DraftKings NFL: Week 5 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

The first thing that stands out about Sunday's slate is that we only have 10 games to choose from due to byes. The second is that when you factor in popularity, none necessarily stand out as great options to stack. Rather than force it, I'll probably stick to smaller stacks and worry less about correlation than normal. It's still important but not as much as leverage is, especially on smaller slates like this one where ownership will condense more. It will be paramount to fade some of that chalk and look for ways to differentiate. Whether that be with specific players or by using a unique type of construction. Hopefully, you come away with a few good ideas from this article. Good Luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB De'Von Achane vs. NYG ($6,100)

I'll admit some trepidation about spending $6K on a "backup" running back. First consider the Achane outsnapped Raheem Mostert 38-29 last week against the Bills. Second, consider that Achance has six touchdowns and 84 fantasy points in his last two games. Those are eye-popping numbers for a player who's looked explosive in both the running and passing games. Now he gets a favorable matchup against the Giants. That said, there are other good RB options in this range. David Montgomery ($6,600) is coming off 34 touches, 141 yards and three scores. Joe Mixon ($6,400) gets a soft matchup against the Cardinals and should get a usage bump if Tee Higgins is out. I chose to highlight Achance because he's cheaper and plays for the better offense but they're all solid options. 

• WR Marquise Brown vs. CIN ($5,000)

First, it has to be said that Joshua Dobbs looks like a serviceable QB who doesn't kill the value of his pass-catchers. Brown is underpriced for a No. 1 WR who's drawn 10 targets in two of his last three games. He's scored 15-plus fantasy points in three of four games and that would do just fine for $5K. He's solid value but far from a must when you consider there is other value options for cheaper. Tyler Boyd ($4,500) would project well if Tee Higgins ends up getting ruled out. Wan'Dale Robinson ($3,000) is minimum priced and impressed in his first two games back from injury. I wouldn't be opposed to rostering two of these three in cash games depending on how things shake out. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Jalen Hurts at LAR ($8,000)

QB Anthony Richardson vs. TEN ($7,000)

QB Daniel Jones at MIA ($5,800)

QB Joshua Dobbs vs. CIN ($5,200)

QB Zach Wilson at DEN ($4,900)

RB Bijan Robinson vs. HOU ($7,700)

RB David Montgomery vs. CAR ($6,600)

RB Joe Mixon at ARI ($6,400)

RB Alvin Kamara at NE ($6,300)

RB De'Von Achane vs. NYG ($6,100)

RB James Conner vs. CIN ($5,800)

RB Isiah Pacheco at MIN ($5,700)

RB Breece Hall at DEN ($5,400)

WR Justin Jefferson vs. KC ($9,400)

WR Tyreek Hill vs. NYG ($9,000)

WR Ja'Marr Chase at ARI ($7,900)

WR Garrett Wilson at DEN ($6,000)

WR DeAndre Hopkins at IND ($5,700)

WR Marquise Brown at CIN ($5,000)

WR Tyler Boyd at ARI ($4,500)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson at MIA ($3,000)

TE Zach Ertz vs. CIN ($3,500)

WR Chigoziem Okonkwo at IND ($3,100)

D/ST Tennessee Titans at IND ($2,400)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

New York Giants (17.5) at Miami Dolphins (30)

This section is going to be slightly different this week because I don't think any of the 10 games stand out as great options to stack and I don't want to recommend anything that I'm not seriously considering myself. I thought about highlighting the Chiefs-Vikings matchup as it has the highest implied total and will be relatively popular. However, the key players are too expensive and there really isn't enough value to make it work. I do plan on correlating Justin Jefferson ($9,400) and Isiah Pacheco ($5,700), who's coming off career highs in both rushing and receiving yards last week. The Eagles-Rams matchup has the second-highest total but presents similar difficulties when trying to stack. You might be able to stomach spending $16K for Jalen Hurts ($8,000) and A.J. Brown ($8,000) but on the Rams side, the likely return of Cooper Kupp ($8,600) complicates matters as it would make Puka Nacua ($7,700) seem overpriced. Kyren Williams ($6,700) is more expensive now too and in general I don't usually roster underdog RBs against Philly's stout front seven. Again, I don't mind having a couple players from these games, but usually I prefer to stack four/five players and that seems like a stretch in these spots. 

