Film Review: Fool's Gold

Jacksonville vs. Chargers

I don't know if his recent foot and knee issues have anything to do with it, but Melvin Gordon does not look good. I'm skeptical that he's running faster than a 4.65 right now – he absolutely is one of the slowest running backs with regular playing time at the moment. If you can still sell, I say do it. I have no idea what Austin Ekeler might be – he was off my radar as a prospect and you all probably know him as well as me at this point – but it's safe to say he was the better player as of Sunday. Again, I don't know whether health has something to do with that, but it is in any case the reality for now.

Travis Benjamin got Telvin Smith in coverage on a second quarter play and of course got open, but Rivers was way off the mark on the ensuing end-zone target. He can still heave the ball some significant distance, but no longer with much accuracy. That he's functional only on short throws means only Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry can project for any reliable usage the rest of the way, no matter how much Benjamin, Tyrell Williams, and Mike Williams might get open. What a pointless draft pick Mike was, by the way. Good prospect, but his only avenue of contribution is to cannibalize the snaps of other and (in the meantime, anyway) better wideouts.

His accuracy is often subject to a series of coin tosses, and his decision making sometimes falters on a similar basis, but Blake Bortles has at least settled in with some semblance of composure. Whatever his issues, the Jaguars have a coherent plan for him in place, and he's executing it well enough. That bodes well for Marqise Lee, who's quietly seen some of the highest target volume in the league over the past month. He had 11 targets in this one, giving him double-digit targets in three of the last four games. Whatever your expectations for Dede Westbrook with Allen Hurns out, you can't project him as a contender for the team's WR1 role. It's Lee's.

Although he didn't have much to show in the way of numbers, Leonard Fournette looked as good as ever. If he has good durability luck he'll be a strong candidate to finish a couple seasons as the RB1 before his career is over. Corey Grant is a legitimately explosive runner, but his touchdown scamper was on a fake punt.

Tampa Bay vs. Jets

Josh McCown wasn't at his best in this game, but he was under more pressure than one could have expected given how lethargic Tampa's pass rush has been all year. McCown's interception was on a deep throw down the seam to Robby Anderson, with the safety picking off an overthrow. Even in the midst of a breakout season, Anderson has narrowly missed a great deal of yardage between drops and off target throws. He's a WR2 in a strong offense, but I think he'd project as one of the league's best in that capacity. His combination of length and explosiveness is dangerous on the perimeter. In a game where McCown and Ryan Fitzpatrick carried all the Revenge Game narratives, Austin Seferian-Jenkins was the only player to actually acquit himself well against his former team. His depth of target is problematically low for fantasy, but he's definitely one of the league's best talents at tight end. He should prove more explosive in future seasons. Fourth-round pick Chad Hansen is ahead of third-round pick ArDarius Stewart on the depth chart. I never liked Stewart as a prospect – I doubt Hansen ever loses his lead.

A surprisingly good game from the Tampa defense and some early-down penalties turned the game flow against Bilal Powell, crushing his usage despite a close game. His fantasy owners may seek to identify some cause to blame for his letdown game, but it's probably just one of those outcomes that happened for no real reason. Elijah McGuire has been profoundly sluggish since his ten-carry, 93-yard showing in Week 4. He has just 103 yards on 46 carries (2.2 YPC) since. It will be difficult to buy in when/if he has another opportunity, although he's at least a good pass catcher all the same.

Chris Godwin is very good. It's preposterous that he's not ahead of Adam Humphries on the depth chart. Still, I think injury to one of the receivers ahead of him is the only way Godwin gets an opportunity before Dirk Koetter gets fired. DeSean Jackson is still very good, too – it's a shame he doesn't have higher usage in a better offense. He did a lot of underneath and intermediate work in this one – that he's regarded as a one-dimensional deep threat is probably attributable to self-fulfilling prophecy on the part of his post-Andy Reid playcallers. He's not fundamentally different from when he was one of the most feared players in the league under Reid's watch. Unfortunately, Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't capable of capitalizing on Jackson's downfield abilities. That Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard did nothing in this game is puzzling from a game planning standpoint, but going forward it might be best to scale back their projections for games where Tampa isn't expected to fall behind early.

