NFL Game Previews: Week 18 Sunday Matchups

Tampa Bay (+4) at Atlanta, o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

No, that spread isn't a typo. If there's any doubt about whether the Buccaneers will rest key personnel in a game with nothing on the line for them, Todd Bowles has already said third-string QB Kyle Trask – last year's second-round pick who has yet to get any action in an NFL game – will be active. How active is the question. There is an argument to be made that Tom Brady and company should still get a significant workload to keep their momentum going after the offense finally showed up last week against Carolina and Mike Evans tried to pack a season's worth of production into one afternoon, but instead those in attendance will probably be treated to Trask or Blaine Gabbert completing passes to Deven Thompkins and Ko Kieft. Tampa Bay doesn't yet know for sure who it'll be hosting in the wild-card round – it'll probably be the Cowboys, but this is Chaos Season, after all – but that will be decided in the late window, so there isn't even a scoreboard-watching element to when Brady et al might make their exits.

Purely from a fan perspective, if the game isn't going to impact the standings or the playoff picture, a Trask (the 64th overall pick in 2021) vs. Desmond Ridder (74th overall in 2022) matchup actually has some appeal. The Falcons' quarterback of the future (maybe?) picked up his first NFL win last week, but he's still looking for his first NFL touchdown, which isn't exactly encouraging. In his defense, Ridder basically only has Drake London to throw to. Tyler Allgeier has taken over the lead role in the backfield, collecting 348 scrimmage yards and two rushing TDs in Ridder's three starts, and he'll remain the focal point of the offense for now. Will that be enough to beat Tampa's backups? If it is, it could bump Atlanta out of the top 10 in the 2023 draft, but it's not like this roster has any veterans left to bench in an effort to avoid that.

The Skinny

TB injuries: WR Julio Jones (questionable, knee)
ATL injuries: QB Marcus Mariota (IR, knee), TE Kyle Pitts (IR, knee)

TB DFS targets: Chris Godwin $7,200 DK / $7,500 FD (ATL 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)
ATL DFS targets: none

TB DFS fades: none
ATL DFS fades: Falcons DST $2,400 DK / $3,400 FD (31st in sacks, TB first in sacks allowed)

Key stat: TB 22nd in third-down conversions at 36.9 percent; ATL 31st in third-down defense at 45.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 TB, average score 30-26 TB, average margin of victory nine points. TB has won five straight meetings by an average score of 35-22

The Scoop: Rachaad White leads the TB backfield with 60 yards. Brady hits Godwin for a score before calling it a day, and Trask finds Breshad Perriman late. Allgeier bangs out 80 yards and a touchdown, while Ridder throws for under 200 yards but does toss his first career score to London. Buccaneers 20-17

New England (+7.5) at Buffalo, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The motivation on the Patriots' end of this is clear. A win, and they lock up the final wild-card spot in the AFC, avoid giving Bill Belichick his second losing record in the last three years, and can pretend that final play against the Raiders never happened. New England's only won two of itslast six games though, and one of those losses was a 24-10 dud at home against Buffalo, so its hopes might rest on getting help from the likes of the Browns and (ugh) Jets – although that back-door path to the playoffs might already be closed if the Jags don't win the AFC South on Saturday. Mac Jones has had a couple decent games in a row, tossing multiple TDs in consecutive games for the first time all year, but that's happened while the running game has stalled. This team isn't built to win via its offense anyway. In fact, the Pats' last four wins have all featured either a defensive touchdown, or in the case of that wacky Week 11 win against the Jets, a last-minute punt return TD. Josh Allen and the Bills have been somewhat generous when it comes to turnovers, so if the upset's going to happen, that's the likeliest route.

The league's decision to not continue Monday's game against the Bengals was absolutely the correct one – the focus should remain on Damar Hamlin's recovery – but it does create a potentially awkward situation with regard to the AFC title game. Hey, maybe Kansas City loses to Las Vegas on Saturday, and a win here for the Bills gives them the top seed anyway and forces everyone else to go through Buffalo to get to the Super Bowl. At the very least, the team will be playing for Hamlin (and to force a potential conference final against K.C. to be shifted to a neutral site), so while you never really know what the Bills' mental state might be coming into this one after what happened Monday, I think the odds are pretty good that at least for these three hours, they aren't going to want to let their teammate down -- not to mention maybe wanting to get a little payback for all those years of misery at the hands of Belichick. Allen produced multiple touchdowns in five straight games prior to Monday, amassing an 11:3 TD:INT with three rushing scores over that stretch while Buffalo averaged 27.8 points a game and won all five, and New England couldn't slow him down much in their first meeting.

The Skinny

NE injuries: WR Jakobi Meyers (questionable, shoulder)
BUF injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

NE DFS targets: Patriots DST $2,200 DK / $4,000 FD (second in sacks, t-2nd in takeaways, BUF t-29th in giveaways)
BUF DFS targets: none

NE DFS fades: Rhamondre Stevenson $6,700 DK / $6,600 FD (BUF third in rushing DVOA, fourth in rushing yards per game allowed), Hunter Henry $3,300 DK / $5,000 FD (BUF second in DVOA vs. TE) 
BUF DFS fades: Stefon Diggs $7,900 DK / $8,400 FD (NE third in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: NE 32nd in red-zone conversions at 41.5 percent; BUF first in red-zone defense at 44.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 7-5 NE, average score 20-20, average margin of victory 15 points. BUF has won three straight meetings and five of the last six, including a 47-17 thrashing in the wild-card round last season

Weather notes: temperature in the low 30s

The Scoop: Stevenson leads the NE backfield with 60 combined yards. Jones throws for 210 yards and a TD to Meyers. Devin Singletary picks up 80 yards, while James Cook adds 50. Allen throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Gabe Davis while running in a score, but he also tosses a pick-six to Myles Bryant to keep things close. Bills 23-17

Minnesota at Chicago (+7.5), o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

While nothing's set in stone yet, most likely the Vikings are looking at the third seed in the NFC, and a home playoff date with the Giants in the wild-card round. Fans who are disappointed that they no longer have a shot at a first-round bye may want to stare for a while at Minnesota's minus-19 point differential and be thankful they're even in the postseason. They should be more disappointed that the Vikes blew their chance last week to kick Aaron Rodgers out of the playoffs, but that's water under the bridge. The fallout from that ugly loss might be that the team doesn't rest their starters in this one, or at least not until the game is well in hand, so there's less cause for concern if you're staking your fantasy fortunes on Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson or Dalvin Cook. Coach Kevin O'Connell has also been using the M-word (momentum) this week, so they might even feel the need to wipe away last week's disaster with a rout.

