Exploiting the Matchups: NFL Conference Championship Games

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles - 3:00 ET

Betting Odds

Over/Under: 47.5  /  Line: Eagles -6.0

Implied Totals: Commanders (20.75) at Eagles (26.75)

Looking back to Sunday evening, odds opened at 48.5 or 48.0 for the over/under, with the Eagles as either 4.5 or 5-point favorites most places. The numbers quickly moved to 47.5 and -5.5 or -6.0, and have stayed there throughout the week.

These teams already played twice, of course, starting with a 26-18 Eagles victory Week 11 in Philadelphia. It was a close, low-scoring game throughout, until the final five minutes when Saquon Barkley had TD runs of 23 and 39 yards within a span of 30 seconds (sandwiched around an INT by S Reed Blankenship). TE Zach Ertz then scored a TD and two-point conversion with 28 seconds remaining, but Philadelphia recovered the onsides kick to end any hope of a miracle comeback. 

QB Jayden Daniels threw for just 6.0 YPA, his second worst mark in a full game this season, and WR Terry McLaurin finished with one catch for 10 yards on two targets. Ertz (6-47-1) and RB Austin Ekeler (8-89-0) were the only Commanders with more than two catches or 17 receiving yards, although RB Brian Robinson added 16-63-1 on the ground. For Philadelphia, Barkley's 26-146-2 rushing line was complemented by a 43-yard reception, and then solid games from WR A.J. Brown (5-65-0 on eight targets) and TE Dallas Goedert (5-61-0 on five targets). The Eagles moved the ball fine for most of the night, with their first seven drives yielding two field goals, two missed field goals and three punts, before their final three drives each resulted in TDs. Washington had a much tougher time gaining yards but held a 7-0 lead for much of the first half on the strength of a bad punt and a couple big plays.

The second meeting between these teams, Week 16 at Washington, was one of the most memorable games of the regular season despite QB Jalen Hurts exiting in the first quarter with a concussion. The Eagles were leading 7-0 and deep in Washington territory at the time of Hurts' injury, benefiting from a Robinson fumble and another big day for Barkley. Daniels threw a pair of interceptions in the game, but he also had 258 passing yards, five passing TDs and 81 rushing yards, leading the Commanders to a 36-33, last-second victory despite Barkley putting up 29-150-2 and Brown adding 8-97-1 on 15 targets (13 of those coming from backup QB Kenny Pickett).

Weather

The forecast for Sunday in Philadelphia looks mild, with temperatures in the mid-to-high 30s, winds around 10 mph and minimal probability of precipitation. It may be cold enough to slightly limit FG distances, but weather otherwise shouldn't be a factor for the NFC Championship Game.

Injuries

RG Sam Cosmi (ACL) - OUT

DT Daron Payne (knee/finger) - QUESTIONABLE

Cosmi is arguably Washington's best blocker and suffered an ACL tear last week. Payne hasn't lived up to his reputation the past couple seasons, but it's not like the Commanders have anyone better coming off the bench. Payne didn't practice at all this week, suggesting he's in serious danger of missing Sunday's game.

C Cam Jurgens (back) - QUESTIONABLE

Jurgens is the only Eagle listed with a game designation, but Hurts reportedly will use a brace over his left knee after suffering an injury (and playing through it) in Sunday's win over the Rams. Hurts didn't have any rush attempts after he got hurt and appeared less mobile, but the Eagles did surprisingly call a play-action rollout for him late in the fourth quarter when they probably should've just handed the ball to Barkley (Hurts was sacked, but more so because there was a free rusher coming right at him than anything to do with his injury). All that being said, Hurts was a full practice participant Thursday and Friday, and he's still a decent bet to score a tush-push TD even if he's otherwise less mobile than usual.

Jurgens didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday but returned Friday as a limited participant, giving him a decent shot to play Sunday. If not, the Eagles have an experienced backup center in Nick Gates, who made 29 starts in four years with the Giants and 10 starts last year for the Commanders. Gates may not be good, but he's probably not a total disaster and won't be up against any dominant interior defensive linemen this weekend.

Strengths/Weaknesses

Commanders Greatest Strength(s): QB Jayden Daniels & OC Kliff Kingsbury

I was no fan of Kliff Kingsbury's coming into the season -- a skepticism that was maintained when Washington threw an enormous quantity of screen passes Weeks 1 and 2. But then the training wheels came off Week 3 at Cincinnati, and there's been no reason to put them back on ever since, with Daniels proving himself as a top-10 QB right out of the gate. He now has a top-five argument, with his 16 drives in the playoffs producing seven TDs, five field-goal attempts, three turnovers on downs (all in opponent territory), one punt and zero turnovers.

