NFL Game Previews: Week 18 Matchups

EARLY SUNDAY

Carolina (+8) at Atlanta, o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Nothing encapsulated the Panthers' season quite like, "Quack quack ... and Hekker has it blocked!" It's not exactly "a drive into deep left field by Castellanos" in terms of memeability of course, but few things are. Carolina whiffed badly on its chance to play spoiler against Tampa Bay last week, but Week 18 brings one more small chance to potentially make an impact on the playoff race. Bryce Young has done just enough to avoid being labeled a complete bust, but his future remains very much in doubt. Over nine starts since reclaiming the top job, he's posted a 60.4 percent completion rate, 6.5 YPA and 12:6 TD:INT, passing numbers that only look good in comparison to his rookie performance. With Chuba Hubbard out, he also has no running game to fall back on, and it was basically Adam Thielen or bust last week when it came to moving the football. Miles Sanders might be back this week, but he has a 3.4 YPC in his two seasons with the Panthers, so he doesn't exactly move the needle. There's really no reason to think this team has an upset in it, but that's what the Cardinals thought a couple weeks ago. Sometimes, the NFL's just gonna NFL.

Depending on how you look at it, either the Falcons blew it last week, or they just became the latest team to get Jayden Daniels'ed. Either way, they now need the Saints to shock the Bucs for this game to even mean anything. Michael Penix's first career TD pass was clutch, as he hit Kyle Pitts for a game-tying 13-yard strike inside the final two minutes, but at least statistically he hasn't been an improvement so far on a banged-up Kirk Cousins. Instead, it's been Bijan Robinson keeping the team alive, as he's piled up 503 rushing yards and six TDs over the last five games. Really, the Falcons probably don't even deserve to still be in the hunt – they haven't beaten a decent team since Week 8 – but a 9-8 champ in the NFC South would be pretty fitting.

Key Info

CAR injuries: RB Miles Sanders (IR, ankle), WR Xavier Legette (questionable, hip), DT A'Shawn Robinson (questionable, neck), LB Josey Jewell (out, concussion)
ATL injuries: WR Darnell Mooney (questionable, shoulder), K Younghoe Koo (IR, hip), LB Troy Andersen (IR, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CAR DFS targets: none
ATL DFS targets: Michael Penix, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts

CAR DFS fades: none
ATL DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Sanders manages 60 yards and a score. Young throws for under 200 yards and a touchdown to Thielen. Robinson busts out 110 yards. Penix throws for 250 yards and two TDs, hitting Pitts and Drake London, while Kaden Elliss returns a Young fumble to the house to put the game out of reach. Falcons 31-20

Washington at Dallas (+4.5), o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

It's either the No. 6 or No. 7 seed for the Commanders, but the former is far preferable – it means a road game against the Rams or Bucs, whereas the seven seed gets stuck facing the Eagles. Dan Quinn agrees, and unlike other teams in similar situations Washington will play its starters and try to take a five-game win streak into the postseason. Jayden Daniels' OT winner to Zach Ertz last week was just his latest clutch moment, and his 12 passing TDs in the fourth quarter or overtime is an NFL rookie record. His five TD passes in the last 30 seconds of the fourth, or in OT, is also an NFL record – not for rookies, for any quarterback since the merger. Oh, and he's also 136 rushing yards short of 1,000 for the season, which seems less impossible after he scampered for 127 in Week 17. Maybe the most impressive under-the-radar stat for Daniels is that despite the struggles of the Commanders' defense, he hasn't had to attempt 40-plus passes in any game this season. OC Kliff Kingsbury has never completely abandoned the running game, and while Daniels leads the team in rushing yards, Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler, Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez (two TDs in the last four games) have all made contributions, and all four have YPCs above 4.0. (Shout out to offensive line coach Bobby Johnson, who had that job under Brian Daboll with the Bills and Giants before joining the Commanders' staff this year, for that one.) Washington does have a loss to Dallas earlier in the season to avenge as well, and they have lost three straight trips to AT&T Stadium, so clearing away that bad NFC East mojo would be a nice way to head into the playoffs.

So much for that playing for Cowboys pride stuff I was babbling about last week. One week after beating a Tampa Bay squad that had a lot on the line, Dallas got steamrolled by a Philly team with Kenny Pickett and Tanner McKee under center, who combined for three passing TDs on only 19 attempts between huge gains by Saquon Barkley. The embarrassing performance denied the 'Boys a chance to finish above .500, but Mike McCarthy seems content to let things play out with Cooper Rush at QB rather than getting one final look at pending free agent Trey Lance. There have been worse trades in NFL history, but purely from an ROI perspective, giving up a fourth-round pick for two years of Lance and letting him attempt only seven regular-season passes (plus whatever he might get Sunday) is pretty egregious. Jerry Jones should probably fire the guy who made that boneheaded deal, especially if it's the same guy who keeps screwing up contract negotiations with the team's biggest stars. Speaking of which, Rico Dowdle's made himself some money this offseason with a 1,000-yard campaign and a 4.7 YPC behind an offensive line which is a shadow of its former glory. 519 of those yards have come in the last five games, and with CeeDee Lamb done for the year, any upset hopes will probably have to come on the ground. Micah Parsons also needs half a sack to reach double digits, for what that's worth.

