NFL Game Previews: Week 18 Matchups

EARLY SUNDAY

Tampa Bay at Carolina (+5.5), o/u 37.5 – Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST

Last week's flop against the Saints was never going to spell doom for the Buccaneers, because they always had a layup against the inept Panthers in their back pocket for their season finale. They should win this game, and should take home their third straight NFC South title, with their reward being a first-round playoff matchup against whichever of the Eagles or Cowboys (likely the former) doesn't win the NFC East. (I didn't say it was a great reward.) Tampa had won four straight prior to that, and even in the loss Baker Mayfield threw for over 300 yards and a couple TDs. He also threw multiple INTs for the first time all year though, and he came out of the game nursing sore ribs, and the chaos agent in me is definitely curious to see what happens if Kyle Trask has to come into this one with the whole season on the line. The Bucs won the first meeting against the Panthers in Week 13, but by only a field goal at home. They may not make this one as easy as it looks on paper.

Aside from that one game against a Packers secondary that couldn't stop one of those rubber-band powered gliders from gaining 10 yards, the Panthers' offense has been dreadful since Frank Reich got booted as head coach. Last week's shutout loss to the Jaguars was the third time in the last four contests Carolina scored fewer than 10 points, and in five weeks with Chris Tabor as the interim HC, Bryce Young has a 55.3 percent completion rate, 5.7 YPA and 2:2 TD:INT. That doesn't seem like progress. Good thing they have the first overall pick in next year's draft to... oh, right. That abject futility has masked a solid run from Ejiro Evero's defense, as Green Bay is the only offense since Carolina's Week 7 bye to top 322 yards of offense against the unit. Of course, said unit could also see Frankie Luvu, Brian Burns and a bunch of other starters and key players walk out the door in free agency after the season. It might be hard to imagine from looking at their record that things could get uglier for the Panthers in 2024, but this franchise does have the odor of the Matt Millen-era Lions at the moment.

The Skinny

TB injuries: QB Mayfield (questionable, ribs), WR Trey Palmer (questionable, hip)
CAR injuries: WR Jonathan Mingo (IR, foot), K Eddy Pineiro (questionable, hamstring)

TB DFS targets: Rachaad White (CAR 32nd in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed)
CAR DFS targets: none

TB DFS fades: none
CAR DFS fades: Panthers DST (32nd in takeaways, 32nd in sacks)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 TB, average score 28-21 TB, average margin of victory 14 points. TB has won six of the last seven meetings, and had won three straight at Bank of America Stadium prior to a 21-3 CAR victory in Week 7 of last season, when PJ Walker beat Tom Brady
Key stat: CAR is t-22nd in red-zone conversions at 50.0 percent (18-for-36), and 30th in red-zone trips; TB is t-3rd in red-zone defense at 42.6 percent (23-for-54)

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind

The Scoop: White gains 70 yards and a score. Mayfield throws for 240 yards and two TDs, one each to Mike Evans and Cade Otton. Chuba Hubbard scrapes together 50 yards. Young throws for under 200 yards and a touchdown to Adam Thielen. Buccaneers 24-13

Cleveland (+6) at Cincinnati, o/u 38.5 – Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST

There's almost nothing but pride on the line in this one, as the Browns are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC and will face the AFC South winner in the first round, while the Bengals are eliminated. Cleveland's decided to rest the weary old bones of Joe Flacco as a result, with the 38-year-old getting a well-deserved week off after throwing 13 TDs and an average of 323.2 yards over the last five games. The recently signed Jeff Driskel will handle duties under center instead, and given how well things went with Flacco, who knows how he'll do? Driskel does have a little experience in the scheme OC Alex Van Pelt runs, at least – the quarterback was with Cincy when Van Pelt was QB coach there in 2018. There's also the question of who Driskel might be throwing the ball to, as pretty much all the Browns' top targets are on the injury report. Cleveland does have a shot at giving Kevin Stefanski his first 12-win season though, as well as the team's first time reaching that mark since... (scrolls down franchise history page) 1986??? Jinkies. It'll have to be what passes for motivation, beyond the desire to just stick the knife in a little deeper against Cincinnati.

The Bengals have marginally more incentive to get a win here, as it would give them a third straight season above .500. They also have a couple key offensive players banged up, but Tee Higgins isn't going to want to sit with free agency looming. I wouldn't necessarily say Jake Browning has been exposed the last couple weeks, but a 62.7 percent completion rate, 2:3 TD:INT and 7.1 YPA are a little closer to the low expectations most people had for him when he took over for Joe Burrow. Cincy managed only three points in Week 1 the first time these teams met, when a less-than-100 percent Burrow was the helm of the offense, and Cleveland might need to rest a bunch of defensive starters too of Browning wants to avoid a similar fate.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: RB Kareem Hunt (questionable, groin), WR Amari Cooper (questionable, heel), WR Elijah Moore (questionable, concussion), TE David Njoku (questionable, illness), K Dustin Hopkins (questionable, hamstring), S Grant Delpit (IR, groin)
CIN injuries: RB Joe Mixon (questionable, illness), WR Higgins (questionable, hamstring)

CLE DFS targets: none
CIN DFS targets: none

CLE DFS fades: none
CIN DFS fades: Browning (CLE second in passing DVOA, first in net passing yards per game allowed, second in YPA allowed), Ja'Marr Chase (CLE first in DVOA vs. WR1), Higgins (CLE second in DVOA vs. WR2, first in DVOA vs. deep throws), Tanner Hudson (CLE first in DVOA vs. TE)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 CLE, average score 28-20 CLE, average margin of victory 12 points. CLE has won six of the last seven meetings, and four of the last five meetings have been decided by 13 points or more
Key stat: CLE is 29th in third-down conversions at 32.2 percent; CIN is 26th in third-down defense at 42.1 percent

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 10-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Pierre Strong leads the CLE backfield with 80 scrimmage yards. Driskel throws for under 200 yards but finds David Bell and Harrison Bryant for TDs. Chase Brown leads the CIN backfield with 70 combined yards and a touchdown. Browning throws for 240 yards and scores to Ja'Marr and Tyler Boyd. Bengals 21-17

