This article is part of our Draftster NFL series.
We move on to Week 15 in the NFL season and Draftster continues into Week 10 of their Single Entry Championship. The Championship already has 27 qualifiers for their final later this month and is running buy-ins this week at $5, $10 and $20. Please note the following rankings do not include Thursday's matchup between Arizona and St. Louis.
Quarterback
1. Andrew Luck (IND) vs. HOU - $9,900
2. Drew Brees (NO) at CHI - $9,600
3. Aaron Rodgers (GB) at BUF - $8,200
4. Matthew Stafford (DET) vs. MIN - $6,700
5. Tom Brady (NE) vs. MIA - $ 7,100
6. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) at ATL - $8,500
7. Peyton Manning (DEN) at SD - $8,300
8. Mark Sanchez (PHI) vs. DAL - $6,700
9. Jay Cutler (CHI) vs. NO - $7,200
10. Matt Ryan (ATL) vs. PIT - $9,100
11. Philip Rivers (SD) vs. DEN - $6,700
12. Tony Romo (DAL) at PHI - $6,600
Drew Brees (NO) at CHI - $9,600
The Saints entered Week 14 as 9.5-point home favorites against Carolina and left being embarrassed by 31 points. Brees finished Week 14 with 235 yards passing with one touchdown and one pick. Prior to his Week 14 letdown, Brees had nine touchdowns over his previous three games, including a 420-yard effort against Baltimore. Next up for Brees and the Saints is a Chicago team that ranks 30th in the league against the pass, allowing 265.5 yards a game. Look for Brees to straighten his path as the Saints are still alive in the NFC South hunt.
Matthew Stafford (DET) vs. MIN - $6,700
Since the return of lead wide receiver Calvin Johnson, Stafford's completion percentage has jumped nearly 22 points and has averaged 351 yards a week in his last two weeks. Last week against Tampa Bay, Stafford passed for 311 yards and three touchdowns, finding his top target Johnson eight times for 158 yards. Stafford's home splits are glaring compared to his road, completing 14 percent more passes at home and an average of 50 more yards. The Vikings pass defense is greatly improved, but nobody can stop Calvin Johnson and it appears like Stafford is locked in.
Mark Sanchez (PHI) vs. DAL - $6,700
Sanchez is coming off of a rough Week 14 against Seattle, in which he failed to top 100 yards, though tossing two touchdown passes. The Eagles just faced the Cowboys back in Week 13 on Thanksgiving day, a game where Sanchez finished 217 and a touchdown through the air and a touchdown on the ground. This matchup between the Eagles and Cowboys will go a long way in determining the NFC East champ as both teams come in at 9-4. Expect the Eagles offense to be on point at home in a game that has a Vegas total of 55.5.
Running Back
1. Le'Veon Bell (PIT) at ATL - $10,200
2. DeMarco Murray (DAL) at PHI - $9,500
3. Matt Forte (CHI) vs. NO - $9,000
4. Jamaal Charles (KC) vs. OAK - $9,800 (P - Knee)
5. Arian Foster (HOU) at IND - $9,100
6. C.J. Anderson (DEN) at SD - $7,200
7. Marshawn Lynch (SEA) vs. SF - $7,000
8. Justin Forsett (BAL) vs. JAX - $7,300
9. Mark Ingram (NO) at CHI - $5,700
10. LeSean McCoy (PHI) vs. DAL - $6,300
11. Eddie Lacy (GB) at BUF - $6,700
12. Alfred Morris (WAS) at NYG - $5,800
Le'Veon Bell (PIT) at ATL - $10,200
Let me keep this one as simple as possible. Le'Veon Bell has topped 200 all-purpose yards in three straight weeks and gets to face the league's worst defense that allows 410 yards total per game. It's the perfect storm. Bell is an absolute workhorse, touching the ball nearly 35 times per game. With nobody behind him healthy on the depth chart, Bell will still be in line for all the touches he can handle. He comes in at a price of more than $10,000 but for 35-40 fantasy points it is hard to say he won't be worth it.
