Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Chargers vs. Saints

Despite the absence of two of the top offensive players in Monday's night game between the Chargers and Saints, we still have a decent 49.5-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook, with New Orleans 6.5-point home favorites. The Chargers will be without starting running back Austin Ekeler, who is sidelined with a hamstring injury, while the Saints won't have star wide receiver Michael Thomas, who was originally questionable to play because of an ankle injury but was then ruled out as punishment for an altercation in practice this weekend. They both play huge roles for their respective offenses, and while we've seen how the Saints adjusted without Thomas, how the Chargers go in a full game without Ekeler remains to be seen (duh).

ALVIN KAMARA

Before we dive into the positional breakdowns, we have to start with Alvin Kamara ($12,000 DK, $16,000 FD), the most expensive player by $1,600 on DraftKings and $1,500 on FanDuel. Kamara sits atop the running back depth chart, but he's also been the Saints' most prolific receiver with Thomas sidelined. Leading the team in rushing attempts (50), rushing yards (236), rushing touchdowns (four), targets (35), receptions (30), receiving yards (321) and receiving touchdowns (three), it's not wonder why he's the most expensive player on both sites. With Thomas out again, there's every reason to believe the offense will completely revolve around Kamara, making him the most popular player on the slate and likely the most popular captain even though his price on DraftKings pushes to $18,000 with the salary multiplier (in fairness, that's actually less than Russell Wilson on Sunday night).

QUARTERBACKS

We have opposing quarterbacks on the opposite sides of their careers, with 41-year-old Drew Brees ($10,400 DK, $14,500 FD) under center for the Saints against 22-year-old rookie Justin Herbert ($10,200 DK, $14,000 FD) starting for the Chargers. Brees' best days are surely behind him, though the absence of Thomas, his favorite receiver over the past few years, is certainly playing a part of that. He doesn't have a real breakout game this season, but he's still managed to throw for at least 300 yards or multiple touchdowns in every start. Topping out at 23.52 fantasy points this season, Brees seems like an unlikely captain/MVP on this slate, if only because of the Saints' reliance on Kamara and the rest of their running game, plus their somewhat small target tree. If you want access to the Saints' passing game against a Chargers defense that's allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks on DraftKings and fourth-most on FanDuel this season, it actually seems more beneficial to focus on the pass catchers, especially because they are cheaper. Then again, a lot of those defensive struggles came against Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady, while they mostly held Joe Burrow and Teddy Bridgewater in check.

Statistically (at least from a fantasy-points allowed perspective), the Saints have been slightly better against quarterbacks than the Chargers, but they've been consistently poor, having allowed three touchdowns to the position in every game this season, which came against Tom Brady, Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers and Brady. Herbert is coming off his best game, completing 20-of-25 passes for 290 yards and three touchdowns against Tampa Bay, which came after he threw for more than 300 yards in each of his first two career starts. He has also shown a slight rushing floor, picking up 18, 15 and 14 yards in the last three, respectively. Herbert probably would have been more popular if he were cheaper, but as the third most-expensive player on both sites, you're really committing to him if you're rostering him in the captain/MVP spot. Then again, as a 6.5-point underdog, there has to be some expectation that he'll be throwing more than Brees.

RUNNING BACKS

Kamara is going to be popular, but he's also not the only running back who needs to be considered, even on the Saints side. Latavius Murray ($4,800 DK, $8,000 FD) still gets a decent amount of work, and we saw what he can do with the touches last week against Detroit when he rushed 14 times for 64 yards and two touchdowns. It was his third game this season with at least a dozen rushing attempts, and while he's only been targeted six times, he makes for a decent complement to Kamara given that you're rostering basically all of the running back opportunities AND getting the Saints' top receiver for only $16,800 on DraftKings (if both are used in the flex) and $24,000 on FanDuel. A 6.5-point spread seems to indicate the Saints will try to run some clock when they get ahead, which only works in Murray's favor. 