Minnesota (+3) at Detroit, o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST

Technically speaking, both teams have something to play for here. In reality, the fates of both are pretty much sealed. To sneak into a wild-card spot, the Vikings would not only need to win, they'd need the Cards to beat the Seahawks, the Bears to beat the Packers, and at least one of the Saints or Bucs to lose. It's not a completely impossible series of events, but the least likely might be the one Minnesota actually controls. Kevin O'Connell's gamble on starting rookie Jaren Hall at center last week went poorly, and Nick Mullens wasn't much better in relief, leaving the club staring at its third straight loss. In retrospect, the Vikes' season was over when Kirk Cousins went down, but full marks to them for refusing to admit it for a while and going down swinging. Mullens will get another start here, and his 67.0 percent completion rate and 9.1 YPA during the losing streak have been undone by his six INTs (against five TDs.) He's still got Justin Jefferson to throw to, and Jordan Addison will be back for this one as well, but if Mullens can't tell purple from blue and silver, the quality of his receiving options won't matter much.

The NFC North champion Lions are still alive for the No. 2 seed in the conference, but they'd need the Giants to beat the Eagles and the Commanders to beat the Cowboys to get it after they got screwed by the refs last week. You can debate the play-calling all you want, or the other blown calls in the game by an officiating crew that had a pretty terrible day overall, but it's really not in dispute that they declared the wrong player eligible on a Detroit two-point conversion that should have won the game. The upshot of that gaffe is that Dan Campbell is now even more pissed off than usual and has no reason to rest his starters here. Road Jared Goff showed up a couple weeks ago when these teams first met, but the Lions still won 30-24 thanks to three combined touchdowns from Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Now Home Goff, who lit up the Broncos for five TD passes the last time he was puttering around Ford Field, gets his shot. Sam LaPorta, who caught three of those touchdowns from Goff in Week 15, needs one more to become the third rookie tight end in league history to reach double-digits after Rob Gronkowski and Mike Ditka.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: TE T.J. Hockenson (IR, knee), S Harrison Smith (questionable, shoulder)
DET injuries: WR Jameson Williams (questionable, ankle), TE LaPorta (questionable, ankle)

MIN DFS targets: none
DET DFS targets: none

MIN DFS fades: Ty Chandler (DET third in rushing DVOA, fifth in rushing yards per game allowed, third in YPC allowed)
DET DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 MIN, average score 28-22 MIN, average margin of victory nine points. DET has won three of the last four meetings, and five of the last six meetings have been decided by a single score
Key stat: DET is t-7th in third-down conversions at 42.8 percent; MIN is 28th in third-down defense at 42.6 percent

The Scoop: Chandler puts together 70 scrimmage yards. Mullens throws for 220 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Jefferson and K.J. Osborn, but he gets picked off twice. Gibbs leads the DET backfield with 100 combined yards and a receiving score, while Montgomery adds a TD. Goff throws for 320 yards and two more touchdowns, getting LaPorta his 10th while also finding Amon-Ra St. Brown (who tops 100 yards). Lions 31-17

NY Jets (+2.5) at New England, o/u 30.5 – Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST

Heading into Week 18, the Jets are set to pick eighth in the 2024 draft, while the Patriots are oh-so-close to the second overall pick that would land them either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, currently sitting in the No. 3 slot. New York may have their QB for next season already in place, but at least New England doesn't have one that's about to get sued by Jimmy Kimmel. I dunno whether Aaron Rodgers is just bored from having not played all season or what, but the Jets don't seem interested in escaping the Faustian bargain they made to acquire the aging edgelord wannabe, so expect the front office to put up with his extracurricular nonsense rather than doing the smart thing and cutting him loose before he says or does something he can't walk back. Trevor Siemian will end the season as the starting QB, but it's Breece Hall who's been keeping the offense afloat, racking up 461 scrimmage yards and four total TDs over the last four games as the Jets have gone 2-2. The defense seems to have mostly packed it in though, allowing 31.7 points a game over the last three weeks.

Is this Bill Belichick's swan song in New England? If it is, he couldn't have picked a better opponent than the one he always beats. I still find it hard to believe Robert Kraft is going to fire him, but I guess weirder things have happened. The Pats have also won two of their last four, but Bailey Zappe's three-INT performance last week against the Bills probably squelched any thoughts he would be a serious candidate for the starting job next season. Over that four-game stretch he's completed 70.3 percent of his passes with a respectable 7.5 YPA, and he could stick around as the backup QB. The defense has also taken a step back, with the team allowing 25.7 points a game over the last three weeks. To be honest, this feels like a game where one team will be motivated to play well for its Hall of Fame coach to potentially send him off into the sunset while the other just wants the season to be over already, but I'm not going to change the projected score based on vibes.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: QB Rodgers (out, Achilles), QB Zach Wilson (out, concussion)
NE injuries: RB Rhamondre Stevenson (IR, ankle), WR DeVante Parker (questionable, ribs), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (IR, ankle), TE Hunter Henry (questionable, knee), LB Jahlani Tavai (questionable, teeth)

NYJ DFS targets: Xavier Gipson (NE 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)
NE DFS targets: Patriots DST (NYJ t-30th in giveaways, 31st in sacks allowed)

NYJ DFS fades: Hall (NE first in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed)
NE DFS fades: Jalen Reagor (NYJ first in DVOA vs. WR3)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 11-0 NE, average score 28-11 NE, average margin of victory 17 points. NE has won 15 straight meetings and 12 straight home meetings, with NYJ's last victory at Gillette Stadium coming in a 28-21 win during the Divisional Round of the 2010 playoffs. Mark Sanchez threw for three touchdowns, including one to LaDainian Tomlinson
Key stat: NYJ are 32nd in red-zone conversions at 34.3 percent (12-for-35), and tied for 31st in red-zone trips; NE is sixth in red-zone defense at 48.0 percent (24-for-50)

Weather notes: temperature in the low 30s, 20-25 mph wind, 70-90 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Hall slides for 60 yards and a score. Siemian throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice, one of which Kyle Dugger returns to the house. Ezekiel Elliott grinds out 50 yards. Zappe throws for under 200 yards and also gets picked off twice, but does hit Mike Gesicki for a touchdown. Patriots 17-10

