This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Bijan Robinson is arguably the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley. He'll almost certainly be the first player off the board at his position in the NFL Draft, but just how early will the running back out of Texas be picked?
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NFL Draft Betting Odds - When Will Bijan Robinson Be Picked?
Leading mobile sports betting sites such as Caesars Sportsbook offer numerous bets regarding Robinson's potential landing spot. You can bet on which specific team will pick him, or the over/under on when he will come off the board. The breakeven point is pick 12.5, with the over and under both set at -115 odds. Once you move to pick 15.5, the NFL Draft betting odds for the under move to -275 while the over becomes +220, implying that Robinson is likely to be drafted within the first 15 picks.
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Which Teams Could Draft Bijan Robinson?
There are a few sensible landing spots for Robinson in the first half of Thursday's first round, and that's without even considering the possibility of another team trading up to draft him. Robinson could be picked by the run-heavy Falcons at No. 8 overall, the win-now Eagles at No. 10 overall, or the trend-bucking Patriots at No. 14 overall; or he could slip to the second half of the first round, at which point there will be no shortage of suitors among playoff hopefuls with backfield needs.
Atlanta ran the ball on 55.3 percent of plays last season, which ranked as the second-most run-heavy approach after Chicago. The Falcons can't rely on 32-year-old Cordarelle Patterson to continue playing a significant role much longer, and adding Robinson would give Atlanta a young workhorse to work ahead of Tyler Allgeier behind one of the league's best offensive lines. Speaking of elite O-lines, the Eagles have one, and Robinson's well-rounded skill set would make him an upgrade over Rashaad Penny in Philadelphia. New England loves to zig when the rest of the NFL zags, and a 1-2 punch of Robinson and Rhamondre Stevenson would allow the Patriots to always have a fresh running back to pound the ball and catch screens.
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Prediction - When Bijan Robinson Will Be Picked
The spot that looks like the most natural fit for Robinson is Philadelphia at No. 10. The Eagles are stacked at most spots on offense, and the extension they gave Jalen Hurts puts them in win-now mode by pushing his larger cap hits into future years. Philadelphia has another pick later in the first round, so the Eagles can afford to target a less premium position with the 10th overall pick. Robinson's skill set has been compared to that of Christian McCaffrey, and he would give the Eagles much more flexibility than free agent addition Rashaad Penny, whose career high in catches is nine.
If Robinson doesn't go to Philadelphia, there's a good chance he slips out of the top 15 altogether. Thus, if you're betting the under on Robinson's draft slot, you may as well chase the greater upside of the under on 12.5. The NFL has been trending away from taking running backs early, with no RBs getting drafted in the top 20 since Barkley went second overall in 2018, so there's certainly an argument for taking the over on pick 15.5 as well given the substantial potential payout at +220 odds on Caesars Sportsbook, one of the best PayPal betting sites available to bettors today.