Key Info

WAS injuries: RB Austin Ekeler (IR, concussion), WR Noah Brown (IR, kidney), K Austin Seibert (IR, groin)
DAL injuries: WR CeeDee Lamb (IR, shoulder), EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR, foot), S Donovan Wilson (questionable, knee), CB Trevon Diggs (IR, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
WAS DFS targets: Brian Robinson/Austin Ekeler
DAL DFS targets: none

WAS DFS fades: none
DAL DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Robinson racks up 100 yards and a touchdown, while Ekeler returns and picks up 80 yards and a score. Daniels throws for 270 yards and two TDs, one each to Terry McLaurin and Olamide Zaccheaus. Dowdle bangs out 80 yards and a touchdown. Rush throws for 200 yards. Commanders 31-16

Chicago (+10) at Green Bay, o/u 41.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Bears come into Week 18 with the longest losing streak in the NFL at 10 games, a fitting end to a futile campaign. For all his ups and downs though, Caleb Williams doesn't have terrible numbers – he's 107 yards short of 3,500 and one TD shy of 20, with just six INTs, and he's already cleared the Mitchell Trubisky bar. Keep in mind too that Chicago has never had a 4,000-yard passer in its history or had a QB throw 30 touchdowns, and Jay Cutler holds most of the franchise's big passing records, so what constitutes a decent season is very relative. Rebuilding the offensive line is still the top offseason priority for the new brain trust, and after getting sacked seven more times in last week's ugly 6-3 slog against the Seahawks, Williams has been brought down a league-high 67 times – C.J. Stroud is second at 52. The NFL record is 76 by David Carr in 2002, and the only other QB in history to get sacked 70-plus times is Randall Cunningham in 1986 (72). One of those two guys turned out OK, at least.

The Packers couldn't quite seal the deal last week against the Vikings, and now face the possibility of winning 12 games this season and still being stuck with the No. 7 seed in the NFC. Ouch. Josh Jacobs extended his TD streak to seven games against Minnesota, and he's done his part along with Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry to open the RB market back up for future free agents, sitting right there among the league leaders in rushing yards (fifth) and total TDs (tied for sixth, two back of James Cook). Jordan Love hasn't committed a turnover in six games, posting a 64.7 percent completion rate, 7.9 YPA and 9:0 TD:INT over that stretch, but some bumpy performances by the defense have left Green Bay at only 4-2 in that span. The Packers also gave up 391 yards in their first meeting with the Bears, a 20-19 squeaker in Week 11, but for the most part they've had absolutely nothing to worry about in this rivalry over the last decade, winning 11 straight meetings and 16 of the last 17.

Key Info

CHI injuries: S Jaquan Brisker (IR, concussion)
GB injuries: RB MarShawn Lloyd (IR, appendix), WR Christian Watson (questionable, knee), LB Quay Walker (out, ankle), CB Jaire Alexander (out, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CHI DFS targets: none
GB DFS targets: Romeo Doubs, Packers DST

CHI DFS fades: none
GB DFS fades: Jayden Reed

Weather notes: temperature in the high teens, 1-10 percent chance of snow 

The Scoop

D'Andre Swift ekes out 40 yards. Williams throws for under 200 yards but does find Marcedes Lewis for a TD. Jacobs pops for 130 combined yards and two scores. Love throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Doubs and Tucker Kraft. Packers 28-10

Jacksonville (+4.5) at Indianapolis, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Jaguars aren't looking for a new QB, so draft position isn't quite as important for them, but last week's win over the Titans still cost them a couple precious spots. They're essentially the worst of the four-win teams, which parks them in fifth – a good spot from which to land defensive help like, say, Michigan corner Will Johnson. Jacksonville seems like they're running their starters onto the field in Week 18, giving Mac Jones one last chance to show he's shaken off his New England malaise. He's been quietly effective since Trevor Lawrence was shut down, posting a 67.1 percent completion rate, 6.9 YPA and 7:4 TD:INT over the last five games despite the fact that Brian Thomas has been his only reliable target. Jones might be Plan B at QB for some team this offseason as an affordable free agent, if they're priced out of Sam Darnold and can't get who they want in the draft.

Considering that they were still technically alive in the playoff race heading into last week, the performance of the Indy defense is probably the biggest choke job of the season. The Colts gave up 45 points, the most any opponent has scored against them in 2024,but the fact that the opponent in question was the Giants – 31st in PPG, and 30th in yards per play – is hard to wrap my brain around. Indy held Detroit to 24 points in Week 12, and Minnesota to 21 in Week 9. Even Buffalo only got to 30 against them. On the other hand, the second-worst performance of the year by the Colts' defense came in Week 5 against the Jags (37 points, 497 yards), so maybe they just really embrace playing down to the level of their competition. Anthony Richardson is done for the year due to a sore back, and while his athleticism is still elite, the gap between his current numbers (47.7 percent completion rate, 8:12 TD:INT) is massive, and not the kind of thing that seems like it'll be overcome in one offseason of adjustments. To put it in perspective, Josh Allen had a 58.8 percent completion rate and 20:9 TD:INT in 2019, before his year 3 breakout. Richardson's got to take a major step forward just to get to that level. Joe Flacco will make one more start, which is good news for Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce, and Jonathan Taylor should be able to continue his big finish to the campaign, but OC Jim Bob Cooter's unit is beginning the game in a big hole thanks to a defense that's allowed 30-plus points in three straight games. This rivalry tends to go the way of the home team, but the one road win over the last 14 meetings was by the Jaguars last season, a 31-21 victory in Week 1. (For the record, I looked that up after I'd locked in the final score for the Scoop below.)