Atlanta (+3) at New Orleans, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST

Last week's loss to the Bears (and the one to the Panthers a couple weeks before that) have left the Falcons clinging to a very thin reed. They could still win the NFC South with a win here and a Bucs loss to that same Panthers squad (giving me my dream chaos scenario of a three-way tie at 8-9), but that's their only path to the postseason. Atlanta's already locked out of a wild-card spot, and locked into their sixth straight losing season. But sure, let's bring Arthur Smith back in 2024. Makes perfect sense. The whole "cap situation was a mess" excuse shouldn't fly when he's now had three years to clean it up. Taylor Heinicke will get another start at quarterback, unless he doesn't, but he's been a marginal upgrade on Desmond Ridder at best and it probably doesn't matter much. Drake London hasn't scored a TD since Week 4, even if he does occasionally see solid target volume, but it's not like an athletic 6-4 wideout should be a red-zone target or anything. London has incredibly seen only three targets inside the 20 over the last eight games and none inside the five-yard line, but it's not like anyone needs to make a stronger case for firing Smith. Kyle Pitts isn't getting those targets either, though, even though he's at least gotten into the end zone a couple times lately. I'm actually afraid to look and see who is getting them, in case it's Jonnu Smith or Cordarrelle Patterson or somebody absurd like that.

The Saints also need a win here and a loss by the Bucs to claim the NFC South crown, but at least they have some slim wild-card hopes to fall back on if Tampa Bay beats Carolina. New Orleans has some momentum, having won three of four, and the defense has led the way by holding the opponent to 13 points or less in all three wins. Derek Carr's also tossed multiple TDs in all four games, posting a 73.0 percent completion rate and 10:2 TD:INT over that stretch, although his 6.8 YPA is less impressive. His skill players come into this one very banged up, and Alvin Kamara is looking very iffy for Sunday, which could leave the Saints relying on whatever Jamaal Williams has left in the tank to give them a ground game, unless they go back to the Taysom Hill well. Carr threw for over 300 yards but couldn't get the ball in the end zone when these teams met in Week 12, but his recent form offers some hope he can be more productive this time around.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: QB Heinicke (questionable, ankle)
NO injuries: RB Kamara (questionable, ankle), RB Kendre Miller (questionable, ankle), WR Chris Olave (questionable, ankle), WR A.T. Perry (questionable, illness), TE Juwan Johnson (questionable, chest)

ATL DFS targets: Van Jefferson (NO 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)
NO DFS targets: none

ATL DFS fades: none
NO DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 NO, average score 25-22 NO, average margin of victory eight points. ATL won the first meeting this season 24-15 in Week 12 but hasn't won consecutive games in this rivalry since 2017
Key stat: ATL is t-27th in red-zone conversions at 47.7 percent (21-for-44); NO is t-8th in red-zone defense at 51.1 percent (23-for-45)

The Scoop: Bijan Robinson jets for 90 combined yards and a touchdown. Heinicke starts and throws for under 200 yards but finds Jefferson for a TD. Williams churns out 50 yards, while Hill runs in one score and catches another. Carr throws for 290 yards and a second touchdown to Olave. Saints 27-20

Jacksonville at Tennessee (+4.5), o/u 40 – Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST

The Jaguars' four-game free fall ended last week with a decisive thumping of the Panthers, but they're not out of the woods yet. A win here over Tennessee – not the easiest assignment given the history of the rivalry – gives Jacksonville the AFC South title, but they could also sneak into the final wild-card spot with a loss and some help from Las Vegas later in the day, assuming Pittsburgh lost on Saturday. Last week's win by the Jags came with C.J. Beathard at the helm, but he had to do very little. Trevor Lawrence seems like he'll be a game-time call, but it's tough to imagine him sitting given what's on the line if he's able to lift his arm over his head. Regardless of who's at QB, the team might have to keep leaning on Travis Etienne and a defense that stifled Tennessee pretty well last time this met in Week 11.

The Titans also roll into this one with some quarterback uncertainty, on top of having nothing to play for but the satisfaction of ruining the season for a division rival. Ryan Tannehill will get another start as Will Levis has a sore foot, and the veteran will be backed up by Malik Willis, who hasn't taken a snap since Week 8 and hasn't thrown a pass since Week 6. Tannehill's been decidedly underwhelming the last couple games, throwing for just 320 total yards despite a 73.9 percent completion rate as the offense just generally sputters. This could be Derrick Henry's final contest for the Titans, so he could see a hefty workload. Or maybe he gets mothballed and the Tyjae Spears era begins a game early. Either way, the Jags run defense has been mostly stingy this year, and the Titans are no Ravens or 49ers.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: QB Lawrence (questionable, shoulder), WR Zay Jones (questionable, hamstring), WR Christian Kirk (IR-R, groin)
TEN injuries: QB Levis (questionable, foot)

JAC DFS targets: Calvin Ridley (TEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR1, 31st in DVOA vs. deep throws)
TEN DFS targets: none

JAC DFS fades: none
TEN DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 TEN, average score 24-19 TEN, average margin of victory 14 points. TEN had won nine of 10 through the 2021 season, but since then JAC has won three straight by an average score of 30-17 
Key stat: TEN is 28th in third-down conversions at 32.3 percent; JAC is fifth in third-down defense at 35.6 percent

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind

The Scoop: Etienne piles up 80 yards and a score. Lawrence starts and throws for 220 yards and two TDs, hitting Ridley and Evan Engram. Henry churns out 60 yards and a touchdown. Tannehill throws for under 200 yards and a score to DeAndre Hopkins. Jaguars 27-17

LATE SUNDAY

Seattle at Arizona (+3), o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

While they didn't completely blow their chances at a wild-card spot with last week's home loss, the Seahawks certainly made things a lot more difficult on themselves. Not only will they need to win on the road – not that they've historically had much trouble with that in the desert – they'll need the Packers not to beat the Bears as well. Geno Smith's looked pretty good in two games since returning from a groin injury, and while there has been buzz the team might look for a QB upgrade in the offseason, the 33-year-old hasn't been the problem for Seattle this season. The main issue has been a defense that's given up 30-plus points on six separate occasions, including last week against Mason Rudolph and the Steelers. The run defense especially has collapsed, with six straight opponents racking up more than 130 yards on the ground – and that doesn't even count the 298 yards the Ravens rang up in Week 9.

