week 12. Mo Alie-Cox ($800 DK, $6000 FD) has only produced when given the opportunity but the Colts have decided it would be best not to do that.
KICKERS
Brett Maher ($4400 DK, $9500 FD) has quietly established himself as one of the league's best kickers, and one of the best long-range kickers specifically. Maher has well-documented 60-yard range and has made 7-of-9 attempts beyond 50 yards this year – a staggering number considering he's attempted only 22 field goals overall. Maher has gone over double-digit fantasy points five times in 11 games, including a 22-point outburst in Week 11. This could be another favorable spot for him.
Chase McClaughlin ($4000 DK, $8500 FD) is no slouch himself and can nearly match Maher's range, but with a slightly less reliable hit rate. While McClaughlin is less accurate than Maher and plays for a substantially worse offense, he's still surpassed double-digit fantasy points four times in 11 games.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The Cowboys ($6200 DK, $10000 FD) are priced up about as high as you'll see a defense in a showdown slate, but they could be a popular pick even so. The Dallas pass rush is of an All-Decade sort and as previously mentioned, Matt Ryan has completely fallen apart multiple times this year in far more favorable circumstances. Particularly with Braden Smith out at right tackle it's difficult to imagine how the Colts could possibly hide Ryan from the pass rush. KaVontae Turpin is the clear returner pairing if that strikes your curiosity, and Turpin indeed is a good bet to return a kick for a touchdown one of these days.
The Colts ($3200 DK, $8000 FD) just don't seem to have anything much going for them in this one in terms of expected outcome, but they do have a formidable pass rush in their front four, especially with Kwity Paye back. If the Colts can stop the Dallas ground game and keep Dallas in 3rd and long situations then that rush might be able to force a turnover or two from Dak Prescott. Still, it's expected that the Cowboys defense acts out this scenario to greater effect.