Shoutout to Bears coach Matt Eberflus, who is clearly a loyal reader of this article. Last week I suggested it was Nathan Peterman time if Chicago wanted to have a real shot at the No. 1 pick in next year's draft. Lo and behold, who's going to be under center for the team this week? Ya boi Nate and his career 3:13 TD:INT. Now, most of those nightmarish numbers came in 2017-18 with Buffalo, and maybe he's learned a thing or two about ball security since then, but on the other hand he threw five garbage-time passes for the Bears in Week 16 and one of them got picked off on a failed Hail Mary where the four closest people to the ball when it came down were all Bills, so it seems like he's still got it. This might be one of those amazing "resistable force versus movable object" clashes where anything can happen, as the Vikings' secondary has been making QBs look good all year – I mean, Mac Jones lit them up for 382 yards and two TDs – but I just can't bring myself to believe Peterman won't Peterman this one up.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
CHI injuries: QB Justin Fields (out, hip), WR Darnell Mooney (IR, ankle)

MIN DFS targets: Cousins $6,500 DK / $7,700 FD (CHI 31st in passing DVOA, 30th in YPA allowed), Cook $7,300 DK / $8,000 FD and Alexander Mattison $5,100 DK / $7,000 FD (CHI 30th in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed), Jefferson $9,100 DK / $9,000 FD (CHI 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
CHI DFS targets: Peterman $4,800 DK / $6,200 FD (MIN 31st in passing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPA allowed)

MIN DFS fades: K.J. Osborn $4,700 DK / $6,000 FD (CHI sixth in DVOA vs. WR3)
CHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIN eighth in red-zone conversions at 62.7 percent; CHI 29th in red-zone defense at 64.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 MIN, average score 20-19 MIN, average margin of victory eight points. The last eight meetings at Soldier Field have had an average score of 20-14

Weather notes: temperature in the low 30s

The Scoop: Cook sprints for 100 yards and a TD. Cousins throws for 240 yards and two scores, finding Jefferson and Adam Thielen before calling it a day. David Montgomery leads the CHI backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown. Peterman throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Vikings 24-7

Baltimore (+7) at Cincinnati, o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Had the Bengals lost Monday night last week, the Ravens would roll into this one with a chance to win the AFC North. Instead, Cincy's now locked into the division title by virtue of winning percentage, even if Baltimore winds up sweeping the season series here. Since that's not exactly fair to the Ravens, the compromise is that if they win Sunday, and then face the Bengals in the wild-card round, a coin toss will determine who gets to host it. Umm, OK. Baltimore's gone 2-2 without Lamar Jackson under center, with Tyler Huntley topping out at 138 passing yards during that stretch, so there's no reason to expect the team's passing game to wake up as long as Jackson remains sidelined – or indeed the entire offense, as the Ravens haven't scored more than 17 points since Week 12. The defense also hasn't allowed more than 16 points during that stretch, which is how they've managed to scrape their way into the playoffs in the first place. At least J.K. Dobbins has a solid floor, running for almost 100 yards a game while Jackson's been out.

The Bengals have still won seven straight, I guess? I'm not sure how to factor in the Monday nighter. Their motivation for this game becomes a lot murkier since they can't get that first-round bye and can't lose the AFC North, but a chance for the No. 2 seed, division rivalry and a desire not to be swept by the Ravens, and wanting to regain their momentum and shake off the Bills' non-game should all help keep Cincy's starters on the field. Joe Burrow's tossed multiple TDs in four straight and has a 17:6 TD:INT with a 68.7 percent completion rate and a 7.5 YPA over the winning streak, and even though it didn't end up counting, he'd already hit Tyler Boyd for a score before Monday's game got stopped. The Ravens did harass Burrow into a poor showing in Week 5, but the Bengals' offensive line has come around since then and Calais Campbell isn't 100 percent, so he should get a bit more time in the pocket this time around, and Burrow might not need more than an extra second to pick apart a secondary that's still dealing with a bunch of injuries.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: QB Jackson (out, knee), QB Huntley (questionable, shoulder), WR DeSean Jackson (questionable, illness), WR Rashod Bateman (IR, foot), WR Devin Duvernay (IR, foot) 
CIN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

BAL DFS targets: Jackson $3,000 DK / $5,100 FD (CIN 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)
CIN DFS targets: none

BAL DFS fades: none
CIN DFS fades: Joe Mixon $7,100 DK / $7,500 FD (BAL third in rushing yards per game allowed, third in YPC allowed)

Key stat: BAL 28th in red-zone conversions at 46.4 percent; CIN 11th in red-zone defense at 53.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 BAL, average score 26-20 BAL, average margin of victory 17 points. Prior to BAL's 19-17 victory in Week 5, the previous five meetings had been decided by 20 points or more 

Weather notes: 5-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Dobbins gains 80 yards and a touchdown. Huntley throws for under 200 yards and finds DeSean for a score, but he also loses a fumble that Logan Wilson returns to the house. Mixon grinds out 60 yards. Burrow throws for 290 yards and three TDs, hitting Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Samaje Perine. Bengals 31-14

Houston (+2.5) at Indianapolis, o/u 38 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Will the Texans actually blow the top pick in the 2023 draft? Will they care? Last week's blowout loss to the Jaguars suggests they are well aware of what could be at stake if they win another game, but the three before that indicate they don't actually suck any more, as they took Super Bowl contenders Kansas City and Dallas down to the wire before downing the Titans. To be fair to Houston, their ability to select a new franchise QB might not be impacted at all if Chicago picks first, as the Bears would almost certainly go for Will Anderson; the danger would come if someone else trades up into that spot. Anyway, in the here and now, Davis Mills remains not good, their backfield is made up of a bunch of journeymen, and Brandin Cooks is still wondering what he's doing here. Lovie Smith has the secondary playing way over their heads though, and that's without last year's third overall pick, Derek Stingley, missing the entire second half of the season.