Justin Forsett (BAL) vs. JAX - $7,300
Another "perfect storm" play is Ravens running back Justin Forsett. Forsett has only failed to reach double digits fantasy points once this season and is averaging 23.75 fantasy points over his last four weeks. The Ravens face the Jaguars this week, a team that ranks 28th in the NFL against the rush, allowing 132 yards a game. Vegas has the Ravens as a 13.5-point favorite, so the ball should be in Forsett's hands a lot down the stretch.
Mark Ingram (NO) at CHI - $5,700
Ingram is coming off of one of his worst weeks in 2014, but that lies much more in the fact that the Saints had to abandon the run game early due to the score. It didn't help Ingram much that he fumbled early in the game, limiting his touches the rest of the way. Ingram has been one of the pleasant surprises of 2014, becoming the lead back for the Saints since coming back healthy in Week 8 against Green Bay. It might be a blessing in disguise that Ingram had a bad game last week as his price dropped significantly for a favorable matchup against a Bears rush defense that is ranked near the middle.
Wide Receivers
1. Antonio Brown (PIT) at ATL - $9,800
2. Jordy Nelson (GB) at BUF - $7,400
3. Calvin Johnson (DET) vs. MIN - $9,700
4. Alshon Jeffery (CHI) vs. NO - $8,400
5. Dez Bryant (DAL) at PHI - $7,700
6. Demaryius Thomas (DEN) at SD - $8,300
7. Josh Gordon (CLE) vs. CIN - $6,400
8. Odell Beckham (NYG) vs. WAS - $9,300
9. T.Y. Hilton (IND) vs. HOU - $9,000
10. Randall Cobb (GB) at BUF - $7,100
11. Jeremy Maclin (PHI) vs. DAL - $6,900
12. Mike Evans (TB) at CAR - $6,900
*Julio Jones (ATL) vs. PIT - $9,600 (Q - Hip)
Jordy Nelson (GB) at BUF - $7,400
It always comes to a surprise to me when I see a player put up 30 fantasy points only to see their price drop. That's the case this week for Packers wide receiver Jordy Nelson. After an eight-reception, 146-yard, two-touchdown performance, Nelson is $500 cheaper than his Week 14 price of $7,900. The Packers face the Bills this week in Buffalo, a matchup that may force quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to pass a bit more due to a strong rush defense. Take advantage of the down market.
Alshon Jeffery (CHI) vs. NO - $8,400
With Brandon Marshall out the rest of the season with a rib injury, Jeffery will move into the No. 1 role in Chicago. Over Jeffery's last four contests he has caught five touchdown passes, averaging seven receptions and 80 yards a game. Brandon Marshall was seeing double digits in targets weekly and those will now need to be distributed among the rest of the offense. Next up for the Bears is a Saints defense that ranks 29th against the pass and 31st in total defense.
*Julio Jones (ATL) vs. PIT - $9,600 (Q - Hip)
I am unable to rank Julio Jones this week due to lingering questions about his hip. The Falcons have stayed pretty hush-hush on the severity and not much is known. What I do know is Jones is coming off of a 11-reception, 259-yard game against Green Bay. If Jones is able to go on Sunday he is an elite option and would rank in my top-5 plays of the week. His price is certainly inflated due to his last game, but with some value options out there this week it may be a play worth paying up for.
Tight End
1. Rob Gronkowski (NE) vs. MIA - $7,200
2. Martellus Bennett (CHI) vs. NO - $7,000 (P - Back)
3. Jimmy Graham (NO) at CHI - $6,900
4. Coby Fleener (IND) vs. HOU - $4,700
5. Antonio Gates (SD) vs. DEN - $5,600
6. Greg Olsen (CAR) vs. TB - $6,300
7. Travis Kelce (KC) vs. OAK - $4,500
8. Jordan Reed (WAS) at NYG - $5,100
*Julius Thomas (DEN) at SD - $5,300 (Q - Ankle)
Martellus Bennett (CHI) vs. NO - $7,000 (P - Back)
As mentioned previously with Jeffery, the absence of Brandon Marshall will open double-digit targets to be distributed throughout the rest of the offense. Tight end has been a fickle position all year, but this play seems to be near a sure thing. His price has risen to the likes of a Gronkowski or Graham, but the Bears offense is something you will want exposure to this week.
