This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
Buffalo Bills 
(-11.5) (-115) vs Carolina Panthers
Before I get into the game, I urge you all to be very patient and diligent with your action this week. The Omicron variant is causing chaos throughout the NFL with things changing by the hour. I'll do the best that I can with what we know right now, but make sure you know the full story before placing any wagers.
Hey look, I'm fading the woeful Panthers again this week. And why not? I've said before, this Buffalo team is a bunch of bullies that pick on the weak, and right now, there aren't many weaker than Carolina. Their QB situation is among the worst in the NFL, their star is always hurt, which all equals an offense that struggles to score points and a very tired defense. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs should have a field day, as should the Buffalo Defense.
Pittsburgh Steelers 
(-1) (-110) vs. Tennessee Titans
I believe that when you find something that works, particularly in the unpredictable world of the NFL, you stick with it when it makes sense. Like last week when the Titans and Jags provided an ugly and easy under, I'll once again be picking on the woeful Tennessee offense. Ryan Tannehill continues to show he has little left in the tank and while Julio Jones did come back last week, he's clearly not the Julio Jones from 2018. The Titans picked off Trevor Lawrence four times last week and still couldn't put the Jags to bed. This week, a rested and grumpy Steelers team will pose a much bigger challenge. After an embarrassing first-half performance in Minnesota, Big Ben and Steelers' offense woke up with an up-tempo scheme in the second half, falling just short at the gun (well done, Chase Claypool). The Titans opened as a 2-point favorite and bettors figured out quickly the wrong team was favored. With little COVID news surrounding this game, I think you can jump on the Steelers and the short line with confidence.
Cincinnati Bengals 
(+3) (-110) at Denver Broncos
It seems the public has lost faith in this Bengals squad (can you blame them?) but I have not. I still believe they are the most talented team in the AFC North and have the tools to win, they just need to find consistency. I don't understand the love for Denver in this game. To me, Teddy Bridgewater is clearly less than 100%, and now both Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III are dinged up. The Denver D is susceptible to the pass, so Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase should feast, and with Tee Higgins trending in the right direction, the aerial assault should be in full force. And I've yet to mention Joe Mixon, who is running extremely well. With the line now a full FG, I feel as though Cincy is a strong play as the more talented underdog.
Other Bets
2-Team Teaser of the Week: New England Patriots (+7.5) and Dallas Cowboys (-6.5), Parlay (+113)
My love for this Patriots team is well documented, but their game in Indy on Saturday will be their toughest test in weeks. The Colts' strength lies with their running Jonathan Taylor behind a nasty offensive line and stopping the run is New England's defensive weakness. However, we all know that Bill Belichick excels at taking away a team's strength, so this should be a classic to watch. I think this will be a methodical, limited possession game that stays within one score throughout. In the Dallas/New York tilt, I think we'll see the exact opposite. The Giants can't score and Dak Prescott needs a slump-buster. New York is terrible at home and the Cowboys have owned East Rutherford in recent years. If/when the 'Boys offense gets on track, the Giants can do very little to keep pace.
Jonathan Taylor under 94.5 rushing yards (-110)
How about a player prop that features someone sure to see the field? As I mentioned above, the Fighting Belichicks will do whatever it takes to limit Taylor and force Carson Wentz to beat them. And while it is a dangerous proposition to go against the NFL's hottest rusher, his weekly number is getting very high. New England has the defensive tools and talent to scheme against the strong Colts rushing attack and the Patriots also know they can't fall too far behind because they don't have an offense built to come back from a large deficit. If this game is as close as I think it will be, the Patriots will find a way to neutralize JT23 and keep him under this big number.
Myles Gaskin under 52.5 rushing yards (-114)
Gaskin was cleared from the COVID list and is now back at practice, but his playing time is a bit murky as the Dolphins face the woeful Jets. The Dolphins are highly motivated and still in the playoff hunt while the Jets can only hurt themselves by winning. I like that combination for a very vanilla, fast-paced game. Miami is also getting Salvon Ahmed back and Malcom Brown is trending in the right direction as well. Miami should coast to a relatively easy victory and should be able to do it without leaning on any one back as they try to keep all of them fresh and healthy for the stretch run. Gaskin has only gone over this total once in his last 6 games and in the game in which he went over, it took him 23 carries to get there. I don't see that volume happening this week.
PAST RESULTS
Last week: 3-3, +.01 units
Carolina is more broken than I thought, inexplicably giving Hubbard only 10 carries last week. And Jermar Jefferson never saw the field…..that was a sweet call by me. Still, dead even in a strange week….I'll take it.
Overall: 11-7, +3.79 units
