Russell Wilson is no longer playing for the Seahawks. Wilson's now the quarterback for the Broncos, which might boost him up many personal draft boards. Is that a good idea? We'll break down his new situation to assess his fantasy value.
Upside
Wilson has had stretches of greatness the last two years. In 2020, when Seattle "Let Russ Cook" during the first nine games of the season, he had a 28:8 TD:INT while averaging 282 passing yards and rushing for 255 yards. He also started the 2021 season with a 7:0 TD:INT while averaging 298 yards in the first three games. Although Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are not as explosive as DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the Denver duo might be more versatile. Wilson also has an offensive line that looks better than the one he left, so he may have more time to let downfield plays develop. Finally, if coach Nathaniel Hackett makes Wilson the centerpiece of the offense, Wilson could surpass 550 pass attempts for the second time in his career, allowing him to post big fantasy numbers.
Downside
It's possible that Wilson is declining. Although he had a finger injury last year, he failed to throw for more than 260 yards in his last 11 games. And in six of those games, he threw for less than 210 yards. Also, in 2020, he threw for one or fewer TD in five of his last nine games, and he was held to fewer than 207 yards
Russell Wilson is no longer playing for the Seahawks. Wilson's now the quarterback for the Broncos, which might boost him up many personal draft boards. Is that a good idea? We'll break down his new situation to assess his fantasy value.
Upside
Wilson has had stretches of greatness the last two years. In 2020, when Seattle "Let Russ Cook" during the first nine games of the season, he had a 28:8 TD:INT while averaging 282 passing yards and rushing for 255 yards. He also started the 2021 season with a 7:0 TD:INT while averaging 298 yards in the first three games. Although Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are not as explosive as DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the Denver duo might be more versatile. Wilson also has an offensive line that looks better than the one he left, so he may have more time to let downfield plays develop. Finally, if coach Nathaniel Hackett makes Wilson the centerpiece of the offense, Wilson could surpass 550 pass attempts for the second time in his career, allowing him to post big fantasy numbers.
Downside
It's possible that Wilson is declining. Although he had a finger injury last year, he failed to throw for more than 260 yards in his last 11 games. And in six of those games, he threw for less than 210 yards. Also, in 2020, he threw for one or fewer TD in five of his last nine games, and he was held to fewer than 207 yards in five of his last eight games. During both of those rough stretches, he faced many teams that played their safeties deep, which limited the explosive plays that have made him special. The two-high safety look is the defensive style that many teams are now using, and if he can't solve it, his fantasy value will crater. If he struggles, the coaching staff may limit Wilson's pass attempts and opt for a balanced offense, which lowers his opportunities further.
The Verdict
Wilson will have the occasional big game, but there likely will be many mediocre performances like those we've seen over the last year and a half. With a scoring floor that's much lower than it was earlier in his career, he'll likely end the season outside the top-12 QBs. His best value likely will be a fantasy backup in single-QB leagues.