DOLPHINS

This leads me to Miami, who have the most explosive offense in the league and the highest implied total (30) of the week to show for it. De'Von Achane ($6,100) has been in the optimal lineup in consecutive weeks after six TDs and 84 fantasy points in that span. He outsnapped Raheem Mostert ($6,200) 38-29 last week. We know Tyreek Hill ($9,000) has as high a ceiling as any player in the league and has proven that by eclipsing 33 fantasy points in two of four games. Jaylen Waddle ($7,500) is an intriguing leverage option considering he won't be popular at all, but we saw him break a few slates last season and you'd have to imagine that now healthy, his time is coming. Tua Tagovailoa ($7,100) is always a good option, but I'm leaning toward saving the $1,300 and going with Daniel Jones ($5,800). Yes, I saw how bad the Giants looked on Monday night but remember that Jones was on all of the winning lineups a couple weeks ago when he dropped 34 fantasy points in a trailing game script against the Cardinals. I think it's fine to roster him naked considering he has rushing upside and his WRs aren't very appealing, but Wan'Dale Robinson ($3,000) is priced at the stone minimum. He has nine catches on 11 targets since returning from injury and his price allows for maximum lineup flexibility. Darius Slayton ($4,100) is also worth mentioning because he led the WRs in snaps and routes and he won't be as popular as Robinson.  

• Favorite stack: QB Jones + RB Achane + WR Hill or WR Waddle +/- WR Robinson

Cincinnati Bengals (23.75) at Arizona Cardinals (20.75)

If you still believe in the Bengals offense, stacking this game has merit because it should be competitive and the salaries on both sides are plenty affordable. Cincinnati has two of the top projected players on the slate in Ja'Marr Chase ($7,900) and Joe Mixon ($6,400). While Tyler Boyd ($4,500) looks like one of better values at WR. Part of the reason they're popping in projections is the expected absence of Tee Higgins ($6,600). His status will be important to monitor, especially when considering Boyd and Irv Smith's ($3,100) viability. This is the cheapest we've seen Joe Burrow ($6,200) priced in two years and his recent performances would say it's warranted. I still believe that he has big game coming sooner rather than later and the matchup in Arizona provides a great opportunity. The Cardinals have a variety of value options who project well and make sense when paired with Bengals. James Conner ($5,800) and Michael Wilson ($3,700) would offer leverage. Marquise Brown ($5,000) and Zach Ertz ($3,500) will be a bit more popular but not overly so considering most people don't like rostering Arizona players. 

• Favorite Stack 1: QB Burrow + WR Chase + WR Boyd + WR Brown or TE Ertz
• Favorite Stack 2: QB Burrow + RB Mixon + WR Chase + WR Wilson or TE Ertz 

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Patrick Mahomes + WR Justin Jefferson + WR Rashee Rice + TE Travis Kelce

QB Jalen Hurts + WR A.J. Brown or WR DeVonta Smith + TE Tyler Higbee

QB Tua Tagovailoa + RB De'Von Achane + WR Tyreek Hill and/or WR Jaylen Waddle +/- WR Wan'Dale Robinson

QB Anthony Richardson + RB Derrick Henry + WR Michael Pittman or WR Josh Downs

QB Kirk Cousins + RB Isiah Pacheco + WR Justin Jefferson 

QB Jared Goff + RB Miles Sanders + TE Sam LaPorta +/- WR Jameson Williams 

QB Joe Burrow + WR Ja'Marr Chase + WR Marquise Brown + TE Irv Smith

QB Joshua Dobbs + RB Joe Mixon + WR Ja'Marr Chase + WR Marquise Brown and/or TE Zach Ertz

High-Priced Heroes

• RB Bijan Robinson vs. HOU ($7,700)

Despite no rushing touchdowns yet, Robinson is averaging more than 19 fantasy points through four games. He's done it with a pair of 100-yard games and 19 catches. It's always tough to target Falcons games, but they have a rare favorable matchup at home against a Texans offense that likes to push a pace. Regardless, it's a good spot for Robinson to find the endzone a couple of times. Part of the reason he stands out is the fact that this slate lacks elite RB options, with a hobbled Saquon Barkley ($8,100) and Derrick Henry ($7,500) the only other two priced above $7K. 

