This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
New York Giants 
(+10) (-110) at Philadelphia Eagles 
Like moths to a flame, when the Giants are a road dog, I'm drawn to the game. Are we REALLY sure Philly is good enough to be a double-digit favorite? Outside of beating up on the truly dreadful teams in the league, I'm not finding much support for it. Let's not forget, the Giants schemed their way to a 13-7 win over these Eagles just 4 weeks ago, and games between these two teams are typically very close. Divisional rivals are so familiar with each other, and I'm a big fan of grabbing a bunch of points in those games, particularly when played in November and December. As of this writing, the only significant COVID-related news is Eagles HC Nick Sirianni's positive test. Mike Glennon/Jake Fromm and Saquon Barkley are settling in together, and the Giants defense has held things together for the most part. The G-Men have covered the last 4 in Philly…….make it 5.
Minnesota Vikings 
(+3.5) (-114) vs Los Angeles Rams 
With the hook, I can't ignore the value on the Vikings in this one. Dare I say, Captain Kirk Cousins has played at a near-elite level this year with an incredible 29/6 TD to INT ratio. He, Dalvin Cook, and Justin Jefferson have the Vikings in the thick of the NFC playoff race. MIN did get some tough news on Thursday when it was announced Cook was added to the COVID-19 list, however, that news may not be the end of the world. The Rams rush defense is stellar, and Alexander Mattison is one of the better backups in the league. Cousins, Jefferson, and Adam Thielen will look to attack the Rams through the air. This is also a tough spot for the Rams, who are coming off a week where their game was shifted late to Tuesday and must contend with a long trip to cold Minneapolis on a short week and an even longer trip to Baltimore next week. I like the home dog that is playing well and getting more than a FG. I also think points will be plentiful, so the over is worth a look as well.
New England Patriots 
(-1.5) (-114) vs Buffalo Bills 
You knew I couldn't go an entire week without the Patriots appearing! My belief in New England was solidified even in the loss last week as they were thoroughly outplayed, Mac Jones had his first rookie-like struggles, Damien Harris was out, and they STILL had a chance down the stretch. That should serve as a wake-up call for the Patriots who now welcome the Bills into Foxborough. Buffalo just doesn't match up well with the Pats. Last week confirmed the vulnerability of the New England rush defense, but Buffalo can't exploit it. And, as I've said all year, the Bills are bullies that pick on the weak, and I'm sure they are feeling good about themselves after kicking the hapless Carolina Panthers when they were down. Have I mentioned that the Pats can wrap up the AFC East with a win? Darth Hoodie and his team bounce back in a big way.
Other Bets
2-Team Teaser: Green Bay Packers 
(-6.5) and Tampa Bay Bucs (-6.5), Parlay (+185)
Every year around this time, it seems Green Bay is rounding into form, they welcome a team from outside the NFC North, and they dismantle them. Last year, Tennessee was taken to the woodshed to the tune of 40-14 and I can see a similar result playing out here. I don't entirely trust the Green Bay defense against good teams, but the Browns are not a good team. They have been derailed by COVID and bad QB play, making them entirely one-dimensional on offense. After weeks of facing pedestrian offenses, the Browns now take on a well-oiled machine with Aaron Rodgers driving. This could get ugly. In the other game, Tom Brady is off a loss and he gets Antonio Brown back. And Cam Newton and Sam Darnold are BOTH going to play? What a time to be alive! Tampa beat Carolina by 24 and 17 last year….the Bucs get right and roll on Sunday.
2-Team Teaser: Indianapolis Colts 
(+7.5) and Detroit Lions 
(+7.5), Parlay (+120)
My 2-team teasers have been so nice, I thought we'd do it twice this week. Two favorites in the first one across Saturday and Sunday, now we look at the dogs that are barking this week. Last week proved Indy is really, really good. With Carson Wentz managing games, Jonathan Taylor leading a nasty rushing attack, and a defense that loves to cause turnovers, the Colts are in every game they play. The Cards have played better on the road than at home and certainly have some issues as the offense is completely different without the threat of DeAndre Hopkins. We may not need any points to back the Colts, but we'll take 'em, just in case. And how about those Motor City Kitties? They continue to play hard for Dan Campbell and busted through with their biggest victory yet last week over the aforementioned Arizona Cardinals. Atlanta is not a good team and they are terrible at home. Their biggest margin of victory this year is 7. I like the Lions without the extra points, but I love them on the other side of 7.
AJ Dillon anytime TD (+135)
The Packers seem to sway back and forth between Aaron Jones games and AJ Dillon games. Both guys get a lot of touches, but Dillon is generally the guy by the goal line. Jones has been playing through a knee injury and was limited in Wednesday's practice, so it seems like this could be lining up to be an AJ Dillon game. Jones is -145 for the same prop, so there is tremendous value on a Dillon tuddy. Let the big boy eat!
PAST RESULTS
Last week: 3-3, -.24 units
Stuck in neutral again. Games were good, the rest was not. We had somewhat of a bad beat on Gaskin, who ripped off a 30-yarder late and finished with 54 rushing yards. And I won't be tugging on JT23's cape again anytime soon. The man cannot be stopped.
Overall: 14-10, +3.55 units
I wish all of you, your family, and your friends a very happy and healthy holiday season!
