Exploiting the Matchups: Saints Won't Buc Trend

For many leagues Week 14 signals the start of the fantasy playoffs. For those that are still seven days away this week could amount to a play-in game for many others. So it's do-or-die time.

With the stakes raised every decision is critical. And the advice for making the right decisions remains exactly the same as last week. I'm approaching each and every one of my matchups with the same maxim: play for the highest floor. In a wildly unpredictable season littered with injuries we've seen scores swing dramatically. I'm 7-6 in a league in which my team is the highest scoring. The unpredictability has brought me to one simple conclusion: why take the risk? Why swing for the fences with a boom-or-bust option? This is it. I don't want to second-guess decisions, and I want to maximize my chances to advance at the same time. I'm playing guys who provide a comfortable, safe baseline. I'm aiming for volume. Give me touches, give me targets, give me tired right arms that can't stop throwing. Talent matters, sure. Extreme matchups do need to be given just credence. But I want above and beyond all else the players given the most opportunity to produce. Those are my starters. That I can take into the offseason with peace of mind if the chips don't fall my way. With that I wish all those in "must-wins" the best of luck. Put your best hand on the table and let the cards decide the rest.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit column. Upgrades are players you wouldn't consistently start (or who have consistently underachieved), while those downgraded generally are lineup mainstays with a bad opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE

Quarterback

Tyrod Taylor, BUF at PHI

Sure, this is the LeSean McCoy revenge game and the Bills likely will feed him, especially as hot as he's been lately. But Taylor is coming off a four-touchdown shellacking of a very good Texans defense. He should have his way with a Philly group that's allowed 14 total scores to opposing QBs in the last three weeks.

Jameis Winston, TB vs. NO

The two friendliest defenses to opposing quarterbacks are the Eagles and Saints. When he faced the Eagles three week ago at home, Winston torched them for five touchdowns. In their last five games, New Orleans has allowed Eli Manning, Marcus Mariota, Kirk Cousins and Cam Newton to combine for an insane 19 touchdowns and 1,376 yards, with the worst individual performance being Cousins' 324 and four-touchdown stat line. With 35 allowed already, the Saints defense is on pace to demolish the NFL's ignominious record of 40 touchdown passes given up in a season.

Ryan Tannehill, MIA vs. NYG

Tannehill quietly has at least 300 yards or multiple touchdowns in 10-of-12 games this season, and he's about to make it 11 facing a Giants defense that's allowed 239 more passing yards than the next worst defense against the throw. With rookie DeVante Parker flashing his first-round talent, New York won't slow Miami in the Florida sunshine.

Running Back

Shaun Draughn, SF at CLE

The Browns have allowed at least 80 total yards to an opposing running back in all but one game this year. Draughn has at least 77 total yards in all four of his starts as a Niner. That math seems pretty self-explanatory.

Eddie Lacy, GB vs. DAL

The Cowboys really haven't been tough versus running backs, but they haven't been terrible either. In fact, they haven't been blasted by a tailback since former Dallas thoroughbred DeMarco Murray piled up 161 total yards and a TD against them in Week 9. So why Lacy? Because I'm buying the curfew violation versus Detroit. Beyond that, I'm buying his consecutive 100-yard rushing efforts prior to that. He's healthy. He's hard to tackle. He HAS to be motivated.

James White, NE at HOU

The Texans have allowed three consecutive running backs to total at least 89 yards and only one had less than 45 yards receiving. In that same timeframe, White has 152 receiving yards on 14 catches and three total touchdowns. He saw 13 targets last week and was easily the team's best receiving option as he's taken over the Dion Lewis satellite back role.

Wide Receiver

Doug Baldwin, SEA at BAL

OK, so it's finally time we start treating a Seahawks receiver like a top-20 fantasy commodity. Russell Wilson has been on fire recently, and a big reason why has been the stellar play of Baldwin, who has an uncanny sense for soft spots in coverage and a great rapport with his scramble-happy QB. Baldwin has killed it for 433 yards and six touchdowns in the last four games, and now gets to feast on a Ravens D that's allowed 19 scores to wideouts.

Vincent Jackson, TB vs. NO

Jackson has one touchdown in his last five appearances. The Saints defense has allowed 12 TDs to wideouts in that same stretch. For a receiver trending up after games of 76 and 87 yards the last two weeks, this could be an explosive performance for Jackson.