• WR Ja'Marr Chase at ARI ($7,900)

Of note, I'm assuming Tee Higgins is out or else I would've highlighted Jefferson or Hill. Even if Higgins plays, Chase will project as one of the best values on the slate. With Higgins out, it's a smash spot for Chase, assuming Joe Burrow regains some confidence and competence. The Bengals have a great matchup against the Cardinals and you'd expect Chase to be targeted early and often in a must-win spot following their slow start to the season. Although I'll be rostering Chase, he will be quite popular which also makes him a good candidate to fade if you're out on the Bengals offense. 

Honorable Mentions: WR Justin Jefferson ($9,400); WR Tyreek Hill ($9,000)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• QB Patrick Mahomes at MIN ($8,200)

There are a few reasons why I'm fading Mahomes. For one, he's the most expensive QB on the slate and when you pair him with Travis Kelce ($7,200) and/or Justin Jefferson ($9,400), there isn't much salary left to work with. Second, he's going to be more popular than in any of the first four weeks because the matchup against the Vikings has the highest total. Third, it seems that him and Kelce haven't been hitting ceilings with the same frequency. You need them to put up pay scores to pay off. I'd rather get my Chiefs exposure through, Isiah Pacheco ($5,700). 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR Garrett Wilson at DEN ($6,000)

First, if Amon-Ra St. Brown is out, I'd use this spot to highlight Sam LaPorta ($5,000) or even Josh Reynolds ($4,200). It also would've been easy to just choose Marquise Brown ($5,000) or Wan'Dale Robinson ($3,000). Regardless of all that, this is a fantastic spot for Wilson up against a Broncos defense that's been historically bad through four weeks. Wilson's salary had come down significantly and he's coming off his best game of the season against the Chiefs in which he caught nine of 14 targets. More important, Zach Wilson ($4,900) looked rejuvenated and should have some confidence back going into Sunday. We've already seen Justin Fields and Sam Howell torch this Broncos defense. If you believe Zach Wilson can play well again, this is as good a spot Garrett will have all season. 

The Bargain Bin

QB Joshua Dobbs vs. CIN ($5,200)

QB Zach Wilson at DEN ($4,900)

RB Breece Hall at DEN ($5,400)

RB Miles Sanders at DET ($5,200)

WR Tank Dell at ATL ($4,800)

WR Drake London vs. HOU ($4,700)

WR Tyler Boyd at ARI ($4,500)

WR Jameson Williams vs. CAR ($4,000)

WR Michael Wilson vs. CIN ($3,700)

WR Rashee Rice at MIN ($3,600)

WR Calvin Austin vs. BAL ($3,500)

TE Kyle Pitts vs. HOU ($3,300)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo at IND ($3,200)

TE Tyler Conklin at DEN ($3,200)

TE Irv Smith at ARI ($3,100)

TE Jonnu Smith vs. HOU ($2,900)

TE Darnell Washington vs. BAL ($2,500)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR Tee Higgins at ARI 

Higgins hasn't practiced this week as he deals with a fractured rib. I've mentioned a few times that his status has a big impact on Tyler Boyd's viability and also should be considered when evaluating Ja'Marr Chase, Joe Mixon and even Irv Smith. 

• Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. CAR 

St. Brown missed every practice this week with an abdomen injury and is listed as questionable. If he's ruled out, Sam LaPorta ($5,000), Josh Reynolds ($4,200) and even Jameson Williams ($4,000) would get bumps. When you consider the usage void that would be left by St. Brown, LaPorta and Reynolds would feel safe enough for cash-games. 

Weather

Looks like it's going to be relatively windy in Pittsburgh and New England. Those are the two lowest-totaled games on the slate and I didn't have much interest in them anyway. Although you can always make the case for rostering Lamar Jackson ($7,800), who has four rushing TDs in the last two weeks and will mostly be an afterthought on this slate.