Key Info

JAC injuries: QB Trevor Lawrence (IR, shoulder), TE Evan Engram (IR, shoulder)
IND injuries: QB Anthony Richardson (out, back)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
JAC DFS targets: none
IND DFS targets: Joe Flacco, Alec Pierce, Kylen Granson

JAC DFS fades: none
IND DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Travis Etienne leads the JAC backfield with 50 yards. Jones throws for 210 yards and two scores, hitting Thomas and Brenton Strange. Taylor jets for 120 yards and two TDs. Flacco throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Pierce and Pittman, but he also throws a pick-six to Foyesade Oluokun. Colts 31-21

Buffalo at New England (+2.5), o/u 38.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Bills have absolutely nothing to play for here, so Josh Allen will get the initial snaps to keep his consecutive start streak alive but otherwise the bench is getting emptied. It's fair to say the ceiling of the offense is a little lower with Mitchell Trubisky under center. I do wonder if that opens the door for a Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow to slip in there and snatch away the MVP award with a big Week 18. Allen's passing numbers aren't actually all that impressive – he'll likely fall out of the top 10 in passing yards, and his 63.6 percent completion rate is actually below league average – but his rushing stats, the Bills' record, and general groupthink still give him a significant tailwind. James Cook is 19 yards away from 1,000 and leads the NFL with 17 scrimmage TDs, so there might be incentive to give him some work too before shutting him down, but for the most part the focus is going to be on staying healthy for next week. Even if the Bills are fielding their junior varsity squad, they could still come out on top against a Pats team they've beaten in six of their last seven meetings.

After six straight losses, the Patriots suddenly find themselves with the first overall pick in the 2025 in hand, and a massive windfall of draft capital coming their way from whoever wants to move up to take Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward. (I guess in theory they could keep the pick and trade Drake Maye, but that seems silly.) Coach Jerod Mayo said all the right things about going down swinging, but he also left the door open to sit Maye and other starters at some point, especially after he popped up on the injury report this week due to an issue with his throwing hand. That could allow the Pats to take a look at 2024 sixth-round pick Joe Milton as the QB, rather than retread Jacoby Brissett. The offense is somehow less of a concern than the defense though, which coughed up 40 points and 428 yards to the Chargers last week. Especially if Mayo is brought back as the coach, look for that side of the ball to be the one that gets the biggest talent infusion in the offseason.

Key Info

BUF injuries: LB Terrel Bernard (out, quadricep)
NE injuries: QB Drake Maye (questionable, hand), TE Hunter Henry (questionable, foot), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, ankle), S Jabrill Peppers (out, hamstring), CB Christian Gonzalez (out, concussion)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
BUF DFS targets: Mitchell Trubisky, Bills DST
NE DFS targets: none

BUF DFS fades: none
NE DFS fades: none

Weather notes: temperature in the low 30s, 10-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of snow 

The Scoop

Cook gets to 1,000 yards, but Ray Davis leads the BUF backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown. Trubisky throws for under 200 yards but does hit Keon Coleman and Mack Hollins for TDs. Rhamondre Stevenson grinds out 60 yards and a score. Milton gets the bulk of the snaps and throws for under 200 yards, getting picked off twice. Bills 27-10

N.Y. Giants (+3) at Philadelphia, o/u 37.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Of course the Giants screwed up their chances of drafting a new franchise QB. I don't know what I expected. Last week's ridiculous win over the Colts drops them to the fourth overall pick in the 2025 draft, pending Week 18 results, and it's always possible they drop further if Drew Lock's out-of-nowhere career game turns out not to be a complete fluke. The former Bronco and Seahawk lit up Indy for 309 yards and four passing TDs while adding a fifth score on the ground, and for the first time since September, Malik Nabers produced elite numbers. Imagine what he could do with consistent quarterback play. I still think Brian Daboll should be kicked to the curb, but the Giants appear to be leaning toward giving him one more season to turn things around, which should be good news for the rest of the NFC East.

The Eagles have nothing to play for, with the No. 2 seed in the NFC sewn up, so ultimate team player Saquon Barkley will sit rather potentially break Eric Dickerson's all-time rushing record, and do it against his former team to boot. I don't care how selfless you are. Sometimes, you need to think about the folks in the bleachers who paid good money to see history get made and deserve... wait, Philly fans still have a lot of bad karma to work off. Never mind. Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, most of the offensive line and a good chunk of the defense also seem set to get the week off, which maybe makes this the toughest game on the slate to predict. Are the Eagles' backups better than the Giants' regulars? Will anybody on the New York sideline be actively trying to lose? Will Big Blue find a way to win their first game in Philly since 2013 (a 15-7 victory that featured zero offensive touchdowns?)

