NFL Championship Games Best Bets

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Best Bet for NFL Championship Games

It's ABOUT THAT TIME, BABY! Conference Championship Sunday is HERE! After the whole season, it comes down to Philly-Washington and Buffalo-KC for the the final four teams. Only two of them will play in Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans in two weeks. Who's going to the BIG GAME?

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) | Total: 48.5

Was there any other way this could have possibly played out? The two best QBs in the NFL squaring off for a shot at glory. The first time around this season, Buffalo had an epic late win back in Week 11, secured by an MVP type of play from Josh Allen, a wild 26-yard TD run with 2:17 left on the clock and the Bills up just 23-21. For a player who has had many lows when playing the Chiefs in the playoffs, Allen can make up for all of that on Sunday night. Is it Buffalo's time?

First off, I have to say I was DEAD WRONG on Buffalo this season. Coming into the year, I didn't think the Bills would go very far. Nor did I envision Allen playing at an MVP level. But 17 elevated his game to an entirely new platform, which would make me vote him for MVP if I was on the ballot this season. No QB has done more with less in 2024, and I don't think that's even up for debate. 

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Bills at Chiefs Breakdown

Last season, KC squeaked by Buffalo 27-24 in the Divisional Round with an early 4th quarter TD, and ended up winning the Super Bowl. In 2021, we all know about that 13 seconds left on the clock Divisional round scenario where Allen threw for 329 yards and four tuddies. The Chiefs ended up losing the next week to Cincy and the Rams won that Super Bowl. In 2020, KC waxed Buffalo 38-24 in the AFC title game, and ended up losing to Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl. Obviously, the sorrows of Buffalo have been overwhelming to this point.

For the Bills to win this game, Allen has to put on his cape again. I expect him to run the rock a handful like he did back in their Week 11 meeting. KC's defense has struggled containing QBs on the ground this season, allowing the seventh-most yards (434). That's especially stark considering the Chiefs run defense has only yielded the third fewest yards to RBs in 2024. That could mean trouble for James Cook (only 20 yards on nine carries in first meeting). With the lack of viable pass catching options in Buffalo outside of maybe Khalil Shakir, the team's leading receiver, the X-Factor in this game for me is TE Dalton Kincaid.

Meanwhile KC's pass defense (mainly against WRs) is one of the better units this season (top 10). However their matchups against opposing Tight Ends have given them problems as no team has allowed more yards to TE's (1,191), while they've also given up the second most catches (106). Kincaid missed the first go-around, but for Buffalo to successfully move the ball through the air, he's going to have to be a major player.

The regular season Chiefs of the last two seasons haven't been the same team we've watched in the Patrick Mahomes era (despite their record). But in the playoffs, this is a completely different team. Mahomes 42 TD/8 INT postseason ratio, 67.7% completion rate, and 279.6 pass YPG is impressive in and of itself, but adding in the clutch and timely plays he makes is really what gives defenses nightmares.

Things may be even easier for them as Buffalo is missing S Taylor Rapp and possibly CB Christian Benford. While the Bills defense ranks as one of the better units this season, they've still allowed 40 points each to the Lions and Rams. Knowing it's not as good as it is on paper, KC should be able to exploit their weaknesses. And nobody is better at that than playoff Travis Kelce.

Kelce causally grabbed 97 passes this season, even though it seemed like he was going through the motions in the regular season. Playoff Trav is different. Four TDs in his last four playoff games, 90+ yards in each of his last three (100+ in two of them), and seven catches or more in his last three, shows he's just pacing himself for when it really matters. I'm looking for him to have a big game on Sunday.

On the ground, it's been a bit of mix for KC lately with Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt. Since back from injury, Pacheco has not looked like himself. Hunt has been more of the 1A, especially near the goal line. The run game hasn't been overly effective from a statistical perspective as neither back has mustered 60 yards individually. It's likely they run just an extension of the pass game and in key situations and in the red zone.

Bills at Chiefs Bet

In a matchup like this, I feel like we can throw out a lot of the stats and numbers. It's a battle of wills between two sworn enemies. I'm expecting it another close game.  But one thing I've learned is to not bet against Mahomes in the playoffs. Give me the Chiefs.

Pick: Chiefs ML -126 FD