The Cardinals come into the week holding the fourth overall pick in next year's draft after a semi-shocking upset of the Eagles last week. (I say only semi-shocking because all four of Arizona's wins this season have come against credible opponents – Dallas, Atlanta and Pittsburgh being the others – and Philly has only beaten the Giants since the calendar flipped to December.) In theory they could climb back up into the No. 2 spot, but they'd basically need both the Patriots and Commanders to win their games. That draft slot puts a different light on Jonathan Gannon's recent "Kyler Murray is our quarterback" comments, but we'll see if the coach is as committed if they move up in the 2024 draft. Murray's been coming on a bit as he puts his knee surgery further behind him, posting a 5:1 TD:INT over the last two games, but he has yet to throw for more than 256 yards in 2023 and hasn't run in a score in five games. Instead it's been James Conner carrying the load on offense, piling up 439 scrimmage yards and six total TDs over the last four contests, during which the team has gone 2-2. The team has also coughed up 34.3 points a game in three weeks since its bye, and while there's a couple pick-sixes mixed in there (I did say Murray was only coming on a bit), it's still not a good look for the defense, which was supposed to be Gannon's specialty.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: LB Jordyn Brooks (questionable, ankle)
ARI injuries: WR Marquise Brown (IR, heel)

SEA DFS targets: Smith (ARI 31st in passing DVOA, 30th in passing TDs allowed), Kenneth Walker (ARI 31st in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed), DK Metcalf (ARI 30th in DVOA vs. WR1, 32nd in DVOA vs. deep throws), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ARI 31st in DVOA vs. WR3), Noah Fant (ARI 31st in DVOA vs. TE)
ARI DFS targets: James Conner (SEA 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in rushing TDs allowed), Greg Dortch (SEA 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

SEA DFS fades: none
ARI DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 SEA, average score 25-21 SEA, average margin of victory nine points. SEA has won four straight meetings, and are 8-1-1 over the last 10 meetings in Arizona, with the only loss coming in Week 7 of the 2020 season, when Murray and Russell Wilson each threw for over 350 yards and three TDs in a 37-34 Cards victory
Key stat: SEA is 25th in third-down conversions at 35.4 percent; ARI is 32nd in third-down defense at 47.2 percent

The Scoop: Walker bangs out 100 yards and a TD. Smith erupts for 360 yards and three scores, two to Metcalf (who tops 100 yards) and one to Smith-Njigba. Connor responds with 90 yards and a touchdown. Murray throws for 240 yards and a TD to Dortch while also running in a score. Seahawks 31-27

Chicago (+3) at Green Bay, o/u 44 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The current chatter around the league has the Bears keeping Justin Fields and trading next year's first overall pick, again, after the team has won four of its last five games and appears to be headed in the right direction. First off, lol. Of course Chicago is going to make it clear the top pick is available, just in case someone is willing to pony up even more than Carolina did last year. I mean, imagine a scenario where the Bears pick up another boatload of assets and still come away with a Jayden Daniels or Michael Penix. Second, during that hot streak, Fields has a 59.2 percent completion rate, 6.2 YPA and 4:3 TD:INT. Sure, he's added three rushing TDs, but he clearly isn't the guy to get the team to the next level. If they genuinely do pass on the chance to get an upgrade two drafts in a row, they deserve what will happen to them, which will probably be getting stuck in that middle limbo where they aren't drafting early any more, but also aren't doing much more than trying to sneak into a wild-card spot every year. The defense has become a force though, holding opponents to 17 points or less in all four of those recent wins, so maybe Matt Eberflus and company are angling to become the Great Lakes Avengers Ravens.

Stop me if you've heard this one before – it's win and they're in for the Packers after they stomped the Vikings last week. Jordan Love has thrown multiple TDs in three straight games and seven of the last eight, posting a 66.2 percent completion rate, 7.4 YPA and 18:3 TD:INT over that stretch. Note to Chicago's brain trust: this is what a viable starting QB looks like in 2023. He's done it without benefit of a fully healthy receiving corps as well, as Romeo Doubs has been his only main WR to be in the lineup for all eight of those contests. Of course, when Love's capable of getting 105 yards and a touchdown out of randos like Bo Melton, a seventh-round pick of Seattle's in 2022 who spent most of this season on Green Bay's practice squad, it may not matter much who's in the huddle with the young QB. He's had to sling it, as the Packers' secondary remains a mess. It's been able to handle luminaries like Jaren Hall and Tommy DeVito in recent weeks, but anybody even slightly more competent has lit it up.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: RB Khalil Herbert (questionable, back), WR Darnell Mooney (out, concussion), TE Cole Kmet (questionable, knee)
GB injuries: RB AJ Dillon (out, neck), WR Christian Watson (questionable, hamstring), WR Jayden Reed (questionable, chest), WR Dontayvion Wicks (questionable, chest), TE Luke Musgrave (IR-R, abdomen), EDGE Preston Smith (questionable, ankle)

CHI DFS targets: none
GB DFS targets: none

CHI DFS fades: none
GB DFS fades: Doubs (CHI second in DVOA vs. WR1), Musgrave and Tucker Kraft (CHI fourth in DVOA vs. TE)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 10-1 GB, average score 28-18 GB, average margin of victory 12 points, GB has won nine straight meetings, the last seven by more than one score (average score 34-19). GB has won seven straight meetings at Lambeau Field
Key stat: GB is fifth in third-down conversions at 46.0 percent; CHI is 29th in third-down defense at 42.9 percent

Weather notes: temperature in the low 30s

The Scoop: Roschon Johnson leads the CHI backfield with 110 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Fields throws for under 200 yards, tossing one score to DJ Moore and running in another. Aaron Jones manages 80 scrimmage yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Love throws for 260 yards and two more touchdowns, one each to Reed and Wicks. Packers 28-24