Key Info

NYG injuries: DT Dexter Lawrence (IR, elbow), LB Bobby Okereke (IR, back), LB Micah McFadden (out, neck)
PHI injuries: QB Jalen Hurts (out, concussion), QB Kenny Pickett (questionable, ribs), RB Will Shipley (questionable, concussion), TE Dallas Goedert (IR, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NYG DFS targets: none
PHI DFS targets: Tanner McKee, Jahan Dotson, Ainias Smith

NYG DFS fades: Drew Lock, Tyrone Tracy, Darius Slayton, Daniel Bellinger
PHI DFS fades: none

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-30s, 10-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop

Tracy gains 70 scrimmage yards and a TD. Lock throws for under 200 yards and two touchdowns to Nabers. Kenneth Gainwell leads the PHI backfield with 60 yards and a score. McKee throws for 220 yards and a TD to ASmith but commits three turnovers. Giants 21-20

New Orleans (+13.5) at Tampa Bay, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Saints are limping to the finish line, losing three straight and four of their last five to creep into the top 10 in next year's draft. With nothing to play for but the chance to play spoiler against Tampa Bay, Derek Carr will stay on the sidelines and watch Spencer Rattler make a mess of things one more time. The 2024 fifth-round pick has a 51.7 percent completion rate, 5.8 YPA and 2:3 TD:INT while starting the last three games, and he isn't even making much of a case to be the sure No. 2 QB next season, although New Orleans figures to be cash-strapped once again and will want as many cheap rookie contracts on the roster as the team can get. Former LSU start Clyde Edwards-Helaire came home last week and figures to get the start in the backfield, but while Chris Olave might be cleared to return, the Saints have zero reason to do so. This offense hasn't scored 20 points since its Week 12 bye, and unless the Bucs begin resting starters in the second half because everything's going their way – which is a definite possibility – it's hard to imagine the saints scraping together enough points to be competitive in this one.

It's win and they're in for the Buccaneers, who hold a one-game lead over the Falcons in the NFC South but would lose on a tiebreaker. Tampa Bay might have the hottest offense in the league right now – over six games since the team's Week 11 bye, Baker Mayfield has led them to an average of 32.7 points and 463.8 yards, and the scoring numbers might be even better if it weren't for a minus-4 turnover differential during that span. Mayfield's tossed multiple TDs in four straight, posting a 74.8 percent completion rate, 9.5 YPA and 14:4 TD:INT, while rookie RB Bucky Irving has topped 100 scrimmage yards four times in those last six games, and Rachaad White hit that mark in one of the games Irving didn't. The defense has looked better since the bye thanks largely to a cushy schedule, but it's still prone to things like giving up 26 points to a Cooper Rush-led Cowboys outfit. The level of competition is going rise steeply in the wild-card round – as things stand, the Bucs would host the Vikings – so locking up a fourth straight division title might be as good as it's gonna get for Tampa.

Key Info

NO injuries: QB Derek Carr (out, hand), RB Alvin Kamara (doubtful, groin), RB Kendre Miller (out, concussion), WR Chris Olave (IR, concussion), TE Juwan Johnson (questionable, knee), LB Pete Werner (questionable, concussion)
TB injuries: WR Sterling Shepard (questionable, hamstring), TE Cade Otton (doubtful, knee), S Antoine Winfield (out, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NO DFS targets: none
TB DFS targets: Bucky Irving/Rachaad White

NO DFS fades: none
TB DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Edwards-Helaire collects 70 combined yards and a score. Rattler throws for under 200 yards. Irving strikes for 110 yards and a touchdown, while White adds 60 yards and a TD. Mayfield throws for 320 yards and three scores, one each to Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan and Payne Durham. Buccaneers 38-7

Houston (+1.5) at Tennessee, o/u 37.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

While the Texans have nothing on the line in Week 18 when it comes to the standings – they're the AFC South champs and the No. 4 seed regardless of what happens – DeMeco Ryans is sending his starters out there anyway to begin the game, in an attempt to generate the least bit of momentum after Houston got trucked by a combined score of 58-21 in its last two games. (They also lost the first meeting with the Titans this season, another bad taste the Texans would like to get out of their mouths before the playoffs.) C.J. Stroud hasn't managed a YPA of at least 8.0 in a game since Week 5, and a combination of wideout injuries and him likely playing at less than 100 percent has conspired to produce a sophomore slump. Joe Mixon has also lost his mojo since a Week 14 bye, stumbling to a 3.0 YPC with 166 scrimmage yards and zero TDs in the last three games. Even the defense has been a no-show the last couple weeks, delivering only two sacks and zero takeaways, although that was against Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Last time DC Matt Burke's unit faced Tennessee, it racked up eight sacks and three takeaways, so there's at least some hope for a big finish to the regular season on that side of the ball.

Losers of five straight, the Titans are comfortably holding onto the No. 2 overall pick in the 2025 Draft, which very recent history has shown to be the sweet spot. Whoever winds up picking first can take next year's Bryce Young/Caleb Williams, and Tennessee will get "stuck" with the C.J. Stroud/Jayden Daniels of the 2025 class. (Unless, of course, New England hangs onto the top pick and takes a non-QB. Or they win against a Bills team resting everyone important, and the Titans slip into the No. 1 spot. Or Tennessee stays at No. 2 but the talent pool is more like 2021, when Trevor Lawrence at 1.1 was followed by Zach Wilson and Trey Lance...) As if to make it absolutely clear to everyone how much this team needs a franchise quarterback, Brian Callahan plans to give both Will Levis and Mason Rudolph snaps in this one, which should work out great for everyone. The backfield could be down to Julius Chestnut and Joshua Kelley, while the defense will be missing about half its usual starters, but never rule out the ability of a team like the Titans to screw themselves with a meaningless win.