The Texans may have a worse record, but the Colts are almost unquestionably the worst team in the league right now. Jim Irsay's Hail Mary hiring of Jeff Saturday has blown up in his face, and Indy's six-game losing streak doesn't do justice to how badly they've been outclassed lately, especially after halftime. Sam Ehlinger and his 5.5 YPA are back in charge of the offense, because sure, why not. Zack Moss has been the lone semi-bright spot the last few games, but he's also benefitted from facing a bunch of soft run defenses, a trend that will continue here. A win for the Colts might drop them from the fifth to the sixth pick in next year's draft, but other than the Texans there aren't any other teams who will clearly be QB-hunting ahead of them (maybe the Seahawks will use the Broncos' pick on one, if they don't re-sign Geno Smith). I'm not sure you would be able to tell the difference if they were intentionally playing to lose anyway.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: RB Dameon Pierce (IR, ankle), WR Nico Collins (IR, foot)
IND injuries: QB Nick Foles (out, ribs), RB Jonathan Taylor (IR, ankle), TE Kylen Granson (out, ankle)

HOU DFS targets: Texans DST $2,700 DK / $4,000 FD (IND 31st in sacks allowed, 32nd in giveaways)
IND DFS targets: Moss $5,200 DK / $6,800 FD (HOU 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed)

HOU DFS fades: none
IND DFS fades: Parris Campbell $4,300 DK / $5,800 FD (HOU seventh in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: IND 31st in red-zone conversions at 44.2 percent; HOU 18th in red-zone defense at 56.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 9-2-1 IND, average score 25-17 IND, average margin of victory 10 points. IND has won four straight meetings prior to a 20-20 tie in Week 1

The Scoop: Royce Freeman leads the HOU backfield with 50 yards. Mills throws for 210 yards and a TD to Cooks. Moss scampers for 100 yards and a score. Ehlinger throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Texans 16-10

N.Y. Jets at Miami (+1.5), o/u 38.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Jets' lack of a quarterback caught up to them down the stretch, and last week's loss in Seattle ended their playoff hopes, and chances of a winning season for that matter. The defense still took a massive step forward in Robert Saleh's second year though, and with Breece Hall back in 2023 and and a talented receiving corps awaiting whoever takes over under center (I've been stumping for a Jimmy Garoppolo reunion with Saleh for weeks, but what if the franchise made amends with Geno Smith? The mind boggles), Gang Green should be a legit contender next season. In the meantime, they get a chance to help ruin the Dolphins' year, which is always nice. The Jets' year will also end as it began, with Joe Flacco at QB, which feels right somehow. It may not make much difference to the final score, but Garrett Wilson and Corey Davis are probably thrilled it isn't Zach Wilson.

The Dolphins' season is in as much of a tailspin as the Jets', and for much the same reason. Without Tua Tagovailoa in peak form, the offense and the team don't have an identity, and Miami's dropped five straight. The team's given up an average of 27.4 points in the five losses, and without Tua, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle posting absurd numbers, that's been too big a hole to climb out of. Miami can still grab a wild-card spot with a win and a Patriots loss to the Bills, but Mike McDaniel's crew will have to do it with seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson at quarterback, and, well, he's no Brock Purdy.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: QB Mike White (questionable, ribs), RB Hall (IR, knee)

MIA injuries: QB Tagovailoa (out, concussion), QB Teddy Bridgewater (questionable, finger)

NYJ DFS targets: Tyler Conklin $3,600 DK / $5,100 FD (MIA 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

MIA DFS targets: none

NYJ DFS fades: none

MIA DFS fades: Thompson $4,800 DK / $6,400 FD (NYJ second in passing yards per game allowed, second in YPA allowed, second in passing TDs allowed), Hill $8,600 DK / $8,600 FD (NYJ fourth in DVOA vs. WR1), Waddle $7,300 DK / $7,200 FD (NYJ fifth in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: MIA t-23rd in third-down conversions at 36.6 percent; NYJ 12th in third-down defense at 38.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 MIA, average score 21-17 MIA, average margin of victory 11 points. MIA has won six straight home meetings since their venue was re-named Hard Rock Stadium, with NYJ's last win in the building coming when it was called Sun Life Stadium in 2014. (The Jets' starting QB for that 37-24 win in the final week of the season? Geno Smith...)

Weather notes: 10-11 mph wind

The Scoop: Ty Johnson leads the NYJ backfield with 60 yards and a score. Flacco throws for 270 yards and two TDs, finding Conklin and Wilson. Raheem Mostert leads the MIA backfield with 80 combined yards, but Jeff Wilson vultures a touchdown. Thompson throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Jets 21-10

Carolina (+3.5) at New Orleans, o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Well, it was too much to ask of Sam Darnold that he stop Tom Brady from making the playoffs, I suppose. Even though his three turnovers did end the Panthers' season, Darnold did throw for three Tds and 341 yards, tying the career high he set as a rookie in Week 16 of the 2018 season against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Must be something about facing Hall of Fame QBs that brings out the best in him. Carolina hasn't indicated it will officially rest any starters, but D'Onta Foreman picked up a knee issue in practice late in the week, and given his history (and lack of a contract for 2023) it would make sense for Chuba Hubbard to get the start in the backfield instead. DJ Moore will also be looking to extend a three-game scoring streak, and he's caught a TD with at least 73 receiving yards in four of Darnold's five starts.

