NFL Expert Picks: Black Friday Football Raiders at Chiefs

NFL Expert Picks: Black Friday Football Raiders at Chiefs

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 13

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs (10-1) in an AFC West divisional clash in the NFL's 2nd annual Black Friday game. Both teams remain headed in opposite directions with the Raiders playing out the season and the Chiefs going for their third Super Bowl win in a row.

Raiders vs. Chiefs Betting Odds

Raiders +13.5 (BetRivers Sportsbook -108) / Chiefs -13 (bet365-110)

Raiders ML (+550 Caesars) / Chiefs ML (-675 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Total 42.5

The Chiefs opened as -7.0 point home favorites this spring, and the number popped to -11.5 by November 19th. When Gardner Minshew was ruled out, the Chiefs moved to -13.0. The total opened 45.5 and has steadily dropped to 42.5 with Aidan O'Connell now the starting quarterback for the Raiders. 

The majority of the bets (55%) have come in on the Raiders, while the handle (57%) has come in on the Chiefs which reflects that the "sharp" money has landed on Kansas City. 

The total has money on the Over at 70% of total bets, and 63% of the handle. There is a 7% percent difference on the Over for bets versus handle. The moneyline shows who has taken a position on the game, as the Chiefs have received 94% of the bets and 89% of the handle. 

Key Injuries

Raiders - QB Gardner Minshew (O), 

Chiefs - K Harrison Butker (O), K Spencer Shrader (Q),  WR Rashee Rice (O)

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Raiders vs. Chiefs Betting Picks 

There are two things to consider when handicapping this game. The first one is the Chiefs poor recent record against the spread as home favorites as they have gone just 9-11 ATS in their last 20 games and 3-6 in the last 9. 

The second is the Raiders upset win against the Chiefs last Christmas. The Chiefs have had this game circled. After they barely escaped against the Panthers last week, Patrick Mahomes was quoted that "we need to blow someone out". The motivation from the Chiefs side is something you have to strongly consider in this game. 

The Chiefs are dead last in DVOA against opposing tight ends and Raiders rookie Brock Bowers has already emerged as one of the best in the league. With O'Connell starting at quarterback, the Raiders will likely rely heavily on Bowers in this game.

Raiders vs. Chiefs Best Bet: Chiefs -7.0 1H (BetMGM -110)

Secondary Bet: Brock Bowers OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards (BetMGM -120)

Raiders vs. Chiefs Prediction

I have a hard time seeing how the Raiders are going to score in this game, much less move the ball on offense. They have had to rely on defense and special teams to score in prior matchups. The Chiefs defense is going to be motivated to pitch a shut out. 

Chiefs 27, Raiders 13

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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