Key Info

HOU injuries: EDGE Denico Autry (out, knee), LB Christian Harris (questionable, ankle), S Jalen Pitre (IR, pectoral)
TEN injuries: RB Tony Pollard (questionable, ankle), RB Tyjae Spears (out, concussion), WR Tyler Boyd (out, foot), TE Chig Okonkwo (questionable, abdomen), K Nick Folk (out, abdomen), LB Kenneth Murray (IR, wrist), S Amani Hooker (out, shoulder), CB L'Jarius Sneed (IR, quadricep)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
HOU DFS targets: Dare Ogunbowale, Texans DST
TEN DFS targets: none

HOU DFS fades: John Metchie
TEN DFS fades: Mason Rudolph/Will Levis

Weather notes: temperature in the high 30s, 9-15 mph wind, 50-60 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Joe Mixon gains 80 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Stroud throws for 210 yards and a score to Nico Collins. Chestnut leads the TEN backfield with 50 yards. Neither TEN QB reaches 200 passing yards, but each throws a TD while combining for four turnovers, Levis to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Rudolph to Calvin Ridley. Texans 20-14

LATE SUNDAY

San Francisco (+4.5) at Arizona, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The 49ers could be headed for a basement finish in the NFC West, their second in the last five years, and once again injuries are to blame. Being eliminated from the postseason hasn't slowed down the rate of guys breaking down either -- Brock Purdy and Deebo Samuel have been ruled out, George Kittle could be next, and various other offensive linemen and defensive players are banged up too. San Francisco's lost three straight games and six of the last seven, and a couple fluky wins elsewhere might even get them a top-10 pick in 2025. Joshua Dobbs will get the start at QB, and he could be leaning heavily on rookies Isaac Guerendo, Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing to move the ball.

The Cardinals head into Week 18 in almost the worst position in the league, which is right in the middle. Of the 15 teams eliminated from the playoffs, they're currently slated to pick 14th in 2025. (The only team even more mediocre? The Seahawks, set to pick 18th.) Jonathan Gannon is going to play his healthy starters though, because of reasons. That won't include James Conner or Trey Benson, both of whom have been shut down, but Kyler Murray will be under center and Marvin Harrison will get a chance to close out his season on a high note. It's a little unfair to call a 57-822-7 line for a first-year player disappointing, but Harrison's been the fourth-best rookie wideout this season behind Brian Thomas, Malik Nabers and Ladd McConkey, and the fifth-best pass catcher overall if you include Brock Bowers. You can't blame volume either – he's seen more targets than McConkey, and is 20 catches and over 200 yards behind him. Assuming he's back, making sure Harrison is positioned for a Year 2 breakout should be offseason priority No. 1 for OC Drew Petzing.

Key Info

SF injuries: QB Brock Purdy (out, elbow), WR Deebo Samuel (out, ribs), TE George Kittle (questionable, ankle)
ARI injuries: RB James Conner (IR, knee), RB Trey Benson (IR, ankle), WR Michael Wilson (questionable, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
SF DFS targets: Ricky Pearsall
ARI DFS targets: none

SF DFS fades: none
ARI DFS fades: Marvin Harrison

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Guerendo picks up 80 yards and a TD. Dobbs throws for under 200 yards. Michael Carter pops for 90 combined yards and a score. Murray throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Trey McBride while also running in a TD of his own. Cardinals 24-16

Kansas City (+10.5) at Denver, o/u 40.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The two-time defending champs are playing the dangerous game of resting guys in Week 18 when they already have a first-round bye in the playoffs, but they did the same thing in 2022 and it worked out pretty well. (Punting this week's game also has the sneaky side benefit of keeping Joe Burrow out of the postseason, and I don't believe for one second that didn't come up in the room when this decision was made.) Kansas City's going to sit Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, likely both top RBs, and about a half-dozen of the team's most important defenders, so if the Broncos blow this one, they really don't deserve to keep playing this year. Carson Wentz will get the start, and a good performance might be enough to put him on the radar as a backup option to the backup options for teams looking for a new QB next year if they miss out on Sam Darnold and can't get a top draft pick. So, basically, the Jets or the Raiders. Not that it really matters, but Kansas City has never finished a regular season with only one loss – the franchise's best showing was 14-2 in 2020, and before that it was 12-2 back in the AFL days.

By losing two straight games, including last week's OT thriller against the Bengals, the Broncos have kept things interesting in the AFC for the final weekend and dangled hope in front of the Cincy and Miami fanbases, but they're still in the driver's seat and can book their wild-card ticket with a win. Bo Nix has tossed six INTs in the last four games, but that's balanced out by a 65.5 percent completion rate and nine TDs, so he's hardly falling apart. He's also gone the entire year without losing a fumble, which is genuinely stunning for a rookie QB, and he's found a second downfield threat in Marvin Mims to help take attention away from Courtland Sutton. The two losses aren't on him or the offense, though – the defense gave up at least 30 points in each game and 879 yards of offense, and if we're being brutally honest, Denver's only wins this season against playoff(ish)-caliber foes came against Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Against teams that headed into Week 18 with a spot locked up, they went 0-5.

