Best NFL Week 15 PrizePicks Plays
Best PrizePicks Picks current as of 11:45 AM ET Sunday.
Woody Marks 14.5 Fantasy Score (MORE)
Arizona's defense ranks dead last in schedule-adjusted DVOA against opposing running backs over the last five games. That metric simply confirms what the tape and matchup history already show: despite not facing a single top-10 rushing team during this stretch, Arizona has consistently been gashed on the ground.
Now let's talk about the player. Marks has emerged for Houston with Joe Mixon sidelined all season and Nick Chubb looking like a shell of himself. Chubb is out for Week 15, which should put Marks -- who received 26 carries last week -- in a true bell-cow role. Marks racked up just 68 yards on the ground in Week 14, but he gets a much softer matchup against the Cardinals than he had against the Chiefs.
Marcus Mariota 30.5 Rushing Yards (MORE)
Many people know the Giants are allowing some of the most rushing yards in the league, and running backs aren't the only ones doing damage. Quarterbacks have recorded the third most rushing yards against New York this season. On top of that, Washington has one of the highest rates of designed quarterbacks runs in the league, which helps explain why Mariota logged at least 49 rushing yards in each of his last two starts.
If the Commanders can establish the run even without Chris Rodriguez, that should open up plenty of play-action opportunities and create scramble lanes and read-option keepers for Mariota to take advantage of.
Mitchell Tinsley 6 Fantasy Score (MORE)
Tee Higgins will once again be out for the Bengals-Ravens matchup, just as he was on Thanksgiving. Whenever Higgins or Ja'Marr Chase has missed time this season, I've typically attacked Mike Gesicki props, but the market has finally adjusted, making those lines less appealing.
What really stood out from that Thanksgiving game was Tinsley's usage. He finished third on the team in routes run and second in targets with nine, trailing only Chase's 14. Tinsley has received high praise since arriving in Cincinnati but didn't fully capitalize on his Turkey Day opportunities, recording two catches, two drops and a miscommunication with quarterback Joe Burrow that looked like it could have been a walk-in touchdown.
Cincinnati remains a pass-heavy offense, and Baltimore continues to operate as a pass-funnel defense. That combination puts Tinsley firmly in play at this low threshold.
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