Doug Martin has generally looked good to me this year, but the production just hasn't been there. There's always some issue derailing his upside. When he's running well and gets volume, it's against a tough defense (Arizona, Buffalo, Carolina). When he gets a weaker run defense (NE, NO), he doesn't get volume. This game had the volume and a decent enough matchup, but there still wasn't any room to run. On a team defined by dysfunction, it's hard to see why everything would line up just right for Martin at any remaining points this year.

Detroit vs. Cleveland

DeShone Kizer looked better than he has all year in this game, and he actually had the Browns competitive before a first quarter drive where a long completion to Kenny Britt was called back on what would be the first of consecutive plays negated by a holding call on Cleveland. Then they drew an illegal formation call the next play. Perhaps you have to give some of the 'credit' for Kizer's fine showing to the Detroit defense, but I'll try to be optimistic for Kizer instead.

With a first half drop and a fumble that was returned for a touchdown, Seth DeValve might have given Cleveland reason to promote David Njoku to the top tight end role. DeValve has some talent, but he was only ahead of Njoku for an ostensibly stable veteran presence. If he can't be trusted to do the little things right, they might as well make the shift to Njoku now. Njoku was just missed on a handful of near-impact receptions, including what would have been a two-yard touchdown reception if he had got both of his feet down in bounds. DeValve did have a productive day aside from the previously mentioned mistakes, though, including a 36-yard third quarter catch that was one foot away from a touchdown.

It marked the second strong game in a row for Isaiah Crowell, but the tape doesn't look any different to me than when he was struggling. He should provide an RB2 ceiling when the Cleveland offense is moving the ball and getting him into scoring range, but who knows how often that will be the case. At least in PPR formats, I'd still prefer to have Duke Johnson.

Ameer Abdullah's touchdown run was on a draw. He's never going to develop a tackle-breaking skill set and doesn't have the speed to split the safeties, but at least he can cut through open field at an above average level. Still, this is a part time player in even an average NFL backfield. I used to think Abdullah was a clearly better running back than Theo Riddick, but now I'm not so sure.

A lively Cleveland pass rush gave Matthew Stafford more trouble than most quarterbacks have dealt with when playing the Browns this year, but as is usually the case when he's at home, Stafford settled in and routinely made strong throws to get the better of Cleveland's questionable coverage. Marvin Jones had his lowest snap count (50) of the season, but it doesn't explain how he saw just two targets – that's once every 25 snaps in a season where he averages a target every nine snaps. Jones should settle back in as a mid-to-low-end WR2 type, but the return of Kenny Golladay does present at least a slight threat to the elevated usage Jones saw in the past month. Golladay was very impressive in his return – he only played 11 snaps, with most of them in the second half as Detroit turned to him for a spark with the game close at halftime. His long catch was a brilliant show of hands and body control. They need him in the red zone. Golden Tate is absolutely one of the best receivers in the NFL – his ability to create yardage after the catch is probably top five at the position.

Indianapolis vs. Pittsburgh

I am 100 positive that Ben Roethlisberger blames Martavis Bryant for Roethlisberger's interception on the first drive. The ball was underthrown and inside and the corner had safety help, but this play will be used as a further pretext to pretend Bryant doesn't merit targets. Good thing they didn't trade him! Anyway, Roethlisberger has been terrible all year and I don't see any reason to think that will change.

Juju Smith-Schuster is very good, however, and that he's been so productive at age 20 with a bad quarterback is immensely impressive. JSS is greater than the sum of his athletic tools, but his innate skill as a receiver is truly rare, and it's possible that his mediocre athletic testing was somewhat attributable to being one to three years younger than his peers. His fantasy production in the two games prior to this one were the result of two fluky long touchdowns, but his production from this game was the sort of thing you can reliably use for future projection.

Le'Veon Bell was sluggish in this one, rarely showing much resistance to tacklers and seemingly lacking his typical burst. Maybe that's just an optical illusion I fall to in order to explain the disappointing production, but it nonetheless appeared to be the case. A weird trend that might be worth monitoring with Bell is dome struggles – it might be noise, but Bell has averaged 2.9 yards per carry in three career indoor games. As long as there is no report of injury you would in any case expect Bell to bounce back going forward.

Don't look now, but Jacoby Brissett is in the midst of a decidedly impressive sophomore season. He remains somewhat raw and never was the most natural passer, but his tools and mettle are undeniable. That he's done this with a below average supporting cast bodes all the better for his prospect projection. Still 23, Brissett is better than a great deal of the quarterbacks teams will spend first-round picks on in the upcoming years. In hindsight, New England's decision to trade him for Phillip Dorsett was an enormous error.