Key Info

KC injuries: RB Isiah Pacheco (out, ribs)
DEN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
KC DFS targets: Samaje Perine
DEN DFS targets: none

KC DFS fades: Carson Steele, Noah Gray/Peyton Hendershot
DEN DFS fades: none

Weather notes: temperature in the low 30s, 1-10 percent chance of snow 

The Scoop

Perine leads the KC backfield with 60 yards and a receiving score. Wentz throws for 200 yards and a second TD to DeAndre Hopkins. Jaleel McLaughlin leads the DEN backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown. Nix throws for 240 yards and two scores, finding Sutton and Devaughn Vele. Broncos 24-17

Seattle at L.A. Rams (+6.5), o/u 38.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Even with nothing on the line as a team, the Seahawks are playing their starters. There are some players with things to shoot for, however. Geno Smith needs 186 passing yards to set a new career high, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba can set a new single-season franchise record with five more catches, which would break Tyler Lockett's mark of 100 from 2020. DK Metcalf's had a bumpy season, but he's also 61 yards away from his fourth career 1,000-yard campaign. Basically, it wouldn't be a surprise if OC Ryan Grubb told Smith to just go out there and sling it until everybody gets the numbers they need, and then why stop there? If any game has 'surprise blowout' potential, it might be this one. Seattle's also had their issues getting the better of Sean McVay's squads in recent years, losing three straight meetings and eight of the last 11, and a moral victory's better than no victory at all.

The Rams roll into this one having won five straight, but McVay's elected to flush that momentum down the toilet in an effort to keep his top guys healthy. I can't say I disagree with the decision. Matthew Stafford is 36 years old, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have both been hit by injuries this year, and Kyren Williams just needs a rest, sitting second in the league with 350 touches (Saquon Barkley's first with 378). Getting the nod at QB instead will be Jimmy Garoppolo, because in a week with Mitchell Trubisky and Carson Wentz getting starts, of course you can't leave Jimmy G out. The real winner here could be Blake Corum though, who has yet to see double-digit touches in a game yet. If the 2024 third-round pick gets the usual workload McVay gives to his lead backs, he could be in for a big day against a Seahawks defense that ranks 24th in rushing yards allowed to RBs this season, even if Corum is working behind a patchwork O-line.

Key Info

SEA injuries: RB Kenneth Walker (IR, ankle)
LAR injuries: LB Troy Reeder (IR, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
SEA DFS targets: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
LAR DFS targets: none

SEA DFS fades: none
LAR DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Zach Charbonnet churns out 70 yards and a touchdown. Smith throws for 230 yards and two TDs, both to JSN. Corum seizes his opportunity and puts together 90 yards and a score. Garoppolo throws for 200 yards and a touchdown to Jordan Whittington. Seahawks 24-20

L.A. Chargers at Las Vegas (+4.5), o/u 41.0
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Just to be annoying, the NFL has set the Week 18 schedule up so that Saturday's games will affect the Chargers seeding, which means there's no way to tell just how much work Justin Herbert and the Bolts' other starters will get in advance. Jim Harbaugh has said his usual guys will start, but that doesn't mean they'll finish the game if there's nothing on the line but their health. I've got the Bengals winning Saturday night though, so I'll assume the Chargers will be going for that No. 5 seed here. Herbert does have some momentum he won't want to lose, too – he's chucked multiple TDs in three straight games, posting a 68.6 percent completion rate, 7.5 YPA and 7:2 TD:INT. J.K. Dobbins looked good in his return last week, while Ladd McConkey crossed the 1,000-yard milestone and become the most prolific rookie WR in franchise history. If they can climb up to the No. 5 seed, getting past Houston in the wild-card round doesn't seem like that big an obstacle. Then again, any playoff win is a challenge for the Bolts – they have only since the team moved to Los Angeles in 2017, and they had only one in their last eight years in San Diego.

Two straight wins have sent the LOL Vegas... sorry, the Las Vegas Raiders tumbling down the 2025 draft board, and they're currently set to pick eighth, which isn't going to get them a shiny new franchise QB. Aidan O'Connell and Ameer Abdullah have looked like they're playing for their jobs, which they probably are, and Brock Bowers has had a big kick to the finish line on the greatest season in NFL history by a rookie tight end. If you squint, there are some pieces here for a new coach and GM to work with, but the cupboard is pretty bare once you get past Bowers and Maxx Crosby. Which means someone like Sam Darnold isn't going to want to sign with Vegas, and trading up for a QB in 2025 would leave him surrounded by very little talent. It's hard to see this roster as anything other than a multi-year rebuild.

Key Info

LAC injuries: RB Gus Edwards (out, ankle), WR Joshua Palmer (out, foot), LB Denzel Perryman (out, groin), S Alohi Gilman (questionable, hamstring)
LV injuries: RB Ameer Abdullah (out, foot) 

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LAC DFS targets: none
LV DFS targets: none

LAC DFS fades: none
LV DFS fades: Alexander Mattison

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Dobbins picks up 90 yards and a TD. Herbert throws for 280 yards and three touchdowns, two to McConkey (who tops 100 yards) and one to Will Dissly. Mattison grinds out 40 yards. O'Connell throws for under 200 yards and a score to Tre Tucker. Chargers 31-13 

Miami at N.Y. Jets (+1), o/u 38.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Dolphins play in the same window as the Broncos, who need to lose for Miami to get into the playoffs, so there could be some scoreboard-watching in the second half. Their narrow path to a wild-card spot is even narrowed than the odds would suggest though, as Tua Tagovailoa probably isn't suiting up. Miami is 2-3 in the games Tua has missed this year, with the two wins coming against the Pats and Browns – teams that are definitely the Jets' weight class – so it's not impossible. Tyler Huntley isn't exactly a guy who inspires confidence under center, even if he was incredibly sharp last week against Cleveland. The Dolphins will probably need more than 38 scrimmage yards from De'Von Achane, though.