The Saints could tie the Bucs's record at 8-9, but they already got swept by Tampa in the season series so they're also already eliminated from the playoffs. New Orleans has won three straight games though, and the team hasn't allowed more than 20 points in seven straight as the defense has quietly been one of the best units in the league ever since shutting out the Raiders back in Week 8. Dennis Allen is exactly the kind of coach who would want to finish a disappointing season with a meaningless win, and he'll run his starters out there, but whether Andy Dalton, Alvin Kamara etc. stay on the field through to the bitter end could depend on the scoreboard.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: RB Foreman (questionable, knee)
NO injuries: QB/TE/?? Taysom Hill (questionable, back), RB Mark Ingram (IR, knee), WR Michael Thomas (IR, toe), WR Jarvis Landry (IR, ankle), TE Juwan Johnson (questionable, quadriceps)

CAR DFS targets: Shi Smith $3,300 DK / $5,200 FD (NO 29th in DVOA vs. WR3)
NO DFS targets: none

CAR DFS fades: Darnold $5,300 DK / $6,800 FD (NO third in passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed, t-3rd in passing TDs allowed), Terrace Marshall $3,400 DK / $5,500 FD (NO fourth in DVOA vs. WR2), Tommy Tremble $2,500 DK / $4,800 FD (NO first in DVOA vs. TE)
NO DFS fades: none

Key stat: NO 14th in third-down conversions at 40.8 percent; CAR 25th in third-down defense at 41.7 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 9-3 NO, average score 25-19 NO, average margin of victory 13 points. NO had won five of six meetings prior to a 22-14 CAR victory in Week 3

The Scoop: Hubbard piles up 90 yards and a TD. Darnold throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Moore. Kamara responds with 110 scrimmage yards and a score. Dalton throws for 260 yards and two TDs, hitting Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Saints 24-23

Cleveland (+2.5) at Pittsburgh, o/u 40 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

At 7-9 and winners of four of their last six, the Browns have a chance to be the best team to be the worst team in their division, which is something, I guess. (OK, playing spoiler against the Steelers is probably a more motivating factor for them.) Given Deshaun Watson's late start to his Cleveland tenure, Kevin Stefanski will probably keep his offensive starters on the field all game, but Watson looked like he was beginning to shake off the last of his rust last week with three TDs and a 9.4 YPA against the Commanders. Nick Chubb also has an outside shot at the rushing crown if Josh Jacobs does little Saturday (Chubb is 160 yards behind – his season high is 141, but he popped 161 as recently as Week 5 of last year and has beaten 160 two other times in his career), so if he manages to rip off a big gain or two early, the watch could be on.

As recently as three weeks ago, the Steelers were given a 0.2 percent chance to make the playoffs, but here they are going into the final game of the season not dead yet. That said, their odds aren't great. Not only do they need to beat a semi-surging Browns squad, they need the Patriots and Dolphins to both lose. Of course, that's better than last season's scenario when they needed the Colts to somehow lose to the 2-14 Jaguars, and what were the chances of that happening? Pittsburgh's gotten themselves into this position with three straight wins, and there's also the matter of making sure Mike Tomlin doesn't get stuck with his first ever losing season, so the team will be going all out. The Steelers' version of all out basically means a game where both teams can't get out of the teens in points, though – the average score in their last six games is 19-14, win or lose. Najee Harris has 469 scrimmage yards and four TDs over those six games while Kenny Pickett focuses on the "don't screw up" part of his job description, while T.J. Watt has led the charge for the defense with 3.5 sacks in the last four contests. Never let it be said the Steelers don't know who they are.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
PIT injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

CLE DFS targets: none
PIT DFS targets: George Pickens $5,000 DK / $5,900 FD (CLE 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)

CLE DFS fades: none
PIT DFS fades: Steven Sims $3,000 DK / $5,200 FD (CLE seventh in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: CLE t-22nd in red-zone conversions at 51.9 percent; PIT 12th in red-zone defense at 53.3 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 7-4-1 PIT, average score 24-21 PIT, average margin of victory nine points. PIT has won 18 straight regular-season meetings at Heinz Field (now Acrisure Stadium), but CLE did win 48-37 in last season's wild-card round. CLE's last regular-season win in Pittsburgh came in Week 5 of 2003, as Tim Couch threw two TDs while Tommy Maddox tossed a pick-six to Daylon McCutcheon in a 33-13 victory

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-30s

The Scoop: Chubb churns out 120 yards and a score. Watson throws for 230 yards but gets sacked four times. Harris manages 80 yards and a TD, while Pickett throws for under 200 yards but does find Pat Freiermuth for what proves to be the game-winning touchdown. Steelers 14-13

L.A. Chargers (+1) at Denver, o/u 40 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

This game might end up being meaningless to the Bolts, as a Ravens loss earlier in the day locks them into the fifth seed and a trip to the AFC South winner. As such, it's tough to predict exactly how much playing time Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler etc. will get. The main guys will probably start, but if they don't need a win, we could end up seeing a lot of Chase Daniel and Larry Rountree instead. The Chargers do have a good thing going though, winning four straight and recording double-digit wins this season for the first time since 2018, so Brandon Staley may start fretting about momentum and that sort of thing. Staley may also want to wake Herbert up – he has a bizarrely quiet 3:3 TD:INT in those four wins with a 73.7 percent completion rate but just a 7.4 YPA, and the third-year QB is not the first guy you think of when the term 'game manager' comes up. Getting Herbert big numbers against the Broncos secondary won't be easy, but he has done it before, including 303 yards and two touchdowns in Denver last season.

The Broncos' main goal in this game is to try and make sure they aren't handing a top-three pick over to the Seahawks from the Russell Wilson trade. Denver's lost seven of its last eight, with the one win coming against a Kyler Murray-less Cards squad, and Wilson needs two TD passes here to avoid having fewer touchdowns than games played. Reminder: the 34-year-old quarterback has three more years left on his contract before the team can plausibly get rid of him. Nathaniel Hackett's disastrous tenure probably buys Wilson another year to prove his 2022 was an aberration, but if he struggles again next year under a more reputable head coach... yikes. It's not like he won't have talent around him – Javonte Williams, Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton is a pretty nice set of weapons even before you factor in the development of someone like Greg Dulcich – so there is still some hope. Whether that's enough hope for someone like Jim Harbaugh to jump aboard is the big question to be answered this offseason.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
DEN injuries: RB Williams (IR, knee), WR Kendall Hinton (out, hamstring), WR KJ Hamler (IR, hamstring), WR Tim Patrick (IR, knee), TE Dulcich (IR, hamstring)

LAC DFS targets: none
DEN DFS targets: Latavius Murray $5,400 DK / $6,400 FD (LAC 28th in rushing DVOA, 32nd in YPC allowed)

LAC DFS fades: Herbert $6,800 DK / $7,500 FD (DEN fourth in passing DVOA, first in YPA allowed, t-3rd in passing TDs allowed), Joshua Palmer $5,500 DK / $5,900 FD (DEN second in DVOA vs. WR3)
DEN DFS fades: Sutton $4,800 DK / $6,400 FD (LAC second in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: DEN 32nd in third-down conversions at 28.4 percent; LAC 16th in third-down defense at 39.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 DEN, average score 21-18 LAC, average margin of victory eight points. DEN has won three straight meetings and eight of the last nine at Empower Field at Mile High, and I remain baffled that the naming rights haven't been sold to a cannabis company yet (Sweet Mary Jane Field at Mile High?)