When you see Artie Burns get completely toasted by Donte Moncrief on a fly route that resulted in a 60-yard touchdown, it's hard not to wonder how the Pittsburgh pass defense has been so good this year. Moncrief is a buy low in dynasty formats but for now the target volume isn't there to capitalize on what I think is still a good prospect profile. Chester Rogers may have some amount of slot prospect value, but he's a backup-level talent and I definitely wouldn't go chasing his numbers from this game.

Buffalo vs. New Orleans

What started as a promising first drive, highlighted by a long LeSean McCoy run on the second snap, would give way to an absolute nightmare game for the Bills, who appeared a trap game threat to a traveling dome team. The complete evaporation of the Buffalo defense was something to behold. I don't know how much of it you can attribute to the dismissal of Marcell Dareus, but I would guess some significant amount. After such an embarrassing loss and the benching of Tyrod Taylor in the broader context of Buffalo's war against its best players, I think the Bills leadership is at serious risk of losing its team. Why would you play hard for a regime that's systemically picking off its best players?

New Orleans' usage of Willie Snead continues to baffle me. He's better than Brandon Coleman – that's simply the case. Yet there still appears no intention of getting Snead involved. While he played 36 snaps in this game, he saw zero targets to Coleman's four. It's possible that Snead played specifically because the game wasn't competitive.

Green Bay vs. Chicago

I generally consider him at best harmless and a drag more often than not, but credit to Mike McCarthy for a strong game plan against a well-schemed Chicago defense that should have had every advantage in this game. Despite the improved results, I didn't see anything fundamentally different with Brett Hundley, so I'm not optimistic about his chances of maintaining momentum, especially with the Ravens up next. Hundley has good accuracy and great physical tools, but he struggles to interpret the field. When he's not making simple throws like curls and outs on the periphery, the accuracy and velocity of his throws are rendered moot. Good as he is, I'd sell Davante Adams if I owned him anywhere.

I'll never stop insisting that Ty Montgomery is one of the NFL's most skilled runners, but even I would concede that his long touchdown run was mainly the result of the Chicago defense botching its assignments on the play. It's now more frustrating than ever that Green Bay didn't shut down Montgomery so his broken ribs could heal fully – now that Aaron Jones' injury has deprived Green Bay of its depth, Montgomery's plateaued recovery has robbed him of the chance of reclaiming his starting role. Jamaal Williams runs hard and was productive in college, but I don't think he was necessarily worth drafting, and certainly not in the fourth round. Williams could have some value if he gets volume, but Devante Mays is the more skilled runner, and a better athlete.

Even as someone who was skeptical of him earlier this year, and even more so skeptical of him as a prospect, I don't understand why the Bears don't use Tarik Cohen more. Even if they can't manufacture looks for him as a running back, he merits extensive usage as a pass catcher since he's probably the team's most skilled slot receiver. Benny Cunningham has always had some promise, but in his current utilization he's at best redundant to Cohen, and more likely a downgrade.

Mitchell Trubisky wasn't prepared for NFL offenses or coverages by a highly scripted North Carolina offense, but he would project as an above average starter if he shows the ability to learn. So far, I think you have to be optimistic. He hasn't been fazed by the pressure of the spotlight, and he's maintained composure when dealing with difficult circumstances. This was his best game yet, and his work with the recently acquire Dontrelle Inman in particular was encouraging. I don't expect him to maintain an average around ten yards per target, and we can't even take for granted that he's the team's WR1 given the fluctuations the team has seen at receiver, but Inman nonetheless projects as one of the top risers at receiver from this point.

I'm eager to see what Adam Shaheen can do. I've never witnessed a tight end prospect like him – I think he's a Gronkowski/Kelce-type athlete when adjusting for size, but in opting to carry at least 270 pounds on his frame, Shaheen trades off some speed and quickness for a downright weird amount of strength at the position. He's going to break a lot of tackles and probably hurt some people.