The Jets are going down with the Aaron Rodgers ship, giving him one more start so he can try and get his 500th career passing TD. A couple decades from now, Rodgers will be one of those "wait, he played for who?" trivia questions, but in the immediate future his fall off a cliff leaves New York with no clear QB succession plan in place, and a draft pick that won't be good enough to address the problem in 2025. Will they get another veteran stopgap? Commit to a full rebuild, and hope to land Arch Manning in 2026? Will Garrett Wilson still be around to find out the answers, or even Breece Hall for that matter? There's plenty of talent on both sides of the ball still, but nobody to point them in the right direction, either on the sideline or especially in the front office. But hey, maybe bringing back Rex Ryan is the solut.... I couldn't even finish the sentence without laughing.

Key Info

MIA injuries: QB Tua Tagovailoa (doubtful, hip), WR Tyreek Hill (questionable, wrist), WR Jaylen Waddle (questionable, knee), LB Anthony Walker (out, knee)
NYJ injuries: TE Tyler Conklin (questionable, calf), LB C.J. Mosley (IR, neck), CB Sauce Gardner (IR, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
MIA DFS targets: Tyreek Hill
NYJ DFS targets: none

MIA DFS fades: none
NYJ DFS fades: none

Weather notes: temperature in the low 30s, 9-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of snow 

The Scoop

Achane gets held to 60 yards. Huntley throws for under 200 yards but does find Hill for a score. Hall picks up 50 yards. Rodgers throws for 210 yards and two touchdowns, with No. 500 going to Davante Adams and the second going to Allen Lazard. Jets 20-16

SUNDAY NIGHT

Minnesota (+2.5) at Detroit, o/u 56.0 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The regular season ends with maybe the best possible game. The NFC North title, and the No. 1 seed in the conference will be on the line, with the loser getting the No. 5 seed as a consolation prize. The Vikings roll in as the hottest team in the league, winning nine straight, and their only home loss of the year came against the Lions in Week 7. Sam Darnold just seems to earn more money every week, and over the last seven games he's delivered a 67.5 percent completion rate, 8.3 YPA and 18:2 TD:INT. There will be no one else in next year's free-agent class that can touch the numbers he's put up this season, and a lot of teams willing to reward him for it. Justin Jefferson's been spectacular as always – he's hauled in 100-plus catches in three of his first five seasons, and the NFL record is six such campaigns – but Jordan Addison has been a beast down the stretch as well, posting a 41-577-7 line on 60 targets over those seven contests.

While the Vikes might deserve that No. 1 seed based on their play the last couple months, the Lions definitely need it more. The injuries keep piling up, and an extra week of rest would give guys like Aidan Hutchinson and David Montgomery more time to attempt a return. This game is at Ford Field though, and that means regardless of the state of the rest of the roster, Minnesota has to contend with Home Jared Goff. Over his last six games in Detroit, Goff has an absurd 19:1 TD:INT. Both their losses this season have come at home though – 20-16 against the Bucs in Week 2, and that wild 48-42 l,oss to the Bills in Week 15 – so he's not unbeatable, just really, really good. Sam LaPorta's gotten back to something close to his rookie form as well, posting a 25-278-4 line on 38 targets over the last five games, and Jahmyr Gibbs has done better than fine as the workhorse since Montgomery got hurt. The Lions led the NFL with a plus-200 point differential for a reason. Momentum is also on their side in the rivalry, as Detroit's won four straight meetings and five of the last six.

Key Info

MIN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
DET injuries: RB David Montgomery (out, knee), EDGE Aidan Hutchinson (IR, lower leg), LB Alex Anzalone (questionable, forearm)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
MIN DFS targets: Aaron Jones
DET DFS targets: none

MIN DFS fades: T.J. Hockenson
DET DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Jones erupts for 110 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Darnold throws for 290 yards and two more scores, both to Jefferson (who tops 100 yards). Gibbs responds with 100 yards and a TD. Goff throws for 360 yards and four touchdowns, two to Amon-Ra St. Brown (who also tops 100 yards) and one each to LaPorta and Jameson Williams. Lions 41-34

SATURDAY

Cleveland (+17.5) at Baltimore, o/u 41.5
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

While the playoff races are mostly decided, the race for the top of the 2025 draft still has plenty of drama. Wins by the Giants, Raiders and Jaguars last week shook things up significantly, and the Browns suddenly find themselves looking at the third overall pick in a two-QB draft class just as they're trying to work out a Deshaun Watson exit strategy. Their immediate QB plans aren't too clear, either. Dorian Thompson-Robinson hasn't looked good the last couple games, and he came out of Week 17 with a calf injury. Jameis Winston is also dealing with a sore shoulder and isn't part of the team's future plans, so we will get a Bailey Zappe sighting. If only the Browns were playing Mac Jones and the Jags in their finale ... ah well. Jerome Ford, David Njoku, Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward and other key players are also banged up, so while Cleveland isn't in "rest guys for the playoffs" mode, they may be in "how many guys do we need to drag off the practice squad to field a full roster?" mode.