Weather notes: no weather-related concerns

The Scoop: Joshua Kelley leads the LAC backfield with 60 yards and a TD. Herbert throws a score to Gerald Everett before calling it a day. Murray gains 80 yards. Wilson throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Jeudy. Chargers 17-16

N.Y. Giants (+14) at Philadelphia, o/u 43 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Giants not only have their first playoff appearance since 2016 in the bag, they're locked into the sixth seed in the NFC, and Brian Daboll has said he'll "do what's best for the team" when it comes to playing his starters. You do the math. It should mean one more chance for poor cursed Tyrod Taylor to show he can be a quality starting QB in the NFL, if nothing else. I'd list some depth wideouts who might get extra run, but the team's already been giving significant snaps to guys like Isaiah Hodgins and Richie James – although it would be hilarious if Kenny Golladay suddenly showed up. I suppose New York could be motivated to try and cost Philly their No. 1 seed, but are they really going to risk helping Dallas? Who do they hate more, anyway? NFC East rivalries are vicious no matter who's involved.

I know Patrick Mahomes is probably going to win the MVP, but really, the Eagles' two end-of-season losses with Gardner Minshew under center should strength Jalen Hurts' case, not weaken it. Hurts will officially roll into this one as questionable, but given what's on the line – including a first-round bye that would give his sore shoulder another week to rest – I can't imagine he won't start. A.J. Brown hasn't really cared who's slinging him the ball, reeling off six straight games with either a TD or 100 yards, or both, and if Hurts is back he'll have Dallas Goedert to throw to for the first time since Week 10 (the last time the duo were both healthy.) This is the Eagles' last chance to prove to the rest of the league that they're still the team everyone else has to measure up to, and not the Niners, and given who the Giants might be trotting out, a rout is very, very possible.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: WR Sterling Shepard (IR, knee), WR Wan'Dale Robinson (IR, knee)
PHI injuries: QB Hurts (questionable, shoulder)

NYG DFS targets: none
PHI DFS targets: Miles Sanders $5,900 DK / $6,700 FD (NYG 32nd in rushing DVOA, 31st in YPC allowed), Goedert $4,900 DK / $6,200 FD (NYG 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

NYG DFS fades: Taylor $5,100 DK / $6,300 FD (PHI first in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed), Hodgins $4,500 DK / $6,100 FD (PHI second in DVOA vs. WR1), Darius Slayton $4,600 DK / $6,000 FD (PHI sixth in DVOA vs. WR2)
PHI DFS fades: DeVonta Smith $7,500 DK / $7,700 FD (NYG third in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: PHI second in net yards per play at 1.16; NYG 25th at -0.46

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 PHI, average score 28-20 PHI, average margin of victory 11 points. NYG have lost eight straight meetings at Lincoln Financial Field, with their last victory coming in Week 8 of 2013 (15-7, a game in which the only touchdown came on a Najee Goode fumble return late in the fourth quarter to ruin the Giants' shutout bid)

Weather notes: no weather-related concerns

The Scoop: Matt Breida leads the NYG backfield with 60 scrimmage yards, while Gary Brightwell vultures a TD. Taylor throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Daniel Bellinger. Sanders dashes for 120 yards and two scores. Hurts throws for 230 yards and runs for 40, hitting Brown and Goedert to touchdowns. Eagles 31-14

Arizona (+14) at San Francisco, o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

David Blough at quarterback, Keaontay Ingram and Corey Clement in the backfield, no DeAndre Hopkins or Zach Ertz... yeah, this could be ugly. The Cardinals have dropped six straight games and are just trying to secure a top-five pick, and with Kyler Murray likely not even available for Week 1 next season, 2023 isn't looking like it'll be any better. I wonder if the new head coach will want to use that pick on a QB, or figure he's stuck with Murray and try to trade down for help elsewhere, like (gestures at entire roster.)

The 49ers, on the other hand, are the hottest team in the league with nine straight wins, and only three of them have been within one score. They aren't just winning, they're crushing teams' souls, even if the defense looked a bit vulnerable against Jarrett Stidham last week. (To be fair, it's not like they had a lot of game film on him.) Brock Purdy has thrown exactly two TDs in five straight and topped an 8.0 YPA in four straight as his Cinderella season continues, and even if Jimmy Garoppolo does get healthy enough to play in the postseason, is Kyle Shanahan really going to want to switch back? Keep in mind Purdy's production has come with Deebo Samuel missing the last three games, and he'll be back to for this one to warm up for the playoffs. The Niners can still secure the No. 1 seed if the Eagles flop, but if they're stomping the Giants, San Francisco might rest guys in the second half here. Then again, the Vikings could catch them for the No. 2 seed, so if Minnesota wins as expected in the early window, Shanahan may elect to not risk taking his foot off the gas.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: QB Murray (IR, knee), QB Colt McCoy (out, concussion), RB James Conner (out, shin), WR Hopkins (out, knee), WR Rondale Moore (IR, groin), TE Ertz (IR, knee)
SF injuries: QB Garoppolo (out, foot), QB Trey Lance (IR, ankle), RB Elijah Mitchell (IR-R, knee)

ARI DFS targets: A.J. Green $3,200 DK / $5,100 FD (SF 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)
SF DFS targets: Christian McCaffrey $9,300 DK / $10,000 FD (ARI 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB), Jauan Jennings $3,700 DK / $5,500 FD (ARI 27th in DVOA vs. WR3), George Kittle $6,000 DK / $7,600 FD (ARI 29th in DVOA vs. TE)