Kansas City (+3) at LA Chargers, o/u 36 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

It took longer than it should have, but Kansas City finally clinched the AFC West title last week and are locked into the No. 3 seed, giving them nothing much to play for in this one. Patrick Mahomes will sit out, and likely a whole host of other starters along with him, although Travis Kelce might play long enough to get the 16 receiving yards he needs for his eighth straight 1,00-yard campaign. Rashee Rice was also on the cusp of setting a new franchise rookie record for receiving yards, but instead he's already been ruled out due to a minor hamstring tweak. It's fair to question whether an offense that's been struggling all season to get things clicking should be taking a week off, but maybe a mental reset is just what they need. The status quo clearly isn't working – KC's scored 20 or more points only twice in the last five games, which is not the kind of momentum you want to take into the postseason. The defense has held four straight opponents to 20 or less though and hasn't allowed anyone to score more than 27 against them all year, so if Andy Reid's crew is going to make another deep run, it'll likely come on the shoulders of players like Chris Jones and Justin Reid.

The Chargers have lost four straight and are just playing out the string, hoping to land the best possible draft pick to give Justin Herbert some help in 2024. Easton Stick's failed to throw a TD in three of his four appearances since taking over for Herbert while committing four turnovers, but his 65.4 percent completion rate and 6.9 YPA aren't terrible for a backup. That's about the level the defense has been playing at, too. The Bolts have been able to stifle QBs like Jarrett Stidham and Bailey Zappe, but that horrendous performance against Aidan O'Connell still hangs like a cloud over the team, and over the head of first-year DC Derrick Ansley. There's little chance a new head coach is going to keep him around in 2024.

The Skinny

KC injuries: QB Mahomes (doubtful, ankle), RB Isaiah Pacheco (questionable, quadriceps), RB Jerick McKinnon (IR, groin), WR Rice (out, hamstring), WR Kadarius Toney (out, hip), EDGE George Karlaftis (questionable, rest), Lb Nick Bolton (questionable, wrist)
LAC injuries: WR Keenan Allen (out, heel), LB Kenneth Murray (doubtful, shoulder)

KC DFS targets: Blaine Gabbert (LAC 30th in passing DVOA, 30th in net passing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPA allowed)
LAC DFS targets: none

KC DFS fades: none
LAC DFS fades: Stick (KC fifth in passing DVOA, second in net passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed), Alex Erickson (KC second in DVOA vs. WR3), Gerald Everett (KC second in DVOA vs. TE)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 KC, average score 28-25 KC, average margin of victory seven points. KC has won four straight meetings, and nine straight road meetings across four different stadiums and three different cities (they played in Mexico City in 2019). The Chargers last home win came in San Diego, a 27-24 victory in Week 17 of the 2013 season when KC rested its starters, including QB Alex Smith, and Philip Rivers tossed one of his three TD passes to Antonio Gates
Key stat: KC is sixth in third-down conversions at 44.1 percent; LAC are 17th in third-down defense at 38.4 percent

The Scoop: Clyde Edwards-Helaire leads the KC backfield with 110 combined yards and a score. Gabbert throws for 240 yards and TDs to Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Noah Gray. Austin Ekeler picks up 70 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdown. Stick throws for 200 yards and a second score to Quentin Johnston. Kansas City 21-20

Denver (+2.5) at Las Vegas, o/u 38 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Jarrett Stidham didn't exactly provide a noticeable improvement over Russell Wilson in his first start for the Broncos, but he was a whole lot cheaper and the team won, so that's all that really matters. The bulletin-board fodder in the locker room will likely be that Denver has a shot at its first winning record since 2016, which was Gary Kubiak's last season as head coach – the franchise has run through five coaches in seven seasons since (including last year's interim HC Jerry Rosburg), so you better believe they're going to give Sean Payton as much leeway as he wants to turn things around. If that means swallowing Wilson's contract and enduring a couple years of cap hell, so be it. It's not like the current roster was really working. Javonte Williams hasn't recaptured his pre-injury form, and Jerry Jeudy has appeared on more milk cartons than he'd made trips to the end zone. The defense had a midseason surge thanks to some ball-hawking, but it's produced only four takeaways in the last five games.

The Raiders missed a chance to play spoiler last week in Indianapolis, and now have no chance at getting above .500. After both Jon Gruden and Josh McDaniels flamed out, you'd think owner Mark Davis would be more open to the idea of seeing what an unproven commodity like interim head coach Antonio Pierce (4-4 since taking over) can do with a bit of job security, but instead he's probably going to throw a bunch of money at a Harbaugh or something in the offseason. The locker room seems to believe in Pierce though, and making a final case he should be the guy gives them plenty to play for. Speaking of things to play for, Zamir White's been leaving little doubt who will head into 2024 as Vegas' top RB. With Josh Jacobs sidelined the last few games, White's busted out for 285 rushing yards and a 4.8 YPC. Aidan O'Connell's also had a couple solid outings, throwing for a career-high 299 yards last week against the Colts, but the fourth-round rookie is more likely to get some competition, if not get replaced outright, during the offseason. Davante Adams also needs two more receptions for his fourth straight season with 100-plus, in what could be his final game in silver and black before he get6s traded.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
LV injuries: RB Jacobs (out, quadriceps), TE Michael Mayer (out, toe)

DEN DFS targets: none
LV DFS targets: White (DEN 30th in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed), Jakobi Meyers (DEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), Austin Hooper (DEN 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

DEN DFS fades: none
LV DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 LV, average score 25-18 LV, average margin of victory seven points. LV has won seven straight meetings, and seven straight home meetings – DEN's last road victory in the rivalry came in Week 5 of the 2015 season back in Oakland, a 16-10 win in which the Broncos' only TD came on a Chris Harris INT return
Key stat: DEN has produced an offensive score on 35.8 percent of its drives, tied for 14th; LV has allowed an offensive score on 33.7 percent of the opposition's drives, 10th in the league