Kamara and Murray aren't the only ones who have had rushing attempts this season, but the only other active running back to get a carry this season is fullback Michael Burton ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), who has rushed once for four yards and caught his only target for three yards this season (all were last week though!).

The Chargers' backfield situation is nearly as tight, with Joshua Kelley ($8,200 DK, $12,000 FD) theoretically getting more carries now that he's not competing with Ekeler. Kelley's 52 rushing attempts are actually three more than Ekeler has gotten this season, though a poor 3.3 yards per carry average has gotten him only 174 rushing yards versus Ekeler's 5.1 for 248. However, Kelley's struggles will certainly open up opportunities for Justin Jackson ($4,400 DK, $7,500 FD), who only played 40 percent of snaps last week versus Kelley's 57 percent, but he still rushed six times and was targeted twice while Kelley had nine carries and three targets. Unfortunately, both were pretty horrific, combining for 15 rushing yards and 27 receiving yards against a very tough (against the run) Buccaneers defense. Given the split, it's tough to justify paying up for Kelley when you can potentially get similar production from Jackson for a much lower price.

Additionally, Kelley has lost a fumble in back-to-back games while getting fewer carries in Weeks 3 and 4 versus 1 and 2, and his cumulative numbers are better than Jackson's because the latter missed two games due to injury. There's also a guy named Gabe Nabers ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), who rushed once for four yards and caught his only target for five receiving yards last week, but it's really tough to see him making any serviceable contribution as long as Kelley and Jackson are healthy. With question marks around Kelley, he may not be all that popular, and captaining/MVPing either one seems like a strategy for those who are perfectly fine finishing last if they don't finish first (which is actually how almost every GPP should be played).

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

Inconsistency in the backfield could lead the Chargers to throw more, though they'll be doing so against a Saints defense that's allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers on DraftKings and seventh-fewest on FanDuel, even though one wide receiver caught a touchdown in each game. Keenan Allen ($9,400 DK, $12,500 FD) is the main guy for the Chargers, leading them in targets (48), receptions (32), receiving yards (327) and air yards (418). Those numbers rank extremely well league-wide too, as only one player had more targets, two had more receiving yards and three had more receptions through the first four weeks. With the potential inconsistency of a rookie quarterback in his first Monday Night Football game, focusing on Allen as a captain/MVP is certainly an option.

Tight end Hunter Henry ($7,800 DK, $9,500 FD) is an interesting alternative, not only because he is cheaper but also because the Saints have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, including at least one touchdown in every game (five total). Henry's targets have been moving in the wrong direction, from eight in each of the first two games to seven and four in the last two, but he still remains a very solid option who just needs Herbert to give him a few more looks. The absence of Ekeler theoretically opens up more target opportunities, though Kelley and Jackson are good pass catchers, so it's not like they will automatically turn to Henry, who probably doesn't make a great captain/MVP choice anyway.

Allen and Henry are the only active Chargers with more than seven targets this season, but part of that is because wide receiver Mike Williams ($5,000 DK, $8,000 FD) missed time with a hamstring injury, one that has him officially questionable Monday. Despite only 14 targets in three games, Williams' 243 air yards are more than anyone but Allen, and his 17.4 aDOT confirms he's a solid down-field threat. Unfortunately, it seems the hamstring will be an issue even if he's active, so you have to wonder how quickly he can go deep. If he misses out, Jalen Guyton ($4,200 DK, $7,000 FD) could step in, and he showed last week that he can be a big-play threat, turning his only target into a 72-yard touchdown. It was his second receiving touchdown of the season, which actually leads the team, a pretty impressive (or not) point given he's only caught five of seven targets for 125 yards. His speed is certainly helpful, as he has 124 air yards to give him a 17.7 aDOT, the highest on the team among players who have had multiple targets. 

