NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 10 Sunday Baller

NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 10 Sunday Baller

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

The Week 10 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1 p.m. EST and features 10 games. The Dolphins, Eagles, Rams and Kansas City will be on bye in Week 10, while the Thursday Night Football (Panthers-Bears), Germany game (Colts-Patriots), Sunday Night Football (Jets-Raiders) and Monday Night Football (Broncos-Bills) participants all play outside the main slate. Yahoo will be running plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 10, but the biggest is the Sunday Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $150,000 to the top 1,774 finishers, including $15,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 8,800 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay. 

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $150k Sunday Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested Week 10 options include a pair of buy-low candidates at running back, a couple of receivers that could offer better bang for the back than pricier teammates, and a surging tight end who's poised to stay hot.

QUARTERBACK

Joshua Dobbs, MIN vs. NO ($24): It's remarkable what Dobbs was able to do in his Vikings debut last week, relieving the injured Jaren Hall (concussion) and leading the team to a 31-28 win over the Falcons despite barely knowing the playbook or his teammates. As if all that wasn't impressive enough, Dobbs also produced 20.92 fantasy points, marking the fourth time in the last eight games that he has exceeded 20, dating back to his time with the Cardinals. At first glance, there isn't much to like in this matchup for Dobbs' home debut, but his outlook gets much rosier when you consider that New Orleans has allowed 243 rushing yards to QBs -- third-most in the NFL -- and Dobbs has rushed for 40-plus yards in six of his last eight games in addition to scoring on the ground in each of his last three. His receiving weapons in Minnesota are also better than what Dobbs had to work with in Arizona, especially given the possibility that star WR Justin Jefferson (hamstring) could be back this week.

Honorable Mentions:

Justin Herbert, LAC vs. DET ($34); Geno Smith, SEA vs. WAS ($30); Will Levis, TEN at TB ($25)

Against the Grainers:

C.J. Stroud, HOU at CIN ($30); Kyler Murray, ARI vs. ATL ($29); Deshaun Watson, CLE at BAL ($22)

RUNNING BACK

Tony Pollard, DAL vs. NYG ($20): Pollard profiles as one of the top Week 10 values at any position against a Giants team that has allowed the third-most rushing yards (985) and rushing touchdowns (10) to running backs. Neither of the teams that have allowed more yards (Raiders and Broncos) nor the teams that have given up more TDs (Panthers and Colts) play in the Week 10 Sunday Baller slate. Dallas is favored by more than two touchdowns and should give its top running back plenty of touches against this vulnerable defense. Pollard's best game of the season came against the Giants in Week 1, when he turned 14 carries and three targets into 82 yards and two TDs.

Aaron Jones, GB at PIT ($19): Jones has been playing through a hamstring injury since Week 1, but he finally seemed to put the injury behind him for the most part last week, setting season highs in carries (20), targets (six) and rushing yards (73) while getting into the end zone for the first time since the season opener. The veteran running back topped 1,000 rushing yards in three of the previous four seasons, and now that he's healthy, Jones should return to working as the focal point of a Packers offense with a lackluster passing game against a bend-don't-break Steelers defense that gives up plenty of yards. Pittsburgh's 133.1 rushing yards allowed per game are fourth-most in the NFL.

Honorable Mentions:

Jahmyr Gibbs, DET at LAC ($25); Rachaad White, TB vs. TEN ($18); Tyler Allgeier, ATL at ARI ($18)

Against the Grainers:

Derrick Henry, TEN at TB ($28); Keaton Mitchell, BAL vs. CLE ($16); Alexander Mattison, MIN vs. NO ($13)