ARI DFS fades: Clement $4,900 DK / $5,700 FD and Ingram $4,800 DK / $5,500 FD (SF first in passing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed, first in passing DVOA vs. RB)
SF DFS fades: Samuel $6,000 DK / $7,000 FD (ARI first in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: SF fourth in net yards per play at 1.01; ARI 30th at -0.75

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 ARI, average score 21-21, average margin of victory nine points. ARI had won three of the last four meetings prior to SF's 38-10 victory in Week 11

Weather notes: 45-65 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ingram leads the ARI backfield with 40 yards. Blough throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice but does find Andre Baccellia for a touchdown. McCaffrey racks up 150 scrimmage yards and two receiving TDs, while Jordan Mason scores on the ground. Purdy throws for 260 yards and a third touchdown to Kittle. 49ers 31-10

L.A. Rams (+6.5) at Seattle, o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

I have no idea what Sean McVay's going to do here. He doesn't have a whole lot of healthy starters to sit as it is, and while the Rams' season ended a while ago, the Seahawks need a win (and help from the Lions) to squeak into a wild-card spot. I imagine Los Angeles will use its usual guys, and try to help Bobby Wagner stick it to his former employers. Baker Mayfield has been predictably inconsistent, flopping hard last week against the Chargers, but there's only so much he can do when the coaching staff refuses to unleash preseason beast Lance McCutcheon (hey, it's my last chance for a callback on that one). If there's one player who should be fully invested and motivated to solidify his spot in the plans for 2023, it's Cam Akers, who's piled up 241 rushing yards and three TDs the last two games. Considering McVay couldn't even find a spot in the lineup for the guy earlier in the year, maybe he should think about moving on to a broadcasting job in the offseason.

The Seahawks certainly haven't made things easy for themselves, losing three straight before righting the ship against the Jets last week, but they still have a shot at the postseason. Geno Smith needs one more touchdown pass for 30 and has already topped 4,000 passing yards, and barring a truly awful effort Sunday he'll wrap up the regular season with a completion rate above 70 percent. He's still only 32, and he has a lot less mileage on his arm that most QBs that age. If you're in the market for a starting quarterback this offseason, do you really trade for someone like Derek Carr instead of going after Geno? I don't think so. He'll make $6 million this season once all his incentives are factored in (plus another $1 million if Seattle makes the playoffs), but he could be making 4-5 times that per year on his next contract. Go get that bag, Geno. Kenneth Walker also has back-to-back 100-yard games and looks like the real deal, and while Tyler Lockett only caught two passes last week, the fact that he was playing at all so soon after finger surgery feels like the kind of thing that suggests karma's on the Seahawks' side.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: QB Matthew Stafford (IR, neck), WR Cooper Kupp (IR, ankle), WR Allen Robinson (IR, foot)
SEA injuries: RB Rashaad Penny (IR, ankle), WR Lockett (questionable, shin), WR Marquise Goodwin (IR, shoulder)

LAR DFS targets: Akers $6,200 DK / $7,300 FD (SEA 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Tutu Atwell $3,400 DK / $5,300 FD (SEA 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2), Tyler Higbee $4,400 DK / $5,600 FD (SEA 28th in DVOA vs. TE)
SEA DFS targets: DK Metcalf $6,700 DK / $7,200 FD (LAR 30th in DVOA vs. WR1), Lockett $6,400 DK / $6,900 FD (LAR 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)

LAR DFS fades: Brandon Powell $3,000 DK / $4,900 FD (SEA first in DVOA vs. WR3)
SEA DFS fades: Laquon Treadwell $3,200 DK / $5,000 FD (LAR third in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: SEA 11th in net yards per play at 0.17; LAR 29th at -0.73

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 8-4 LAR, average score 26-20 LAR, average margin of victory 10 points. LAR has won the last two games in Seattle, including a 30-20 victory at Lumen Field in the 2020 wild-card round

Weather notes: 30-40 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Akers rings up 100 yards and two TDs. Mayfield throws for 220 yards and a score to Higbee. Walker responds with 120 yards and a touchdown. Smith fires up 310 yards and three TDs, hitting Metcalf (who tops 100 yards) twice and Lockett once. Seahawks 34-27

Dallas at Washington (+7.5), o/u 41 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Nobody coming into the final weekend has a wider swing of possible finishes than the Cowboys (unless you count the gap between making the playoffs and not making it as the biggest swing of all). They could take the NFC East with a win and an Eagles loss, and even get a first-round bye and the No. 1 seed if those two things happen and the Niners somehow fall on their faces against the Cardinals to cap off Chaos Season in the most chaotic way possible. Otherwise, they're No. 5 and heading to Tampa Bay in the wild-card round, even though they might finish with five more wins than the Bucs. Dallas has mostly been doing its part down the stretch, beating Philly a couple weeks ago while winning six of its last seven, and really it should have been seven straight. That success has come despite the fact that Dak Prescott has turned into a turnover machine, getting picked off in six consecutive contests and posting a wild 14:10 TD:INT over that stretch. The team's scored a mind-melting 35 points a game over that stretch, so it's not like the lost possessions have hurt them, though Dak has the defense's 16 takeaways in the last five to thank for that. Does that seem like a formula that's going to beat Tom Brady in a playoff game? Don't answer that, Cowboys fans.

The Commanders haven't won in four consecutive games and were officially eliminated from the playoffs. Shocking no one except maybe Ron Rivera, it turns out neither Carson Wentz nor Taylor Heinicke is the answer at quarterback, and as a result the Sam Howell Era begins this week. The fifth-round rookie hasn't attempted a pass yet in the NFL, but after what Brock Purdy and Jarrett Stidham have done in the last month, I'm making no predictions about how Howell will do. (Well, OK, I will below because I have to, but I won't feel good about it.) He won't even have rookie RB Brian Robinson to lean on, but Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson are a pretty good starting point for any QB.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
WAS injuries: RB Robinson (out, knee), RB Antonio Gibson (IR, foot), RB J.D. McKissic (IR, neck)

DAL DFS targets: Noah Brown $3,300 DK / $5,300 FD and T.Y. Hilton $3,400 DK / $5,400 FD (WAS 28th in DVOA vs. WR3), Cowboys DST $3,900 DK / $4,700 FD (third in sacks, first in takeaways)
WAS DFS targets: Dotson $4,500 DK / $5,900 FD (DAL 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