Washington vs. Minnesota

I don't understand how this game was high scoring. Even with Everson Griffen out, the Minnesota defense should have held strong against a battered Washington offensive line, and the disappearance of Washington's cornerbacks seemed rather arbitrary given how tough Josh Norman and Kendall Fuller otherwise played this year. It takes plays like Maurice Harris' improbable one-handed touchdown grab on an ill-advised throw for a game like this to happen. It was, evidently, just one of those days.

I don't have the split stats to prove it, but Case Keenum has made a number of exceptional deep throws off playaction this year. Stefon Diggs' scorching of Josh Norman occurred on such a play, with the talented wideout getting outside and ahead of Norman and the ball landing in a spot where Diggs could grab it without at all altering his speed or positioning. Diggs would get his touchdown on a short route against Bashaud Breeland, however. Adam Thielen's dominant game was a surprise given how much he saw of Fuller, but at this point it's simply safe to say that Thielen is one of the league's best receivers, and as a slot receiver he's fairly immune to problematic matchups since he (A) rarely sees other teams' top corner and (B) isn't as easily double-teamed by a safety in the slot.

Much to my dismay, given my DFS investments, Latavius Murray functioned as the clear lead runner over Jerick McKinnon. That Murray had a good day was merely the result of the usage – he's a glaring example of a replacement-level talent. McKinnon doesn't have much power as a runner, but he's much better at exploiting space when it's there. I'd still stick with McKinnon over Murray by a significant margin in fantasy.

Although I was once skeptical of him and have said for about a month now that his season is going to fall apart, I'm fully convinced that Kirk Cousins is a very good quarterback. He keeps getting dealt bad hands this year but keeps finding different ways to scrape together good production. Even with a destroyed offensive line and a shortage of viable pass catchers, you just can't seem to shut him out. I see nothing sustainable about his play this year, but for the most part it has kept sustaining itself.

Vernon Davis pretty much functions as the WR1 in this offense, and his effectiveness has been a big part of how Cousins has weathered this storm. I don't see any way Washington phases Davis out of his current role, even if Jordan Reed is healthy. There's a case to make that Davis is just better than Reed generally. Maybe Reed reestablishes some amount of fantasy value this year, but I just can't imagine it being much at Davis' expense. I think Terrelle Pryor and Josh Doctson would both be useful assets if used correctly, but Washington continues to show little more than contempt for the former. At least Doctson saw seven targets on 69 snaps – he'll normally have much more to show for it when he's not dealing with Xavier Rhodes. Jamison Crowder is poised for a strong finish with 24 targets in his last two games.

Even with Rob Kelley's injury, Samaje Perine won't challenge Chris Thompson as Washington's leading contributor at running back. I do think Perine is clearly a better runner than Kelley, however, and this was Perine's best game as a pro.

Rams vs. Houston

It feels a bit cruel to rag on Tom Savage at this point. He knows he's just absorbing hits until Houston's season mercifully ends. He can't play, and he probably isn't worth a spot on an NFL roster. The only player he's good for in this offense is Bruce Ellington, who has seen eight targets in each of the last two weeks. Savage won't be hitting downfield targets anytime soon, so Ellington should theoretically continue seeing checkdown targets. Ellington did have a bad third-down drop in the first quarter on a nice Savage throw, however.

The Rams offense is a bit more interesting. I took Robert Woods for a mere possession target before this year, but that was clearly wrong. It turns out his early-career dominance at USC really was an indicator of long-term upside, and it's come to fruition in his fifth season. It's still frustrating that Sammy Watkins is rarely prominent in the read progressions. Keep an eye on his injury status – he seemed to be favoring his foot a bit as early as the second quarter in this one.

If Todd Gurley can do what he did to the Texans defense, which had been the least favorable to opposing running backs heading into Sunday, then he's truly matchup proof. He's playing better than any running back right now.

San Francisco vs. Giants

Perhaps I was wrong about C.J. Beathard. I still doubt his fitness for starting in the NFL, but this was his first game against a bad defense, and he thrived. To be fair to Beathard, all of his previous starts – Washington, Dallas, Philadelphia, and Arizona – were challenging matchups in various ways. I think the 49ers would be smart to get Jimmy Garoppolo into the starting lineup after the bye, so Beathard can't harm his trade value by playing against the Seahawks.