WIDE RECEIVER

Keenan Allen, LAC vs. DET ($28): Lions-Chargers is expected to be the highest-scoring game in the Week 10 main slate, with an over/under of 48.5 points, and Allen should maintain a prominent role in LA's offense after seeing at least nine targets in seven of eight games thus far. He's sixth in catches (62) and seventh in receiving yards (720) despite the Chargers having already had their bye, and the Chargers will likely be forced into a pass-heavy game plan against a Detroit defense that's allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game but ranks in the middle of the pack against the pass.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA vs. WAS ($20): Smith-Njigba is slightly more affordable than either DK Metcalf ($23) or Tyler Lockett ($23). Both Seattle veterans make for sensible plays as well against a Commanders defense that has allowed the second-most yards (1,703) and touchdowns (13) to wide receivers, but Metcalf and Lockett have been playing at less than 100 percent due to injuries, while Smith-Njigba's role has been steadily increasing in recent weeks. After a slow start, the first WR selected in the 2023 NFL Draft has caught 13 of 18 targets for 162 yards and two touchdowns over the past three weeks, and Smith-Njigba could be on the verge of a true breakout game against Washington's vulnerable secondary. A hip injury surfaced for the promising rookie in Wednesday's practice, but if JSN suits up, he should be a strong choice as either a standalone option or part of a larger Seattle stack.

Chris Godwin, TB vs. TEN ($19): Godwin has been surprisingly inconsistent this season, but at a lower valuation than teammate Mike Evans, its tough to pass up this value against a Tennessee secondary that's allowing 117.9 yards per game to wide receivers -- sixth-most in the NFL. Prior to last week's 16-yard dud, Godwin had 25 catches for 311 yards and one touchdown on 37 targets over the previous four games. Some might shy away from the veteran wide receiver after last week's struggles, but if anything, Godwin will likely get some extra volume early to get him back on track.

Honorable Mentions:

CeeDee Lamb, DAL vs. NYG ($33); DeAndre Hopkins, TEN at TB ($26); Chris Olave, NO at MIN ($19)

Against the Grainers: 

Jordan Addison, MIN vs. NO ($22); Diontae Johnson, PIT vs. GB ($19); Tee Higgins, HOU vs. CIN ($17)

TIGHT END

Dalton Schultz, HOU at CIN ($21): Schultz accounted for 130 of C.J. Stroud's rookie record 470 passing yards last week, and he also led the Texans in catches (10) while scoring his fifth touchdown in the last six games. The former Dallas tight end has topped 60 yards in three of his last four games, and he's unlikely to slow down against a Bengals defense that has allowed 531 yards and four touchdowns to his position. The yardage allowed is fourth-highest in the NFL, while the TD total is one back of the five-way tie for the league's highest mark of five. Houston's running game has struggled all season and Cincinnati has allowed just five TDs to WRs all season, so Stroud may have no choice but to lean heavily on Schultz again in this matchup.

Honorable Mentions:

George Kittle, SF at JAC ($22); Sam LaPorta, DET at LAC ($22); Trey McBride, ARI vs. ATL ($16)

Against the Grainers: 

T.J. Hockenson, MIN vs. NO ($23); David Njoku, CLE at BAL ($14); Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. ARI ($13)

DEFENSE

Dallas Cowboys vs. NYG ($23): Paying top dollar for a defense is rarely worth it, but this week may be an exception. This unit scored 37 fantasy points against the Giants on the road in Week 1, and this rematch will be in Dallas against a New York offense that will be without its top two quarterbacks in Daniel Jones (knee) and Tyrod Taylor (ribs). Undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito will make his first NFL start for the Giants, and DeVito has thrown for just 174 yards in more than four full quarters of football over the past two weeks. The Giants are averaging a league-low 11.2 PPG and have allowed a league-high 49 sacks, while Dallas' 288.0 scrimmage yards allowed per game are third-fewest in the NFL. It's hard to see this unit performing poorly this week, while some of the best alternative options play outside the main slate, but justifying this salary still won't be easy.

Honorable Mentions:

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. GB ($20); Seattle Seahawks vs. WAS ($16); Green Bay Packers at PIT ($13)

Against the Grainers: 

Cleveland Browns at BAL ($16); San Francisco 49ers at JAC ($14); Arizona Cardinals vs. ATL ($13)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Sasha Yodashkin plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Youngsash, DraftKings: Yashdogg,Yahoo: Sasha, Fanball: Yashdogg.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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