This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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NFL Championship Games: Props and Predictions
I had a good week last weekend hitting with my Bills +1.5, Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown -165 and Joe Mixon Anytime Touchdown +165. My prop bet on A.J. Brown's yardage went under unfortunately. I'm reduced to a two-game slate this week which is less of a pool to choose from but on the plus side, we can focus on fewer games Let's see what looks good for Sunday'.
Player Anytime Touchdowns
Jayden Daniels +230 FanDuel
Daniel has six rushing touchdowns on the season, but none in the last six games. That's the bad news. The good news is he has 29 rushing attempts over his last two games and it's not unusual to see teams run their quarterback more during the playoffs. The six-game touchdown drought has likely raised these odds to this point and this is a good value with other sites only offering this at +160.
Xavier Worthy +195 FanDuel, DeVonta Smith +190 DraftKings
I like both of these plays as these guys are capable of hitting a long touchdown at any point during a game. Worthy has two touchdowns in his last three meaningful games and Smith has eight touchdowns on the season including four in his last four regular season games. The games have healthy over/unders at 47.5 and 48.5 respectively, so we should see plenty of touchdowns.
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Player Props
Saquon Barkley Under 128.5 Rushing Yards DraftKings
Yes, I know what he's done as of late so this could end up making me look very foolish especially since he's gone over this mark both times he's faced Washington. However, the majority of bettors take the over on props (the sportsbooks know this) and this just seems like too big of a number. Given the Eagles dominant running game, I expect the Commanders to crowd the line of scrimmage and make a banged up Jalen Hurts try to beat them through the air.
Amari Cooper Over 16.5 Receiving Yards FanDuel
I love props where it might take only one play for the over to hit. Cooper has said all of the right things since becoming a Buffalo Bill and hasn't pouted despite seeing a sharp decline in targets since his trade. I actually like that he's coming off a game with a 0-1-0 line and the Chiefs are below-average against opposing wide receivers, ranking 19th against the position. I might also wait on taking this and watch to see how much it goes down during the game if he's not targeted over the first quarter or two and take it in the live odds.