DAL DFS fades: Dalton Schultz $4,500 DK / $6,500 FD (WAS third in DVOA vs. TE)
WAS DFS fades: Curtis Samuel $4,000 DK / $5,700 FD (DAL fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: DAL seventh in net yards per play at 0.47; WAS 23rd at -0.43

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 DAL, average score 29-20 DAL, average margin of victory 18 points, Five of the last six meetings have been decided by at least 15 points. DAL has won five straight meetings with Prescott as its starting QB by an average score of 38-19

Weather notes: 1-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Tony Pollard zips for 90 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, while Ezekiel Elliott adds 70 yards and a score. Prescott throws for 230 yards and a TD to CeeDee Lamb. Jaret Patterson leads the WAS backfield with 60 yards. Howell throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Dotson but gets picked off twice. Cowboys 27-13

Detroit (+4.5) at Green Bay, o/u 49 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The standalone game isn't a sure winner-take-all tussle, but it's got stakes no matter what. If the Rams manage to beat the Seahawks earlier in the day, the Lions can seize the final wild-card spot in the NFC with a win. Otherwise, Detroit will be looking to play spoiler against Green Bay, who would win a tiebreaker against Seattle if they win. Either way, Dan Campbell should have his crew foaming at the mouth. Jared Goff and the offense continue to run wild, piling up 41 points against the Bears last week and not being held below 20 since Week 9... which was their first meeting with the Packers. Ulp. The Lions unleashed D'Andre Swift last week though, as the third-year RB topped 100 scrimmage yards for the first time since Week 1 and score two TDs, and if he remains fresh after another year marred by injuries, he could be Detroit's not-so-secret weapon. Meanwhile the defense, which what simply brutal earlier in the season, has alternated decent performances with bad ones for the last couple months – although last week was one of the decent ones so if the pattern holds, they're in trouble.

You can't give Aaron Rodgers all the credit for the Packers' four-game win streak that has them on the verge of their fourth straight playoff appearance, but then again, is Jordan Love pulling something like that off? (I'm genuinely asking, since he hasn't been able to play enough in his career to know whether or not he could.) Rodgers has thrown exactly one TD in each win with a mediocre 6.6 YPA and barely 200 yards passing a game, but he's set AJ Dillon up for a five-game TD streak and Aaron Jones for 273 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in the three games since the team's bye. Because it's Rodgers, the Packers' rookie wideout duo of Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs getsa lot of time in the spotlight, but while they've each had their moments this season, right now the passing game is not what's driving the team's success. The running game, and a defense that's found its groove with 12 takeaways in those four wins, is the key to Green Bay's fortunes right now.

The Skinny

DET injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
GB injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DET DFS targets: Swift $5,700 DK / $7,100 FD and Jamaal Williams $5,300 DK / $7,000 FD (GB 31st in rushing DVOA, 27th in YPC allowed)
GB DFS targets: Rodgers $6,000 DK / $7,100 FD (DET 30th in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed), Aaron Jones $6,900 DK / $7,400 FD and AJ Dillon $5,600 DK / $6,900 FD (DET 30th in YPC allowed, 30th in rushing TDs allowed)

DET DFS fades: DJ Chark $4,300 DK / $5,700 FD (GB first in DVOA vs. WR2)
GB DFS fades: Packers DST $2,900 DK / $4,200 FD (DET second in sacks allowed, first in giveaways)

Key stat: GB 17th in third-down conversions at 39.9 percent; DET 30th in third-down defense at 45.8 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 DET, average score 26-22 DET, average margin of victory 13 points. GB had won five straight meetings before DET's current two-game winning streak, but GB has won three straight at Lambeau Field by an average score of 33-20

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-20s

The Scoop: Swift churns out 100 combined yards and a TD, while Williams adds 50 yards and a touchdown. Goff throws for 240 yards and a score to Amon-Ra St. Brown. Jones responds with 90 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, while Dillon gains 70 yards and a score. Rodgers throws for 260 yards and two TDs, hitting Watson early and Allen Lazard for the game-winner late in the fourth quarter, because of course he does. Packers 31-30

Kansas City at Las Vegas (+9.5), o/u 52.5 – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

The NFL is still in something of a state of shock after Damar Hamlin's cardiac incident, but Week 18 at least will go on as planned. Kansas City locks up the theoretical No. 1 seed in the conference with a win after the league decided Thursday not to replay the Bills-Bengals Monday nighter, so there's plenty on the line here. I say theoretical because any AFC championship game between Kansas City, Buffalo and maybe Cincinnati (depending on how this weekend goes) will be played at a TBD neutral site, so there'd be no advantage to having the higher seed. Patrick Mahomes has his second career season with 5,000 passing yards and 40 TDs in his pocket already, and he needs 430 more yards to beat Peyton Manning's single-season record. It's far from impossible for Mahomes — heck, 430 wouldn't even be his season high — but it's not exactly likely, either. Jerick McKinnon has become his favorite option, catching seven touchdowns the last five games, but those opportunities have come at Travis Kelce's expense as the tight end has zero TDs over the same stretch. Considering Kelce had four against the Raiders in their first meeting in Week 5, whichever one the Las Vegas defense tries to neutralize, it'll probably be the wrong answer.

Jarrett Stidham's first career NFL start went about as well as it possibly could have, aside from Vegas not actually winning the game. He kind of came out of nowhere, but it's possible the 26-year-old is just a late bloomer — there were times in high school when he was ranked among the best QBs in his class, before his college tenure was cut short by injuries and the whole Baylor mess, and then he spent his first few years as a pro firmly nailed to the bench in New England. He quickly figured out the top priority for any Raiders quarterback, though, and that's to get the ball to Davante Adams. Stidham could be playing for the 2023 starting job, as Derek Carr will be shipped out as soon as possible after the Super Bowl, so even though Vegas has nothing on the line except draft position and a vague chance to play spoiler, the team's passing game should still feature all its usual personnel. The same can't be said for the running game, though. Josh Jacobs has been playing through multiple nagging injuries for a while and is 160 yards ahead of Nick Chubb for the league's rushing crown, with Derrick Henry another 19 yards back of Chubb. Given that he's a free agent in the offseason and might not come back, it could be in both parties' best interest for him to sit or at least see a limited workload, coast to the rushing title and avoid a more severe injury that would cost him money while the Raiders see what they have in rookie Zamir White.