Coby Fleener (IND) vs. HOU - $4,700
If you are looking to save money on a tight end, but still have strong upside, then Coby Fleener is once again the play this week. His price hasn't risen much over the weeks even after averaging five receptions for 88 yards over his last four games.
*Julius Thomas (DEN) at SD - $5,300 (Q - Ankle)
Much like Julio Jones, I am unable to rank Julius Thomas due to lingering injury concerns. Thomas was active for last Sunday's game against the Bills but never made it onto the field, as he was still recovering from an ankle injury. Thomas hopes to play this week, yet no report has yet to confirm that. Peyton Manning is coming off of back-to-back poor weeks and could use one of his top play makers back on the field.
Kicker
1. Stephen Gostkowski (NE) vs. MIA - $4,200
2. Adam Vinatieri (IND) vs. HOU - $3,800
3. Dan Bailey (DAL) at PHI - $3,800
4. Mason Crosby (GB) vs. ATL - $3,600
Kicker selection is picked week to week based on the highest over/under totals. Originally, you would want to target the cheapest kicker in a high-scoring game. Lately, however, Draftster has evened out kicker prices where it becomes increasingly more difficult to pick against the top, most consistent kickers in the league. That said, don't be surprised to see Gostkowski, Vinatieri and Bailey ranked near the top weekly.
Defense
1. Seattle (vs. San Francisco) - $3,700
2. Baltimore (vs. Jacksonville) - $4,200
3. Kansas City (vs. Oakland) - $3,900
4. Detroit (vs. Minnesota) - $3,800
I'm sticking to a popular theme for defenses this year and that is to match them up against Jacksonville or Oakland.
Salary Saver Plays
QB: Derek Anderson ($3,000 - Monitor Cam Newton's status)
RB: Terrance West ($3,500), Lamar Miller ($4,000)
WR: Harry Douglas ($3,400 - Dependant on Julio Jones' status), Andre Johnson ($3,100)
TE: Zach Ertz ($3,100)
Last Week's Lineup
QB: Brian Hoyer (3.90)
RB: Eddie Lacy (27.60)
RB: Marshawn Lynch (21.30)
WR: Josh Gordon (3.50)
WR: Calvin Johnson (32.80)
TE: Coby Fleener (10.60)
FLEX: Mark Ingram (6.60)
K: Connor Barth (8.00)
D: San Francisco (1.00)
TOTAL: 115.30
Another week of chasing a minimum-price quarterback crushed my lineup, as Brian Hoyer-to-Josh Gordon didn't happen, at all. I was big on Gordon at his price and figured if Hoyer wanted to keep his job in Cleveland he was going to look to him early and often. However, what we didn't know, is the Browns coaching staff had plans to limits Gordon's snaps all along. It almost makes me take a conspiracy standpoint in the fact that the Browns wanted Brian Hoyer to fail, but I digress.
My running backs performed to their value, as Lacy and Lynch both topped 20 fantasy points. My other running back that I started in my flex, Mark Ingram, had a less than stellar week, most in part to the Saints getting blown out. My mindset was that the Saints would be the team blowing out the Panthers and Ingram would get a lot of the end of the game ground work. This obviously was not the case.
Like I previously touched on, Josh Gordon tanked as my No. 2 receiver, my No. 1, Calvin Johnson, performed over value, topping 32 fantasy points. His matchup and price was just too good to pass up.
I stayed cheap at tight end and got a moderate game out of Coby Fleener. I will probably return to this well this week.
Week 14 marked my worst week on Draftster, a perfect example of when risks go wrong.