Jason Moore ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) could also get some more offensive snaps if Williams is out, though he played 25 last week and wasn't targeted at all. But maybe total snaps aren't that important, as Tyron Johnson ($1,800 DK, $6,500 FD) showed you don't need a lot to make an impact, as he scored a 53-yard touchdown on his lone target last week against Tampa while playing only eight offensive snaps. That was actually a bit of a theme, as backup tight end Donald Parham ($1,200 DK, $6,000 FD) caught a touchdown pass on his lone snap, a 19-yarder, officially giving him more red-zone targets than Kelley, Jackson, Nabers, Johnson,  and Virgil Green ($600 DK, $5,000 FD).

Thomas' injury theoretically opens up a lot of targets for other wide receivers, but the target tree remains pretty small for the Saints, with Emmanuel Sanders ($5,600 DK, $10,000 FD) and Tre'Quan Smith ($7,000 DK, $9,500 FD) the only players other than Kamara to be targeted more than nine times. The one positive is that they do get looks near the end zone, with Sanders getting five targets inside the 20, including three inside the 10 and two inside the five. Meanwhile, Smith has four red-zone looks, including one from inside the five, giving him some touchdown upside if they can get close. 

And speaking of those types of targets, the Saints may get tight end Jared Cook ($6,200 DK, $11,000 FD) back from injury, and he comes in with more targets inside the 10 than anyone but Sanders, and those came in only three games. Cook is fourth on the team in targets and receptions, partially because he didn't play last week, and while he doesn't run long routes, he still has a 10.6 aDOT, which is the highest on the team among players with multiple targets. Everyone knows at this point that Brees isn't throwing far down field, but Cook at least provides a tad more potential in that area. Backup tight end Adam Trautman ($1,000 DK, $5,500 FD) has a slightly lower 10.3 aDOT on his three targets, including zero last week when he started for Cook, but if you believe in bounce-back games after being a popular DFS play the prior week (congratulations to you Brandin Cooks believers), then Trautman has to be in play, right? Third-stringer Josh Hill ($800 DK, $5,500 FD) actually did catch a pass last week on his only target, but seven receiving yards isn't going to do much for us, even at a reduced price.

The wildcard of the group is Taysom Hill ($1,600 DK, $6,500 FD), who is a quarterback on DraftKings and a tight end on FanDuel, though positions don't matter in single-game formats. Hill does a little bit of everything for the Saints (emphasis on little), as he caught all three of his targets this season for 23 yards (two air yards), he completed his only passing attempt for 38 yards, and he rushed 10 times for 33. The Saints, who signed him to a two-year contract extension that gave him $16 million guaranteed, seem intent on giving him a few touches each game, but there's really no reason to think there will be enough to justify using him as anything more than a touchdown prayer because the volume of passing, rushing or receiving is limited.

KICKERS

As usual, using one or two kickers won't be a strategy most employ in GPPs because there are a decent number of points expected, but Wil Lutz ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD) and Michael Badgley ($3,800 DK, $8,500 FD) make some sense in cash games because of their somewhat decent floors. Both players have scored at least 9.0 fantasy points in at least half of their games, and you really just have to consider them against backup skill position players who have touchdown upside. They are more expensive on FanDuel, where they are in the same salary as guys like Smith, Williams and Murray, while on DraftKings they're closer to Jackson, Guyton and the defenses. Jackson will probably end up with more opportunities overall in that price range, which should push the popularity of the kickers down a bit on DraftKings, while Murray seems like the more likely play on FanDuel.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Facing a rookie quarterback who has turned the ball over at least once in all of his three starts will certainly make some people consider the Saints ($3,600), who come in with just one turnover in their past two games and five this season, along with 10 sacks. From a fantasy perspective, the Saints really haven't been that good, scoring more than four fantasy points only once, so you're really playing against Herbert, who has been sacked six times, than you are for New Orleans. 

The Chargers defense ($2,800) seemed like it was going to be a strength, but they have just three turnovers and six sacks in four games, and two of the turnovers and three of the sacks came in Week 1. Brees isn't the most mobile quarterback, but he also doesn't get sacked a lot, so this does seem like a slate where the defenses won't be priorities, which obviously makes them attractive from a contrarian standpoint.