This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 13
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are three, seven, six, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.
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NFL Week 13 Odds
BYES: Ravens, Bills, Bears, Raiders, Vikings, Giants
Week 13 Schedule
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys -8.5 O/U 46.5 OPENED COWBOYS -3.5/45.5
TOTAL HAS NOW MOVED TO 47.0-47.5; COWBOYS AS HIGH AS -9.0
Los Angeles Chargers -6.0 at New England Patriots O/U 40.5 OPENED CHARGERS -1.5/42.5
TOTAL HAS NOW MOVED TO 39.5-40.0; CHARGERS NOW -5.0-5.5 BASED ON KEENAN ALLEN STATUS
Detroit Lions -4.0 at New Orleans Saints O/U 45.5 OPENED LIONS -1.5/46.5
SAINTS HAVE NUMEROUS KEY INJURIES
Atlanta Falcons -3.0 at New York Jets O/U 34.0 OPENED JETS -6.5/36.5
NOT MUCH FAITH IN THE FALCONS IN THIS SPOT, MONEY COMING IN ON JETS WHO ARE NOW +1.5 OR +2.0.
Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 O/U 39.5 OPENED STEELERS -6.5/40.0
TOTAL HAS POPPED UP TO 41.0-41.5
Indianapolis Colts -2.0 at Tennessee Titans O/U 43.0 OPENED TITANS -2.5/41.0
Miami Dolphins -9.5 at Washington Commanders O/U 50.5 OPENED DOLPHINS -3.5/49.0
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans -3.5 O/U 46.0 OPENED BRONCOS -4.0/44.0
TOTAL IS NOW 47.5
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5.0 O/U 37.0 OPENED BUCS -1.0/40.0
SEEING PANTHERS MONEY COMING IN, BUCS INJURY ISSUES ON BAKER MAYFIELD, CHRIS EVANS
San Francisco 49ers -3.0 at Philadelphia Eagles O/U 47.0 OPENED EAGLES -2.5/45.5
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Rams -5.0 O/U 39.5 OPENED BROWNS -1.0/43.0
LINE HAS COME DOWN ON RAMS TO -3.5
Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 at Green Bay Packers O/U 42.5 OPENED CHIEFS -5.5/41.0
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5 O/U 39.0 OPENED BENGALS -1.0/41.0
Week 13 Key Injury News
Jaguars - OT Cam Robinson (knee out 3-6 weeks)
Bucs - QB Baker Mayfield (ankle, MRI negative)
Eagles - TE Dallas Goedert (hoping to play Week 13), OL Lane Johnson (groin), LB Zach Cunningham (hamstring), DT Fletcher Cox (groin)
Browns - DE Myles Garrett (shoulder), WR Amari Cooper (ribs, Xrays negative), QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (concussion)
Saints - WR Chris Olave (concussion)
Panthers - Fired HC Frank Reich
Week 13 observations
We are reaching the point where line moves of 6 or greater are the threshold for a writeup. Most games have had line moves of at least 3 points with a lot based on quarterback situations. Weather will start to become a factor in outdoor games in the Northern states, so keep an eye on it.
Highest point spread – Dolphins/Commanders -9.5
Lowest point spread – Colts/Titans -2.0
Highest total – Dolphins/Commanders 50.5
Lowest total – Falcons/Jets 34.0
Four games with totals over 46.0 - Seahawks/Cowboys, Dolphins/Commanders, Broncos/Texans, 49ers/Eagles
Four games with totals of 39 or less – Falcons/Jets, Panthers/Bucs, Browns/Rams, Bengals/Jaguars
Three games with lines at least -7.5 or higher – Seahawks/Cowboys, Dolphins/Commanders, Bengals/Jaguars
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NFL Week 13 Line Movement: Atlanta Falcons 
at New York Jets 
This game originally opened at Jets -6.5 and every game from here on out will probably have a significant line move based on the Aaron Rodgers injury and terrible backup quarterback play.
The Falcons are now -3.0 favorites which seems low, even though this is a total of a 9.5-point line move. The total opened at a low number of 36.5 and has dropped to 34.0. I can see this total continuing to drop based on the terrible offenses and strong Jets defense.
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NFL Week 13 Line Movement: Miami Dolphins 
at Washington Commanders 
The Dolphins opened as -3.5 road favorites and reopened last week at -6.5. There has been another three-point move in favor of Miami, bringing them to -9.5 road favorites. The total has also moved up from 49.0 to 50.5.
The Commanders have lost three in a row and five out of their last six, including an embarrassing home loss to the Giants, 31-12. Their passing defense has been shredded repeatedly and now gets to face the fast-paced Miami Dolphins.
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NFL Week 13 Line Movement: Denver Broncos 
at Houston Texans 
The Broncos have won five in a row, yet find themselves as three-point underdogs in a game with an original open of Denver as -4.0 road favorites. The Houston Texans have been impressive under head coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, and they are now favored by -3.0 or even crossing over to -3.5.
The Texans lost at home to the Jaguars, 24-21, in a battle for control in the AFC South. Believe it or not, the Broncos, who are also 6-5, are now looking at a potential playoff spot. Both teams are projected to have a 41 percent chance to make the playoffs.
The total has seen an uptick going from 44.0 to 46.0.
NFL Week 13 Line Movement: Cleveland Browns 
at Los Angeles Rams 
The Browns originally opened as one-point road favorites, but they just cannot buy a break as quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Myles Garrett, and Amari Cooper are listed as questionable. The Rams are now five-point home favorites for a full six-point line move. This number could climb as high as seven if all three players listed above are ruled out.
The total has taken a hit as well going from the opening number of 43.0 and now sitting at 39.0.
NFL Week 13 Line Movement: Cincinnati Bengals 
at Jacksonville Jaguars 
Another huge line swing to the other side in this one, as the Bengals originally opened as -1.0 road favorites. But injuries on the Bengals' side, along with a strong performance by the Jaguars (8-3) now have the Jags as -8.5 point home favorites.
The Bengals are already without quarterback Joe Burrow and could also be down Tee Higgins, who is listed as questionable. The total opened low at 41.0 and has gone down to 39.0.
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