The Skinny

KC injuries: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (IR, ankle), WR Mecole Hardman (questionable, pelvis)
LV injuries: RB Jacobs (questionable, hip)

KC DFS targets: Mahomes $8,400 DK / $9,500 FD (LV 32nd in passing DVOA, 29th in passing yards per game allowed), McKinnon $6,300 DK / $7,500 FD (LV 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB), Hardman $3,700 DK / $5,500 FD and Kadarius Toney $4,000 DK / $6,000 FD (LV 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)
LV DFS targets: Adams $8,800 DK / $9,100 FD (KC 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)

KC DFS fades: none
LV DFS fades: Hunter Renfrow $3,800 DK / $5,300 FD (KC fifth in DVOA vs. WR3), Raiders DST $2,200 DK / $3,000 FD (30th in sacks, 31st in takeaways, KC third in sacks allowed)

Key stat: KC third in red-zone conversions at 68.7 percent; LV 27th in red-zone defense at 63.3 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 KC, average score 35-20 KC, average margin of victory 16 points. KC has won four straight meetings in the Raiders' building, regardless of what city they were playing in

The Scoop: Isiah Pacheco gains 80 yards and a touchdown. Mahomes comes out firing and sets the record, throwing for 440 yards and four TDs — one each to JuJu Smith-Schuster (who tops 100 yards), Hardman, Kelce (who also tops 100 yards) and McKinnon. White leads the LV backfield with 60 yards, while Brandon Bolden adds 50 scrimmage yards. Stidham throws for 250 yards and two scores, finding Adams and Darren Waller. Kansas City 35-20

Tennessee (+6) at Jacksonville, o/u 40 – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST

I'm a little surprised the NFL didn't schedule this one Sunday night, since it's the purest "win or go home" game on the entire Week 18 slate, but I guess it figured (correctly) that Aaron Rodgers slinging it for a playoff spot was a bigger draw. The winner takes the AFC South and the No. 4 seed, and gets a home date with the Chargers, Ravens or possibly even the Bengals. The loser starts looking ahead to 2023, though the Jaguars do have a path to a wild-card spot if every domino falls their way Sunday. The Titans are limping into this one figuratively and literally, losing six straight games and missing their starting QB, multiple starting offensive linemen, their two best edge rushers, a bunch of defensive backs, etc, etc. This is already Mike Vrabel's worst season as a head coach and his first with a losing record, but it can still be salvaged with a playoff spot. I'm not sure Joshua Dobbs in his second career start is the guy to pull it off, though. Sure, it's cool that the former Vol is now the starter in Tennessee, but he got the job by being only marginally better than rookie Malik Willis, who was the worst QB in the league to start this ye ... (puts hand to ear) wait, I'm just getting word Nathan Peterman will start for Chicago this week, so Willis will only end up being the second-worst starting QB. My bad. The Titans still have Derrick Henry, and both Robert Woods and Treylon Burks showed flickers of life last week with Dobbs at the helm, so it's always possible they grind out one of their patented tight, low-scoring wins. Tennessee might not have enough healthy bodies on defense to make that script work anymore, though — the team's coughed up 27 or more points in three of the last five games, a mark the offense has reached only once all season.

On the flip side, the Jaguars have won four straight and five of six since their bye, and Doug Pederson appears to have fully exorcised the demons lingering from Urban Meyer's Reign of Error. Trevor Lawrence hasn't thrown a TD pass in consecutive games, but he was efficient against two stingy secondaries in the Jets and Texans (seriously, no defense has given up fewer passing TDs this season), and he fired up an 11:1 TD:INT in the four games prior to that, including three touchdowns (and 368 yards) in Tennessee. Travis Etienne has also come into his own — 379 scrimmage yards the last three games with a 5.9 YPC — and it will be very interesting to see where he lands in 2023 fantasy drafts, especially relative to someone like Breece Hall. The defense might be the biggest question heading into what is effectively a playoff game, and while they held their last two opponents to a grand total of six points, again, it was the Jets and Texans. The Titans managed 22 in their first meeting about a month ago, but that was with Ryan Tannehill under center, and the Jags have some talented young players on that side of the ball who may have turned a corner since. The other Josh Allen, to pick the most prominent example, has three sacks in the last four games.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: QB Tannehill (IR, ankle), RB Dontrell Hilliard (IR, neck), WR Burks (questionable, groin)
JAC injuries: QB Lawrence (questionable, toe), WR Calvin Ridley (out, suspension)

TEN DFS targets: Dobbs $5,100 DK / $6,400 FD (JAC 29th in passing DVOA, 28th in passing yards per game allowed), Austin Hooper $2,700 DK / $4,800 FD and Chigoziem Okonkwo $3,300 DK / $5,200 FD (JAC 31st in DVOA vs. TE)
JAC DFS targets: Lawrence $6,100 DK / $8,000 FD (TEN 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 31st in passing TDs allowed), Marvin Jones $3,600 DK / $5,500 FD (TEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

TEN DFS fades: none
JAC DFS fades: Etienne $6,700 DK / $7,400 FD (TEN second in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed, second in YPC allowed, fourth in rushing TDs allowed)

Key stat: JAC 14th in red-zone conversions at 55.4 percent; TEN 21st in red-zone defense at 57.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 TEN, average score 26-16 TEN, average margin of victory 15 points. The last four meetings, and seven of the last eight, have been decided by 13 points or more

Weather notes: no weather-related concerns

The Scoop: Henry rumbles for 110 yards and a score. Dobbs throws for less than 200 yards and gets sacked five times, one of which results in a fumble recovery TD for Foye Oluokun. Etienne is held to 60 scrimmage yards. Lawrence throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Zay Jones and Evan Engram. Jaguars 27-10

Last week's record: 12-3, 7-8 ATS, 8-5-2 o/u
2022 regular-season record: 146-107-2, 115-133-7 ATS, 134-118-3 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 174-97-1, 146-125-1 ATS, 125-143-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 1434-876-9, 1120-1125-74 ATS, 869-905-33 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)