Dolphins vs. Steelers Monday Night Football Best Bets

NFL Picks: Dolphins vs. Steelers Odds, Picks, and Predictions for MNF Week 15

Cap off the NFL Week 15 action with our NFL picks for Monday Night Football. The Miami Dolphins (6-7) travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers (7-6) in an AFC conference matchup on Monday Night Football. The Dolphins are coming in on a four game winning streak after blowing out the Jets 34-10, while the Steelers are off a huge divisional win against the Ravens 27-22.

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Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds

• Dolphins +3.0 (Bet365 -105)  / Steelers -3.0 (DraftKings -110)  
• Dolphins ML (BetRivers +155) / Steelers ML (Caesars -165)
• Total OVER 41.5 (Bet365 -110) / UNDER 42.5 (DraftKings -115) 
• Dolphins total points: Over 19.5 (DraftKings) / Under 19.5 (DraftKings)
• Steelers total points:  Over 22.5 (BetRivers) / Under 22.5 (BetRivers) 
• First-half spread: Dolphins +1.5 (Caesars -110) / Steelers -1.5 (FanDuel +105)            
• First-half total: Over 20.5 (FanDuel) / Under 20.5 (DraftKings)
• First-half team total: 
  • Dolphins Over/Under 9.5 (FanDuel) 
  • Steelers Over/Under 10.5 (FanDuel)      
• Weather - Clear, 19 degrees

The Steelers opened as 2.5-point home favorites, and it reopened at -3.0. The line has bounced around from -3.0 to -3.5 all week.    

The total opened at 44.5 and reopened on December 7th at 43.5.  It immediately dropped to 42.5 and then 41.5 before climbing back up to 42.5. 

The majority of the bets (54%) have come in on the Dolphins, and the handle is 63 percent on Miami also, which is indicative of where the SHARP money is coming from. 

The total has 75 percent of bets on the OVER, but only 59 percent of the money.  The moneyline is on the Steelers at 84% of the bets and 76% of the money. 

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Key Injuries

The two biggest injuries impacting this game is De'Von Achane and T.J. Watt. The Steelers are just 1-10 without Watt.  As of Monday morning, Achane is expected to be a full go. 

You can follow all the NFL injury news here at RotoWire.

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Dolphins vs. Steelers Betting Picks 

When I was researching this game, one thing that struck me was that Miami is on a four-game winning streak, which has been flying under the radar a bit, given its tough start to the season. I am still not sold on the Dolphins, but the Steelers are not much better. The Dolphins defense has allowed 10, 17, 13, and 13 points in this four-game stretch. 

Achane being a full go tonight and no Watt is the key for me, and I look for the Dolphins to grind out a low-scoring, close game. The Dolphins are still mathematically alive for the playoffs in the AFC, and the Steelers know they need to win against the Ravens in Week 18. 

BETTING TRENDS

• The Dolphins are 2-10 ATS and SU as road underdogs between 0.0 - 3.5 points in their last 12 games
• Pittsburgh has won 22 straight at home on Monday Night Football
• The Steelers are 1-10 without T.J. Watt
• Tua Tagovailoa is 1-7 when the temperature at kickoff is 40 degrees or less
• Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games.
• Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
• Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games against Pittsburgh.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games against Miami.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games at home.
• Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami.

NFL Team Rankings

Dolphins vs. Steelers Best Bets

• Dolphins/Steelers UNDER 42.5 points for 1 unit (Bet365 -110)
• Dolphins +3.5 for 1 unit (Fanatics -115)
• De'Von Achane OVER 16.5 rushing attempts for 0.5 unit (Caesars -134)

Dolphins vs. Steelers Predictions

This is a challenging game to handicap, as several key trends conflict with each other, and there are also significant injuries that will impact the outcome of this game. 

Achane posted 22, 21, and 22 rushing attempts in the three previous games prior to the Jets game last week. The Steelers' run defense has been gashed for 249 and 217 yards in the last two games on 91 attempts. 

If the Dolphins can establish their running game, they can control the clock in this cold-weather Monday night game. 

Dolphins 20, Steelers 19