A win secures the AFC North title and the No. 3 seed for the Ravens, and at least one home playoff game; a loss risks dropping them to the No. 5 seed, and a trip to Houston (though last week's trip to NRG Stadium went pretty well). In other words, there's no reason to think they'll be going easy on the Browns. Lamar Jackson has kept himself in the MVP discussion with multiple TD passes in five consecutive games, posting a 14:1 TD:INT, 70.2 percent completion rate and 8.9 YPA over that stretch. Derrick Henry will need a monster game to get to 2,000 yards, and this might be the wrong opponent to get one against — he's actually never rushed for 100 yards against Cleveland in six career meetings. He does have 309 yards in the last two weeks, though, so 217 isn't completely unthinkable. Baltimore's defense seems to have also found its groove just in time for the postseason, holding three consecutive opponents to 17 points or less, including a combined 19 for playoff-caliber foes in the Steelers and Texans. With the offense having topped 400 yards and 30 points in all three of those games as well, the Ravens might be the team that's peaking at exactly the right time.

Key Info

CLE injuries: QB Jameis Winston (questionable, shoulder), RB Jerome Ford (out, ankle), RB Pierre Strong (out, concussion), WR Cedric Tillman (IR, concussion), TE David Njoku (out, knee), LB Jordan Hicks (out, concussion), CB Denzel Ward (out, shoulder)
BAL injuries: RB Justice Hill (out, concussion)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CLE DFS targets: none
BAL DFS targets: Zay Flowers, Ravens DST

CLE DFS fades: D'Onta Foreman, Elijah Moore, Browns DST
BAL DFS fades: none

Weather notes: temperature in the low 30s, 10-20 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop

Foreman leads the CLE backfield with 30 yards. Zappe starts and throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Jerry Jeudy, getting picked off twice and sacked five times. Henry thunders for 160 yards and two TDs. Jackson throws for 230 yards and three scores, hitting Flowers twice and Keaton Mitchell once. Ravens 35-10

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (+1.5), o/u 48.0 – Saturday, 8 p.m. EST

Do you believe in miracles? Joe Burrow has somehow dragged the Bengals to within one win of a wild card, though they'll also need losses by the Broncos and Dolphins to pull it off. Cincy's won four straight to stay alive, even going to overtime against Denver last week, and oh how that Week 1 loss to the Patriots hurts now. Burrow's chucked at least three TDs in eight consecutive games, an NFL record, and he's got a shot at a 5,000-yard season if he goes off again this week (he's 359 yards short, but he's topped that four times already in 2024). Oh, he's also been doing that while playing through multiple minor injuries and playing behind an O-line that's let him get sacked 44 times. The Bengals defense has finally come around the last month or so, holding four consecurice opponents to less than 400 yards while racking up 12 takeaways and 11 sacks. Of course, the last team to put a hurting on DC Lou Anarumo's unit was the Steelers in Week 13, and Pittsburgh's mostly had Cincy's number lately, winning four of the last five meetings.

This game may or may not mean anything for the Steelers — by the time they take the field, they could already be locked into a wild card, though the No. 5 seed and a game against the Texans looks a lot better than the No. 6 seed and a trip to Baltimore right now. Mike Tomlin's also suggested he'd like the team to have some kind of positive momentum heading into the playoffs, something they definitely do not have after dropping three straight. All three losses were to division winners (assuming the Ravens win Saturday), but none were particularly close with an average score of about 30-13. The Steelers seemed pretty happy with Russell Wilson a month or so ago, but I wonder if that's still true. His bad habits have surfaced again, and over the last four games he's stumbled to a 62.7 percent completion rate, 6.0 YPA and 5:2 TD:INT. He also lost the excuse of not having George Pickens to throw to last week, and the third-year wideout returned from a hamstring strain to just a 3-50-0 line on seven targets. Other reinforcements could be on their way too, as rookie WR Roman Wilson and veteran LB Cole Holcomb both had their practice windows opened, but they may not be cleared until the wild-card round.

Key Info

CIN injuries: RB Chase Brown (questionable, ankle), WR Tee Higgins (questionable, ankle), K Evan McPherson (IR, groin), LB Logan Wilson (IR, knee)
PIT injuries: WR Roman Wilson (IR, hamstring), LB Cole Holcomb (PUP, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CIN DFS targets: none
PIT DFS targets: Jaylen Warren

CIN DFS fades: none
PIT DFS fades: Van Jefferson

Weather notes: temperature in the low 20s, 10-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop

Khalil Herbert leads the CIN backfield with 60 yards and a TD. Burrow throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Ja'Marr Chase and Mike Gesicki. Warren leads the PIT backfield with 70 scrimmage yards and a score, while Najee Harris gains 50 yards. Russ throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Pat Freiermuth. Bengals 27-20

Last week's record: 10-6, 7-9 ATS, 8-8 o/u
2024 record: 171-85, 133-120-3 ATS, 137-118-1 o/u