The Scoop: Williams gains 70 yards, but Jaleel McLaughlin vultures a red-zone TD. Stidham throws for 220 yards and two touchdowns, finding Courtland Sutton and Lucas Krull. White pops for 100 scrimmage yards and a score. O'Connell throws for 250 yards and two TDs, one each to Hooper and Adams. Raiders 24-21

Philadelphia at NY Giants (+5), o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Losers of three of their last four, the Eagles may have hit bottom with last week's embarrassing collapse against the Cardinals, as the defense gave up two TDs in the last six minutes of the fourth quarter. Philly fans generally don't need much of an excuse to boo, but the home squad deserved it last week. The Eagles now need the Commanders to upset the Cowboys to have any shot at the NFC East title, and that's assuming they don't blow this one against the Giants. The offense has at least been looking marginally better, but Jalen Hurts has still inexplicably thrown for under 200 yards in three of the last four contests, which frankly shouldn't be possible given the talent around him. I freely admit I'm not a Nick Siranni fan, and him big-braining his coaching staff this season and thinking he could break in first-year coordinators on both offense and defense rather than finding at least one experienced hand seems to be coming back to bite him. (I guess that experienced hand was supposed to be Matt Patricia, who's the "senior defensive assistant"?) Sirianni's always felt like the kind of guy who would still get fired after a 10-win season because his bosses are just sick of him, but it probably won't happen this winter. Probably. Getting the fifth seed isn't the worst landing spot, as it comes with a road playoff matchup against an NFC South winner who could have a sub-.500 record, but the Eagles do not look in any way, shape or form like a team about to go on a tear through the postseason.

Currently the proud owners of the fifth overall pick in the 2024 draft, the Giants have lost three straight, but they've kept things close in the last two against playoff-caliber opponents as Tyrod Taylor's return has provided the offense with a bit of a jolt. New York would probably love to play spoiler here, but they may not have the horses to pull it off. Saquon Barkley's averaged a pedestrian 4.0 YPC this season and still needs 84 rushing yards to reach 1,000, which seems feasible given how Philly's front seven has been playing lately. The Giants' own defense has given up an average of 26.3 points and just a hair under 370 yards a game in four weeks since their bye, and DC Wink Martindale seems like he's already out the door as the returns on his blitz-heavy scheme continue to diminish. Honestly, Brian Daboll's seat should be hotter than it is too, but he's still coasting on last year's moderate success (which also ended emphatically at the hands of the Eagles) and the excuse of Daniel Jones' injury. I'm not sure how Jones would have gotten them 4-5 more wins, though.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: RB D'Andre Swift (questionable, illness), WR DeVonta Smith (out, ankle)
NYG injuries: S Jason Pinnock (out, toe)

PHI DFS targets: Swift and Kenneth Gainwell (NYG 29th in rushing DVOA, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPC allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed)
NYG DFS targets: none

PHI DFS fades: none
NYG DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 10-2 PHI, average score 28-18 PHI, average margin of victory 13 points. PHI has won five straight meetings, including a 38-7 victory in last season's divisional round, by an average score of 35-16
Key stat: PHI is 10th in red-zone conversions at 60.3 percent (35-for-58); NYG are 25th in red-zone defense at 61.4 percent (35-for-57)

Weather notes: temperature in the low 30s

The Scoop: Swift piles up 110 scrimmage yards and a TD, while Gainwell also gets into the end zone. Hurts throws for 230 yards and two scores, hitting A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. Barkley picks up 70 yards. Taylor throws for under 200 yards and a touchdown to Darren Waller, and Bobby Okereke returns a fumble to the house before the game gets out of hand. Eagles 34-14

LA Rams (+3.5) at San Francisco, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Rams have a wild-card spot locked up, although they don't know yet whether they'll be heading to Dallas or Detroit (or even Philly is still on the table.) The first option isn't very appealing considering the Cowboys ran them out of AT&T Stadium back in Week 8, but Sean McVay has already made the call to take what the football gods give them and rest his starters rather than trying to get the No. 6 seed. That'll mean Carson Wentz under center, and no Kyren Williams or Cooper Kupp either. If you're looking for milestones, Puka Nacua already has the franchise rookie records for catches and receiving yards but is 55 yards shy of 1,500. Expect Wentz to try and get him there, if he does nothing else. The Rams had won three straight and six of seven to get them in the position to sit out key players, for what that's worth.

The Niners are also resting everyone they can after clinching the top seed in the NFC, although as with the Ravens I do wonder if giving your best players two full weeks off before the games really start to matter is the best approach. Because, y'know, I'm smarter than Kyle Shanahan and all. Sam Darnold will get the nod at QB, and we could see lots of Jordan Mason out of the backfield and Ronnie Bell on downfield routes. At least in San Francisco's case they do have a number of players nursing injuries who could use some time off.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: QB Matthew Stafford (doubtful, Coach's Decision), RB Williams (doubtful, CD), WR Kupp (doubtful, CD), TE Tyler Higbee (doubtful, CD), DE Aaron Donald (doubtful, CD), LB Ernest Jones (doubtful, CD)
SF injuries: RB Christian McCaffrey (out, calf), WR Jauan Jennings (questionable, concussion), S Ji'Ayir Brown (out, knee)

LAR DFS targets: none
SF DFS targets: none

LAR DFS fades: Davis Allen (SF third in DVOA vs. TE)
SF DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 9-3 SF, average score 25-22 SF, average margin of victory 12 points. SF has won nine straight regular-season meetings, but LAR did win the lone postseason meeting during that time, a 20-17 victory in the 2021 NFC Championship
Key stat: SF is first in red-zone conversions at 65.6 percent (42-for-64), and t-2nd in red-zone trips; LAR are t-8th in red-zone defense at 51.1 percent (23-for-45)

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind

The Scoop: Ronnie Rivers leads the LAR backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown. Wentz throws for 220 yards and a TD to Nacua. Elijah Mitchell leads the SF backfield with 90 yards and a score, while Mason adds 50 yards and a touchdown. Darnold throws for 250 yards and a TD to Deebo Samuel. 49ers 27-17

Dallas at Washington (+13), o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