That's an incredible degree of sustained success over the course of two playoff games, even against offense-driven opponents like Detroit and Tampa Bay. And that's on top of a regular season in which Daniels finished Top 10 for basically every efficiency stat besides sack rate. Kingsbury figured out a perfect blend of short passes, deep shots, QB runs to the outside and RB carries up the middle, with many of the plays looking similar right after the snap and thus forcing opponents to defend three or four concepts for the first second or two of a play. Daniels and Kingsbury working together have made good linebackers look bad, and bad linebackers look... pretty much hopeless.

Commanders Greatest Weakness(es): Run Defense

The Commanders have legit playmakers in LBs Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu, but their defensive line and cornerbacks both easily grade out as the worst among the four remaining teams. In fact, Washington's run defense is the most glaring weakness that exists among the championship weekend participants, having finished bottom 10 in most categories during the regular season (including 30th in YPC allowed to running backs - 4.9). 

That might sound like a death sentence given the matchup, but keep in mind that the Commanders won the past two weeks while giving up 14-105-2 on the ground to Jahmyr Gibbs and 17-77-0 to Bucky Irving. Wagner and Luvu can shoot gaps to make big plays that take the opponent off schedule to force passing situations, and Washington's offense is capable of building leads that have the same impact of forcing pass plays. That said, there's risk of the game getting away from them given the huge talent gap between Philadelphia's offensive line and Washington's defensive line -- a problem compounded by Barkley's presence.

Eagles Greatest Strength(s): Rush Offense / Pass Defense

Barkley is having one of the best seasons ever by a running back, combining his A+ tools with the benefit of an elite offensive line and a rushing threat at QB. It's the perfect storm for RB production, and the breakaway runs seem to have become a matter of 'when' rather than 'if'.

Philadelphia's pass defense was nearly as dominant as Barkley after the first month of the season, finishing Top 5 in basically every efficiency metric despite getting off to a slow-ish start in September. Quinyon Mitchell, Darius Slay and Cooper DeJean may be the best cornerback trio in the league, and the Eagles also have gotten strong safety play from Reed Blankenship and a rejuvenated C.J. Gardner-Johnson. As efficient as Washington's passing game has been, it makes sense to stay balanced against the Eagles unless a large deficit forces the matter.

Eagles Greatest Weakness(es): Passing Offense

This has been an on-and-off thing in Philadelphia for years now, with Jalen Hurts and Co. producing no shortage of hyper-efficient games but then also struggling for a long stretch at least once every year. Things looked to have gotten back on track when Hurts threw for 290 yards in a 27-13 win over the Steelers in Week 15 (and made snappy/defiant comments to the media afterwards), but he then suffered a concussion in the first quarter of the Week 16 loss at Washington and hasn't done much since returning for the playoffs. Hurts attempted just 11 throws 10-plus yards downfield over the past two weeks, completing five of them for 90 yards and a TD.

Divisional Round Advanced Box Scores

Matchup Upgrades

RB Saquon Barkley

WR DeVonta Smith

Barkley had 348 yards and two TDs in two previous matchups with Washington. Smith had just 80 yards and no TDs on 14 targets, but he's got the best matchup among Commanders pass catchers due to spending about half his time in the slot, where CB Noah Igbinoghene has been a liability for Washington much of the year. I'd probably still bet on a rebound game for AJB rather than Smith, but it's the latter who has the relative matchup advantage.

Matchup Downgrades

Commanders Offense (everyone)

The Eagles lost LB Nakobe Dean to patellar tendon tear in the wild-card round, potentially creating a weakness on the league's best defense. Dean wasn't one of their best players, however, and replacement Oren Burks is an experienced veteran with 4.59 speed (or at least that's what he ran back in 2018 before the Packers took him in the third round). QB Matthew Stafford held up pretty well against the Eagles last week, but the two biggest plays (a 48-yard catch by Demarcus Robinson and a 37-yarder by Puka Nacua) both required incredible catches in tight coverage. You might not know it from the box score, but the Rams' WRs struggled to get open against the league's best secondary.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs - 6:30 ET

Betting Odds

Over/Under: 48.5  /  Line: Chiefs - 2.5

Implied Totals: Bills (23.0) at Chiefs (25.5)

Odds opened with the over/under slightly higher (49.0 or 49.5) and slightly more towards the Bills (+0.5/1/1.5). Most books now have the Chiefs favored by 2.0 or 2.5, which is consistent with the teams being viewed as exactly even but Kansas City having home-field advantage and an extra day of rest. 

The Bills previously hosted the Chiefs in Week 11 and emerged with a 30-21 victory, highlighted by consecutive, long TD drives in the second half (10 plays for 83 yards, then 12 plays for 70 yards). The Chiefs had a shot to get the ball back down by two points with two and a half minutes and two timeouts remaining, but QB Josh Allen memorably scored a 26-yard TD on a 4th-and-2 carry instead. That play handed the Kansas City starters their only loss of the season while making Allen an MVP favorite (it's not clear whether he'll actually win the award, but if he doesn't, it's only because of how well Lamar Jackson played, not because Allen isn't fully deserving).