Marquise Goodwin still probably profiles as an outside WR3 in a good receiver rotation, but for now he's landing a sufficient number of punches as the lead wideout for San Francisco. It's puzzling that he saw just two targets in this game, but two eight-target games in the three prior weeks indicates the low target volume was an anomaly. He projects as a potential top-25 fantasy receiver the rest of the way. With five catches of over 40 yards on 56 targets, San Francisco has reason to feed him. If Garrett Celek can light up the Giants, then truly any tight end can.

Carlos Hyde continues to play very well, and any attempt to equivocate him and Matt Breida is silliness. Hyde is clearly the better player in all regards. Kyle Shanahan is one of the league's best schemers and playcallers, but his personnel evaluation deserves doubt.

Evan Engram is poised for a monster finish. He's seeing snaps as an outside wide receiver, which he absolutely can play. In fact, he'd rank as one of the most athletic receivers in the NFL. That he's getting usage like one with tight end classification in fantasy creates a cheat code scenario similar to Marques Colston's rookie season, when he briefly was categorized as a tight end. Eli Manning isn't good, but Engram's talent and usage make the fact irrelevant for Engram's fantasy value. Sterling Shepard is also poised for a monster finish. He should average ten or more targets per game the rest of the way, and he's remarkably averaging 9.1 yards per target even as Eli averages just 6.3 yards per pass.

Orleans Darkwa didn't find the end zone, but he played well enough in this one. As long as he stays healthy – a problem for him at Tulane – he should push for top-25 status at running back the rest of the way.

Atlanta vs. Dallas

Chaz Green will live in infamy for allowing six sacks to Adrian Clayborn, a player with a previous career high of 7.5 sacks in a season, but he never should have been there. More of a guard prospect than a tackle, Dallas compounded Green's liability with a failure to scheme adequate help. The front office dropped the ball in leaving him as the top backup to Smith, and the coaches made it worse. With Ezekiel Elliott suspended and Dez Bryant at less than full strength, this setting fully exposed the fact that Dak Prescott really doesn't have much help at wide receiver. While I would never bet against Dak in the long run, the odds might be too stacked against him as long as Tyron Smith is sidelined.

As many suspected, Alfred Morris was limited to run-specific situations. He ran well enough, but how is he going to provide reliable fantasy value if he's playing 22 snaps? The bigger, more athletic Rod Smith was Dallas' preferred option in passing and hurry-up situations, playing 38 snaps but seeing just three carries to Morris' 11.

It's of course awful that Devonta Freeman suffered a concussion, but I'm excited to see what Tevin Coleman can do in a starting role. As good as Freeman is – and he's very good – Coleman's jets always stand as a contrast when he gets on the field.

I've just about lost hope of Julio Jones getting anywhere close to his usual standards this year. Steve Sarkisian is still in over his head, even if the Falcons got by in this one. It was frustrating to see Justin Hardy's touchdown reception in the third quarter, with Hardy in trips out right while Jones was the solitary receiver to the left, decoying and drawing a double team. Just have Julio run the route you gave to Hardy. Imagine scheming open your best receiver instead of isolating them as a means to scheme open your worst receivers.

New England vs. Denver

I'm baffled that James White only saw 11 snaps in this. I thought for sure he would be a prominent part of the game plan – a screen pass target to deter Denver from blitzing too aggressively. That New England is badly beat up at receiver made it all the more certain, I thought. Instead it was Rex Burkhead who made the biggest pass-catching impact among New England runners. The Patriots exploited Denver's man coverage by using it as an opportunity to motion Burkhead out of the backfield and run routes against linebackers and safeties. I would expect this to be a matchup-specific blip in New England's approach, with White getting back in as a leading contributor going forward, but Burkhead has been quite convincing and should remain a mainstream fantasy option in PPR formats. In fact, I think you could argue that Burkhead is the top back to own in New England since Dion Lewis hasn't done much as a pass catcher. Lewis does appear unchallenged as the top pure runner in the group, however.

It sort of looked like Rob Gronkowski caught the ball on what would have been a touchdown catch in the second quarter but, even upon review, the play was called incomplete. Although he saw only two targets, you have to find it encouraging for Phillip Dorsett that he played 49 snaps. I'll like him as a sleeper against Oakland if Chris Hogan misses another game.

Brock Osweiler is bad, but Emmanuel Sanders was getting open regularly in this one, and Demaryius Thomas scored his seventh touchdown in nine games with Osweiler. Ugly as it will be, those two should be able to provide returns their owners have generally been accustomed to.