After last week's narrow escape against the Lions, the Cowboys control their own fate. If they win their first road game since mid-November, they lock up the NFC East crown and the No. 2 seed in the conference. If not, they're tossed to the wild-card winds and will have to travel to the NFC South winner to start the playoffs. Did I mention the lack of road wins? Dallas has beaten three teams all year away from JerryWorld, are they were the Giants, Chargers and Panthers. Granted, they had a lot of tough road opponents, but Dak Prescott's splits don't suggest those losses were flukes. The offense comes into this one in a funk in general, failing to score more than 20 points in any of the last three games on the heels of five straight with 33 or more. Fortunately, they get the perfect opposition to try and get right. Even with the rest of the unit struggling, CeeDee Lamb's been basically unstoppable over the last couple months, finding the end zone in eight straight games and averaging better than 100 receiving yards a game during that heater. He leads the NFL in receptions with 122, a franchise record, and he's second in the NFL with 1,651 receiving yards, another franchise record. Tony Pollard's also 65 rushing yards short of his second straight 1,000-yard campaign, although he's fallen short of that mark in four straight games so it's not a slam dunk.

The Commanders' seven-game losing streak may pay off, as they're currently poised to pick second in the 2024 draft and finally land the franchise QB they've lacked since... Kirk Cousins? Robert Griffin III? Sonny Jurgensen? I guess it depends on how strict your definition of "franchise quarterback" is. Sam Howell is back under center for now, and while I'm sure the team will be going all out to try and ruin the Cowboys' hopes for a division title, and Howell himself would like to prove he can be the starter next season, let's be real here. The second-year signal-caller has a 3:10 TD:INT over his last six games. The defense has been the real issue though, and the thing that should cost Ron Rivera his job as soon as the game is over. Washington allowed 27 points last week to the 49ers, and that was their best showing since Week 9. The Commanders have been tagged for 30 or more points nine times this season, and the Cowboys are more than capable of making it 10 by halftime.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
WAS injuries: RB Chris Rodriguez (IR, ankle), S Kamren Curl (questionable, quadriceps)

DAL DFS targets: Prescott (WAS 32nd in passing DVOA, 31st in net passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), Lamb (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1), Brandin Cooks (WAS 30th in DVOA vs. deep throws)
WAS DFS targets: none

DAL DFS fades: none
WAS DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 DAL, average score 28-21 DAL, average margin of victory 20 points. DAL has won four of the last five meetings
Key stat: DAL is third in third-down conversions at 47.7 percent; WAS is 23rd in third-down defense at 40.7 percent

Weather notes: 9-15 mph wind

The Scoop: Pollard erupts for 120 combined yards and a TD. Prescott throws for 350 yards and four scores, two to Lamb (who tops 100 yards) and one each to Cooks and Jake Ferguson. Brian Robinson churns out 60 yards. Howell throws for 200 yards and touchdowns to Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas, but he also gets picked off twice. Cowboys 41-20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Buffalo at Miami (+3), o/u 50 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

One of these years, the NFL is going to get stuck without an obvious final-week standalone game. The Bills need a win to capture their fourth straight AFC East title, which would also lock them into the No. 2 seed in the conference. If the Steelers lose Saturday, the fallback is a wild-card spot, but if Pittsburgh beats Baltimore – who, remember, have nothing motivating them other than the undying hatred between those two clubs – then Buffalo suddenly needs Tennessee to topple Jacksonville, or a Houston-Indy tie, just to squeak into the playoffs. To their credit, the Bills come into the one with all the momentum, having won four straight since their bye and looking more like the team that was supposed to be in the running for a top seed in the AFC anyway. Josh Allen has more rushing TDs (six) than passing TDs (three) during that winning streak, but considering how pick-prone he's been this season, it's hard to argue with that approach. The pieces are all still on the roster for Buffalo to make some kind of run in the playoffs, but if it all falls apart, it wouldn't be a huge shock to see things get significantly retooled in the offseason – a Stefon Diggs trade and sweeping changes in the secondary being the most likely outcomes.

Injuries have slowed down the Dolphins, with last week's rout at the hands of the Ravens being (presumably) rock bottom. They were the team doing the routing not so long ago though, and if Tyreek Hill is close to 100 percent recovered from his ankle injury, he'll be plenty motivated to fend off CeeDee Lamb for the league receiving crown. Miami's got a playoff spot in their pocket regardless, but a win here not only gives the franchise its first division title since 2008 (Chad Pennington's only healthy season as a Dolphin), it has the potential to bounce Buffalo from the postseason entirely. As such, it's likely that banged-up players like Raheem Mostert will give what snaps they can, but it's the injuries on defense to players like Xavien Howard that could wind up being the difference between starting their playoff run at home or on the road in Kansas City.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
MIA injuries: RB Mostert (questionable, knee), WR Jaylen Waddle (questionable, ankle), EDGE Bradley Chubb (out, knee), LB Jerome Baker (IR-R, knee)

BUF DFS targets: Bills DST (second in takeaways, t-3rd in sacks)
MIA DFS targets: none

BUF DFS fades: none
MIA DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 10-2 BUF, average score 34-20 BUF, average margin of victory 15 points. BUF has won three straight meetings, including a 34-31 victory in last season's wild-card round, and 10 of the last 11. MIA's lone victory during that stretch was a 21-19 win in Week 3 of the 2022 campaign, a game the Bills lost despite 400 passing yards and zero INTs from Allen
Key stat: MIA is third in red-zone conversions at 64.9 percent (37-for-57); BUF is 20th in red-zone defense at 55.3 percent (26-for-47)

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind

The Scoop: James Cook scampers for 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Allen throws for 320 yards and two TDs, hitting Diggs (who tops 100 yards) and Dalton Kincaid, while also running in a score of his own. Mostert plays and gains 80 yards and a touchdown, while De'Von Achane adds 60 combined yards and a receiving TD. Tua Tagovailoa comes up big, throwing for 350 yards and two more scores, one each to Hill and Cedrick Wilson. Dolphins 31-28

SATURDAY

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (+3.5), o/u 36.5 – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

With the Ravens having locked up the top seed in the AFC and a first-round bye in the playoffs, they've decided to give Lamar Jackson two weeks off and will sit him for this one. Presumably other starters will be joining him, potentially including a banged-up Zay Flowers. With most of the secondary on the injured report as well, the defense that led the league in a number of categories against the pass could be a lot less stingy than usual. Still, I have a hard time believing the Ravens will simply phone it in when they have a chance to eliminate their most hated rival from the postseason, even though that's pretty much what the books are expecting with this spread. (AFC North note here for outsiders – while Cleveland hates Baltimore more than anyone else, what for the whole franchise-stealing and all, Baltimore hates Pittsburgh more than anyone else, and the feeling is mutual. Cincy also probably hates Pittsburgh the most, although Cleveland is pretty close these days now that they're no longer a doormat.)

