Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Kansas City Chiefs have somehow maintained an undefeated record despite a dreadful offensive output all year, though the latter outcome was almost entirely due to injuries – first Marquise Brown, then Rashee Rice, then Isiah Pacheco. The Chiefs added some help last week by trading for DeAndre Hopkins, though, and they appear ready to unleash him more going forward after gingerly working Hopkins into the offense against the Raiders. The Buccaneers are going through painful injuries of their own on offense with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out, but last week the Buccaneers were able to keep moving the ball by reallocating usage toward tight end (Cade Otton) and their deep backfield. That the 4-4 Buccaneers have to head to Arrowhead for this game makes it unlikely that they preserve their .500 record. The Chiefs are favored by 9.0 with the over/under at 45.5.

QUARTERBACK

Patrick Mahomes ($10000 DK, $16000 FD) has had a dreadful statistical season but he has played well despite the real struggles indicated in those stats. The wide receiver personnel in Kansas City has been dreadful in light of the injuries to Brown and Rice, but if Mahomes is still playing good football (he is) then the addition of Hopkins could be big here, especially given the struggles of the Tampa Bay pass defense. Mahomes will not stay down for long, and this looks like his most favorable playing circumstances of the year so far.

Baker Mayfield ($9600 DK, $15500 FD) has been one of the top fantasy quarterbacks of 2024 and could very well finish the season as one of the most productive quarterbacks, but this looks like a potentially challenging setting. The Buccaneers have a deep backfield to draw upon and might be able to put together some passing yardage by utilizing those targets, but without Evans and Godwin it's exceedingly difficult to take on a defense as good as the Chiefs, especially at Arrowhead. If Mayfield's fantasy investors have a secret weapon it would be the passing volume of the Buccaneers offense – the bad Tampa defense constantly provokes the need to throw aggressively to catch up, and if Mayfield can get to 40 pass attempts then it would offset poor efficiency somewhat.

RUNNING BACK

Any of Rachaad White ($7400 DK, $12500 FD), Bucky Irving ($7200 DK, $10500 FD) or Sean Tucker ($2600 DK, $7000 FD) is capable of producing with opportunity, but in general it's White and Irving who get most of the work. Irving has arguably emerged as the team's top pure runner, while White remains the overall snap leader as well as the team's top pass-catching back. Tucker can run and pass catch both, making him a worthwhile punt pick who could be productive if he sees a surprising workload level in this game. Given Tampa Bay's shortage at receiver, at least two of these running backs should be busy from scrimmage (probably White and Irving).

Kareem Hunt ($9800 DK, $14000 FD) hasn't been especially effective but the Chiefs apparently are not interested in exacting any particular standard upon him – until Isiah Pacheco returns it appears Hunt will get a three-down role in this offense, which in this game at least projects to score points. A big game for Mahomes could easily mean a big game for Hunt too, because Hunt has been awarded a near monopoly on scoring opportunities from the Kansas City backfield. Samaje Perine ($4400 DK, $7000 FD) can probably do anything Hunt can, but for now the Chiefs are only using Perine as a passing-down specialist, and more specifically yet a pass-blocking specialist. Carson Steele ($2400 DK, $6000 FD) is also hanging around and for some reason the Chiefs like to still give him fruitless usage occasionally, but generally it would be surprising if he played so many as 15 snaps.

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

There's some garbage-time upside perhaps to be found in the Tampa Bay wideouts – Jalen McMillan ($6200 DK, $9500 FD), Sterling Shepard ($5600 DK, $8000 FD) and Trey Palmer ($4000 DK, $7500 FD) – but in general they have appeared overexposed in light of the Evans and Godwin injuries, and moreover McMillan and Shepard are both questionable with hamstring injuries. If McMillan or Shepard are out or limited then it opens up practice squad types Rakim Jarrett ($2000 DK, $6500 FD) and Ryan Miller as punt sleepers. In general, though, the best route runner for Tampa Bay and the one worth paying up for appears to be tight end Cade Otton ($8400 DK, $10000 FD). Otton isn't guaranteed a big game here, but he pretty clearly appears to be the No. 1 target for Tampa while the star wideouts are unavailable.

DeAndre Hopkins ($7000 DK, $9500 FD) is probably going to get rolling in this game. The ability is there, the need is there, and the matchup couldn't be much more favorable. The Tampa corners can't cover him, and the Chiefs offense has so much slack falling on the wideouts due to the inability of players like Justin Watson to produce at all from scrimmage. Xavier Worthy ($8200 DK, $11500 FD) is also in a great spot here, and of course he offers more big-play upside than Hopkins does. Watson is truly one of the worst players in the NFL, but Andy Reid for some reason adores him and perhaps Watson can bumble his way into a Revenge Game against the Buccaneers. Mecole Hardman seems unlikely to see usage opportunities despite unambiguously outproducing Watson to a jarring extent. Of course, Travis Kelce ($8800 DK, $13000 FD) is capable of a big game here – the Hopkins emergence might actually make life easier on Kelce if Hopkins can draw away some defensive attention – God knows Watson never will. Noah Gray ($2500 DK, $6500 FD) is an ideal punt play because he has logged 40-plus snaps in three straight weeks. Usually a tight end with that much playing time would cost more.

KICKER

Harrison Butker ($5200 DK, $9000 FD) is one of the better kickers in the league and this is close to an ideal matchup for him. As much as the Chiefs might be scoring touchdowns in this game more than they have all year, there could still be room for multiple field goal attempts for Butker.

Chase McLaughlin ($4800 DK, $8500 FD) is quietly one of the best NFL kickers himself, but the matchup seems less inviting for him. If the Buccaneers can move the ball regularly then McLaughlin should be a fine pick here, but the concern is that the excellent Kansas City defense leaves the Tampa offense in some difficult spots, including some situations where they might need to forego field goal attempts to instead pursue touchdowns.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

This is quite simply not the year you want to pick the Buccaneers ($3600 DK, $8500 FD) in fantasy. They have a handful of injury excuses so it's not all their fault, but the fact is the Buccaneers have one of the very worst defenses in the league and their corner personnel is not prepared to deal with the Chiefs offense now that Hopkins is about to be set loose.

Kansas City ($5000 DK, $9000 FD) projects fairly well here, by contrast. The Chiefs defense is excellent in general, and they're always a little (or lot) better at Arrowhead. Meanwhile, despite his otherwise strong season, Mayfield has been turnover-prone his entire career and that includes 2024. Mayfield has seven interceptions in the last three weeks and that trend could continue in this difficult setting.