DeVante Parker, MIA vs. NYG

Only three teams have allowed more than the 190.8 yards per game the Giants allow to wide receivers, and all of those can't go to Jarvis Landry. Finally healthy and starting, the Dolphins' 6-foot-3, 218, first-round draft pick is flashing his major upside. Parker has at least 63 yards and a touchdown in consecutive games with 15 targets over that span, and the opportunities only figure to keep coming for one of Miami's most physically gifted skill players.

Tight End

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB vs. NO

Seferian-Jenkins returned to action last week for the first time since suffering a shoulder injury in the first quarter of a Week 2 matchup with the Saints. Although he only played 21 snaps in his return to the field, it was encouraging to see him receive six targets. His revenge will be had this Sunday when he faces a New Orleans defense that has allowed the most yards and fantasy points to tight ends.

Coby Fleener, IND at JAC

In their last four games the Jaguars have allowed 431 yards and six touchdowns to tight ends. Fleener, who led the Colts with eight targets last week, posted a season-high nine catches, 83 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville in their first meeting, which also happened to be with Matt Hasselbeck under center.

DOWNGRADE

Quarterback

Derek Carr, OAK at DEN

Carr has failed to throw for multiple scores in just two of 11 full games this year. One of those came against a stifling Broncos defense in Week 5, you know, back when Amari Cooper was consistently playing at a high level. Coming off his second multi-interception game in his last four, Carr will continue his struggles in the thin Denver air against the an elite secondary that's allowed 11 TDs in 12 games.

Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. DAL

Maybe the Hail Mary will provide just the momentum the Packers offense needs as the season's fourth quarter begins. But maybe, just maybe, it was as lucky as it looked. And maybe luck won't be good enough for Rodgers against a Dallas defense that's allowed 12 passing scores this season. After all, it's not like those Cowboys have played the likes of Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning (twice) and Cam Newton. Oh, wait ...

Drew Brees, NO at TB

I was wrong to downgrade Brees last week, underestimating just how sensational he can be in his comfy dome. I'm doubling down, however, since his play on the road can be a big concern. In five games this season away from home Brees has just six touchdown passes and as many picks, with three games of 255 yards or less.

Running Back

Latavius Murray, OAK at DEN

Denver is tied for the fewest yards per carry allowed (3.5) and has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season. Murray produced his worst fantasy day this year versus them in Week 5 when he totaled 57 yards on 16 touches, and with the Broncos poised to claim the No. 1 seed in the AFC he's again set up to struggle.

Todd Gurley, STL vs. DET

The Lions have allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the league. There's only one problem, however. Gurley has precisely ZERO help getting to the end zone. After reeling off six TDs in five games he's failed to do much of anything the last two weeks, totaling just 60 yards on 18 carries. The Lions, meanwhile, have not allowed more than 30 rushing yards to a tailback in three consecutive games.

Jeremy Hill, CIN vs. PIT

Hill has at least 100 total yards or a touchdown in three straight games. Now he must face a Pittsburgh defense that's allowed just two 100-yard rushers all season and only four scores to running backs. He tallied 68 yards in the first clash with the Steelers in Week 8 and is set up to underwhelm again.

Wide Receiver

Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, OAK at DEN

Next up to fail against the Broncos' secondary, Cooper and Crabtree were each held to less than 55 yards in their first meeting with Denver in Week 5 and nothing has changed since about how stingy the best defense in football is to wideouts. The Broncos have allowed 242 fewer yards to the position than any defense in the league and have given up just one touchdown to a wide receiver this year.

Dez Bryant, DAL at GB

In six games since returning from his broken foot Bryant has one 100-yard effort and five games of less than 63 yards. In those five games, he's caught just 16 of 42 targets for a grand total of 190 yards. Matt Cassel, Frozen Tundra, playoff implications, a Packers defense that's given up only eight TDs to wideouts and is getting healthier by the day. Bryant will be looking for revenge from last year's playoff catch/non-catch moment, but he won't get it.

DeSean Jackson, WAS at CHI

Only four defenses have given up fewer yards to wide receivers than the 135.9 per game the Bears have allowed. Jackson has managed at least 65 yards and a touchdown in three straight games, but he remains reliant on the deep ball. In the stiff Chicago wind, his streak will be in serious jeopardy.

Tight End

Gary Barnidge, CLE vs. SF

Barnidge has totaled only 117 yards in the three games Johnny Manziel has started. Now he must pair with the inconsistent QB to face a 49ers defense that's allowed the third-fewest yards per game to tight ends (41.6 per contest). Good luck.