A win for the Steelers doesn't guarantee them a wild-card spot – they need help from the Dolphins or, less likely, the Titans to get there, and there's always the total chaos scenario of a Colts-Texans tie – and a loss doesn't even necessarily eliminate them, as there's a sliver of a path that way too, but if nothing else you know they'll want to get that 10th win. Mike Tomlin has still incredibly never had a losing record as a head coach (17 seasons and counting), and he's quietly closing in on the all-time top 10 in regular-season coaching wins, sitting 14 back of Chuck Knox. Tomlin's currently tied for 12th with Bill Parcells at 172. Pittsburgh's largely still alive thanks to two big games from Mason Rudolph as the starting QB, and Tomlin will roll the dice one more time on him even though Kenny Pickett could be healthy enough to play. Yes, the stage is set for Rudolph to spit the bit and Pickett to come off the bench and lead a heroic second-half comeback. It almost feels inevitable. George Pickens is happy with the way things stand right now though, having erupted for an absurd 11-326-2 line on 15 targets over Rudolph's two starts.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: RB Najee Harris (questionable, knee), EDGE Cameron Heyward (questionable, groin), LB Elandon Roberts (questionable, pectoral), S Minkah Fitzpatrick (questionable, knee)
BAL injuries: WR Flowers (questionable, calf), TE Mark Andrews (IR, ankle), LB Patrick Queen (questionable, shoulder), S Kyle Hamilton (questionable, knee)

PIT DFS targets: none
BAL DFS targets: none

PIT DFS fades: Rudolph (BAL first in passing DVOA, first in YPA allowed, t-1st in passing TDs allowed), Diontae Johnson (BAL first in DVOA vs. WR2, second in DVOA vs. deep throws)
BAL DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 PIT, average score 19-18 BAL, average margin of victory six points. Seven straight meetings have been decided by a single score, with PIT going 6-1 in those games. Neither team has scored more than 20 points in this rivalry since a 28-24 victory for PIT in Week 8 of the 2020 season
Key stat: PIT is 29th in red-zone conversions at 47.5 percent (19-for-40); BAL is second in red-zone defense at 40.4 percent (19-for-47)

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-30s, 10-20 mph wind, 75-85 percent chance of rain/snow

The Scoop: Harris leads the PIT backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown. Rudolph gets benched at halftime after throwing two INTs, and Pickett tosses a TD to Pickens. Justice Hill leads the BAL backfield with 80 scrimmage yards and a score, and Gus Edwards also punches in a touchdown. Tyler Huntley throws for under 200 yards but doesn't make any mistakes. Ravens 17-14

Houston at Indianapolis (+1.5), o/u 47.5 – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST

It's win and they're in for the Texans, and considering what preseason expectations were for this squad, DeMeco Ryans should be getting a whole lot more Coach of the Year buzz. Heck, if C.J. Stroud hadn't gotten hurt, they could be coming into this one with the playoff spot already in their pocket and only seeding (and a possible division title) on the line. Stroud didn't post big numbers against the Titans last week in his return, but he was efficient and didn't commit any turnovers, and the defense had arguably its best performance of the season, with Will Anderson's return giving the unit a massive boost. Houston's still young and inconsistent, and the offense hasn't really recaptured the magic of those two midseason games against the Bucs and Bengals due to a bunch of injuries to the receiving corps, but Stroud's been shining in the spotlight as a rookie, and it's never been brighter than it will be here.

On the flip side, the Colts are also win-and-in Saturday, and could also take the AFC South crown if the Jaguars flop against the Titans. Indy's 3-0 at home since their bye, and all three wins were against credible opponents in Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh and the Antonio Pierce edition of Las Vegas. Jonathan Taylor reached 100 scrimmage yards last week for the first time since Week 7, and while he's had a tough, injury-plagued season, he remains the Colts' biggest weapon. Gardner Minshew's been fairly subdued of late, posting a 62.2 percent completion rate, 6.9 YPA and 5:2 TD:INT over the last four games, and if the game turns into a fireworks display between Minshew and Stroud, it could be bad news. The defense has held each opponent to 20 points or less during that home winning streak however, and the emergence of the aptly named E.J. Speed as the latest IDP star in the middle of the field – 34 tackles, two passes defended and a forced fumble over the last three games – has had something to do with that.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: WR Noah Brown (questionable, back), WR Robert Woods (questionable, hip), EDGE Anderson (questionable, ankle), EDGE Jonathan Greenard (questionable, ankle)
IND injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

HOU DFS targets: none
IND DFS targets: none

HOU DFS fades: none
IND DFS fades: Taylor (HOU second in rushing DVOA, second in YPC allowed)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 8-3-1 IND, average score 27-19 IND, average margin of victory 10 points. Anthony Richardson's two rushing TDs before his exit overcame Stroud's 384 yards and two passing TDs in a 31-20 win for IND in their Week 2 meeting
Key stat: HOU is 19th in third-down conversions at 37.9 percent; IND is t-8th in third-down defense at 37.0 percent

The Scoop: Devin Singletary racks up 90 combined yards and a TD. Stroud throws for 300 yards and two scores, one each to Nico Collins (who tops 100 yards) and Dalton Schultz. Taylor produces 70 yards and a touchdown. Minshew throws for 280 yards and two TDs, finding Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, and he's the one who leads the game-winning drive late. Colts 27-24

Last week's record: 13-3, 6-9-1 ATS, 7-9 o/u
2023 record: 153-103, 119-127-10 ATS, 140-113-3 o/u