NFL Picks: Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Best Bets for Week 4

NFL Picks: Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Best Bets for Week 4

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions

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After giving away the Week 2 game in the fourth quarter against the Falcons, the Eagles got back on track, beating the Saints last week to move to 2-1. Conversely, the Buccaneers upset the Lions to go to 2-0, but fell to 2-1 after getting embarrassed by the Broncos last weekend.

On the season, Tampa Bay scores 21 points per game. Meanwhile, their defense also allows 21 points per contest. On the other side, Philadelphia averages 23 points while giving up 21 per game.

These teams met twice last year. When the Eagles were flying high in Week 3, they blew out the Bucs 25-11. In the playoffs when Philly limped into the postseason, Tampa Bay destroyed them by a 32-9 score.

The Eagles enter as 2.5-point favorites. Also, the over/under number is at 45.. To find updated lines on this and all of the NFL games, go to to our NFL Odds and Lines page.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds 

Since losing A.J. Brown to a hamstring injury, the Eagles offense took a significant hit. After scoring 34 points with Brown playing in Week 1, the team dropped to 18 points per game against the Falcons and Saints. They were held scoreless through three quarters last week until Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert bailed out the offense in a 15-point fourth quarter. 

In similar fashion, the Buccaneers averaged 28.5 points in victories over the Commanders and Lions. But last week, between a lackluster running game and the inability to handle relentless Broncos pressure on Baker Mayfield on passing downs, Tampa Bay scored just seven points.

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Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Picks

The Buccaneers either need to do better running the ball on early downs, or they need to pass more when the defense anticipates the run. As we saw last week, when Baker Mayfield is in obvious passing situations, opposing defenses can dial up the pressure and derail the offense. If the team continues to play a predictable offense, the Eagles defense will make it a long day for them.

The Philadelphia offense faces a defense that is ravaged by injuries and generous to opposing rushing attacks. This may turn into a great week to lean on Saquon Barkley to shorten the game and keep their defense fresh. That would allow them to attack the Bucs defense.

With neither defense being incredible, the one major advantage in this game is the Philly offensive line against the Buccaneers' defensive front. Due to that edge, bettors should consider taking both the Eagles -2.5 and under 45.
 

Best Bet: Eagles -2.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction

With the Eagles Week 5 bye week on tap, I expect them to load up Barkley with work. That should allow the Eagles to set up play-action passes and misdirection rushes from Jalen Hurts. That said, it seems unlikely that the Eagles will light up the scoreboard. If they can get to 21 points, that should earn the win.

The best matchup that Tampa Bay has on offense features Chris Godwin and Mike Evans against the Eagles cornerbacks. Although it's a substantial advantage, Philadelphia will likely keep an extra safety deep, so Evans doesn't beat them downfield. As a result, Godwin may not be enough for the Bucs to keep up on the scoreboard.

I predict the Eagles will win, 23-17. So I'll take Philly minus 2.5 points along with under 45.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jim Coventry
Coventry was a finalist for the FSWA football writer of the year in 2022. He started playing fantasy football in 1994 and won a national contest in 1996. He also nabbed five top-50 finishes in national contests from 2008 to 2012 before turning his attention to DFS. He's been an industry analyst since 2007, though he joined RotoWire in 2016. A published author, Coventry wrote a book about relationships, "The Secret of Life", in 2013.
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