Weather

The forecast for Kansas City looks a bit colder than Philadelphia, but it's basically the same deal, with no expectation of precipitation or heavy wind. Passing games shouldn't be impacted, and kickers will only lose maybe five yards of range relative to their warm-weather abilities.

Injuries

S Taylor Rapp (hip) - OUT

CB Christian Benford (concussion) - QUESTIONABLE

The Chiefs don't have any players listed on the injury report, while Buffalo has one starting DB ruled out and another listed as questionable. Benford is the Bills' top cornerback, and while he may not have great name recognition among casual fans, it'll be a big loss for the team if he can't play. He missed practice Friday, but it reportedly was for personal reasons rather than a setback with his concussion symptoms. Benford was a limited practice participant Wednesday and Thursday, and the Bills should know by Saturday evening if he'll be able to play. 

Strengths/Weaknesses

Bills Greatest Strength(s): QB Josh Allen / Rushing Offense

Buffalo finished the regular season ninth in both rushing and passing yards, ranking even higher than that for most efficiency metrics. Their offensive line may not have a big-name superstar, but it also doesn't have a weak link, and consistently seems to be more than the sum of its parts. OC Joe Brady spent the past year and a half building a powerful run game around Allen, who had spent the previous few seasons carrying nearly the entire burden for Buffalo's offense. The problem for opponents is that Allen remains perfectly capable of doing that but usually doesn't need to, kind of like Baltimore's Lamar Jackson, only with a better track record in the playoffs. The Bills tend to stay on schedule and excel at converting short-yardage situations and goal-line opportunities, which lends to a lot of long drives that make opposing defenders (and fans) want to pull out their eyes.

Bills Greatest Weakness(es): Mediocre Defensive Personnel

This might sound like an insult but really isn't. The Bills have average or above-average starters at nearly every position on both sides of the ball, and they only have four players on injury lists (none starters). While run defense has been oft-mentioned as a weakness, Buffalo has held up fine in that regard this season when not facing the Ravens. A Super Bowl matchup with Philadelphia would come with risk of getting bullied, but this weekend's matchup against a mediocre KC running game doesn't carry the same risk. Really, Buffalo's lone "weakness" is a lack of superstars besides Josh Allen, and then maybe the defensive backfield if Benford isn't able to play.

Chiefs Greatest Strength(s): QB Patrick Mahomes / HC Andy Reid

The Chiefs are a well-balanced team that finished the regular season just 15th in points (22.6 per game) and 16th in yards, but come playoff time it's still Mahomes and Reid and Travis Kelce that worry opponents most, even if the defense has been statistically superior to the offense for two years now. 

Chiefs Greatest Weakness(es): LG Mike Caliendo & RT Jawaan Taylor

The Chiefs fixed their season-long problem at left tackle in mid-December when they kicked star left guard Joe Thuney out to the edge. Thuney gave up a sack and three pressures last week, but that was against Houston's formidable edge-rushing duo of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson. Thuney otherwise has held up fine at left tackle, whereas his replacement at left guard (Caliendo) has largely struggled, as might be expected of a 2022 UDFA who had played 40 career snaps before Week 15. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor is far more experienced, but he's also a weak point for the Chiefs, having given up seven sacks and 17 penalties during the regular season. Only 10 linemen allowed more sacks, and only two were charged with more penalties. The Bills may not have one truly dominant defensive linemen, but DT Ed Oliver and edge rushers Von Miller and Greg Rosseau are plenty good enough to beat up on Caliendo and Taylor when given one-on-one opportunities.

Divisional Round Advanced Box Scores

Matchup Upgrades

None

Neither defense has a clear weakness to exploit. Someone will have a big game, of course, but it's hard to point out any one player who has a better-than-average matchup here. The Chiefs under DC Steve Spagnuolo have a strong track record of taking away opponents' top weapons, and the Bills under Sean McDermott have a long history of pushing targets away from perimeter receivers and toward RBs and TEs. That could work out well for Travis Kelce and Noah Gray, at least in terms of volume. Buffalo allowed just 6.68 yards per target to tight ends this season, ninth best in the league. Gray scored two of Kansas City's three TDs in the first matchup between these squads, putting up 4-23-2 on a team-high-tying five targets, while Kelce Managed just two catches for eight yards on four targets.

Matchup Downgrades

WR Marquise Brown

Buffalo's defense isn't quite what it was a few years ago, but the excellent, long-term track record of limiting downfield/perimeter production still stands. That's bad news for Brown, but less so for Xavier Worthy, who moves around the formation more and had a 4-61-1 receiving line against the Bills in Week 11.