DraftKings NFL: Week 4 DFS Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 4 slate includes 12 games and features Commanders-Cardinals as the standout matchup with the lone 50-point total. Bengals-Panthers is the next highest-total game. Few would have predicted Washington and Carolina to be in such favorable spots by Week 4, but this is the NFL and it's as unpredictable as ever. 

We saw almost all of the chalk bust last week as Jordan Mason, Brandon Aiyuk and Cam Akers disappointed while Eagles-Saints failed to deliver anything but another Saquon Barkley smash. Keep that in mind when building lineups this week, especially as we have some of the same chalk. There's plenty of good leverage at every position this week and it's almost always those less popular players most responsible for winning DFS tournaments. In this article I've highlighted the best value for cash-games and included some ideas for GPPs. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. 

• RB Najee Harris at IND ($5,600)

There are a few reasons to like Harris this week. First, he averages 21 touches a game and now the Steelers are without Jaylen Warren, which further solidifies Harris' role. Second, the Colts have allowed the most rushing yards in the league to running backs. Their games typically have outsized play volume and their defense hasn't been able to get off the field. That's a good recipe for conceding fantasy points. Harris is viable in all formats this week. 

• WR Diontae Johnson vs. CIN ($5,600)

It's clear that Andy Dalton at QB makes a world of difference for the Panthers and specifically Johnson, who caught eight of 14 targets for 122 yards and a touchdown last week. Now Adam Thielen is out and Johnson's price hasn't adjusted enough for his role and that he has a competent passer throwing to him. The Panthers have a favorable matchup at home against a Bengals defense that hasn't been able to stop anyone, making Johnson a comfortable click in cash games and tournaments. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Kyler Murray vs. WAS ($6,800)

QB Jayden Daniels at ARI ($6,500)

QB Justin Fields at IND ($5,500)

RB Breece Hall vs. DEN ($7,800)

RB Bijan Robinson vs. NO ($7,400)

RB Kyren Williams at CHI ($7,300)

RB Jordan Mason vs. NE ($6,700)

RB Aaron Jones at GB ($6,400)

RB Brian Robinson at ARI ($6,100)

RB Chuba Hubbard vs. CIN ($5,700)

RB Najee Harris at IND ($5,600)

RB Cam Akers vs. JAX ($5,300), if Joe Mixon is out

WR Marvin Harrison vs. WAS ($7,500)

WR Rashee Rice at LAC ($7,300)

WR Nico Collins vs. JAX ($7,200)

WR Stefon Diggs vs. JAX ($6,600)

WR Diontae Johnson vs. CIN ($5,600)

WR Greg Dortch vs. WAS ($4,300)

WR Tre Tucker vs. CLE ($3,600)

WR Jonathan Mingo vs. CIN ($3,300)

TE Dallas Goedert at TB ($5,100)

TE Elijah Higgins vs. WAS ($3,100)

TE Tommy Tremble vs. CIN ($2,700)

D/ST Las Vegas Raiders vs. CLE ($3,200)

D/ST Houston Texans vs. JAX ($3,000)

D/ST Green Bay Packers vs. MIN ($3,000)

D/ST Philadelphia Eagles at TB ($2,900)

D/ST Los Angeles Rams at CHI ($2,800)

D/ST Atlanta Falcons vs. NO ($2,600)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Cincinnati Bengals (26) at Carolina Panthers (21.5)

BENGALS

It's been a nightmare start to the season for Cincinnati as it dropped to 0-3 after losing to Washington on Monday night. You can't really blame Joe Burrow ($6,600) and the offense, however. They didn't punt last week against the Commanders and did enough to beat the Chiefs the week before. Burrow completed 70 percent of his passes while throwing for 582 yards with a 5:0 touchdown to INT ratio during that stretch. Ja'Marr Chase ($7,700) looked back to his best as he exploded for 118 yards and two scores against Washington. Tee Higgins ($5,900) returned from a hamstring injury that caused him to miss the first two games and drew six targets, including three in the end zone. The nice thing about these Bengals WRs is that neither is expected to garner much ownership this week. Neither will Zack Moss ($5,900), who's coming off 17 touches, including five catches for 98 yards and a touchdown last week. Mike Gesicki ($3,500) has drawn at least four targets in all three games while Erick All ($2,500) has caught four passes in each of his last two. Either TE can be paired with Burrow in double stacks, but I prefer the $1,000 savings that All offers. 

PANTHERS

What a difference a quarterback can make. Andy Dalton ($5,300) stepped in for the ineffective Bryce Young last week and lit up the Raiders for 319 yards and three scores. Now he gets a matchup with Cincinnati, the place where he spent most of his career and made three Pro Bowls. The Bengals defense hasn't been able to stop anyone either. They just gave up a career game to Jayden Daniels as they were unable to force a single punt against the Commanders. Diontae Johnson ($5,600) was Dalton's favorite target against the Raiders, catching eight of 14 targets for 122 yards and a touchdown. Expect that to continue with the news that Adam Thielen has been placed on IR after suffering a hamstring injury. Xavier Legette ($4,800) and Jonathan Mingo ($3,300) will be asked to pick up the slack in Thielen's absence. I'd prefer taking a chance on Mingo as he's much cheaper and should play more snaps. Tommy Tremble ($2,700) is also viable if you're looking to punt at TE. He's caught three passes in back-to-back games. Chuba Hubbard ($5,700) is coming off his best game the season after 21 carries for 114 yards and five catches for 55 yards against the Raiders. If he sees another 20-plus touches against the Bengals, he should be one of the better values on the slate.  

• Favorite Bengals Stack: QB Burrows +RB Hubbard/WR Johnson + WR Chase/WR Higgins
• Favorite Panthers Stack: QB Dalton + WR Johnson + WR Chase or WR Higgins 

Washington Commanders (23.5) at Arizona Cardinals (27)

COMMANDERS

It was a coming-out party for Jayden Daniels ($6,500) on Monday night as he went into Cincinnati and completed 91 percent of his passes to help the Commanders put up 38 points and upset the Bengals. It was also their second straight game without a punt and now they get a matchup against an Arizona defense allowing a league-high 75 percent completion rate to QBs. All that said, it's no wonder that Daniels projects as the top QB value on the board. Terry McLaurin ($5,800) made a phenominal touchdown catch to seal the win and finished with four catches for 100 yards. He isn't too expensive and won't be overly popular. Considering how weak the TE position has been, it's worth mentioning that Zach Ertz ($4,000) has caught all nine of targets the last two games. He's touchdown-dependent and a little more expensive than you'd like but viable nonetheless. With Austin Ekeler out, Brian Robinson ($6,100) could be in line for an expanded role. Pairing him with Daniels would be an easy way to get leverage, but he probably makes most sense opposite Murray in Cardinals stacks. 

CARDINALS

Arizona's 27-point implied total is the highest on the slate for their home matchup against a well below-average Washington defense that didn't force a punt last week. It should be an ideal spot for Kyler Murray ($6,800) and Marvin Harrison ($7,500). Murray has rushed for at least 45 yards in all three games. Harrison already has three touchdowns and showed off a 32-point ceiling in Week 2. Trey McBride ($6,000) is out and his absence means Greg Dortch ($4,300) and Michael Wilson ($4,200) will be asked to pick up the slack. Both are decent tournament options but I prefer Wilson after he caught eight of nine targets for 64 yards last week. He's also more likely to catch a touchdown, in my opinion. McBride's direct backup, Elijah Higgins ($3,100) projects among the best cheap TEs and makes sense for salary relief in Murray-Harrison stacks. James Conner ($6,500) will be somewhat contrarian this week as he's sandwiched between chalk and that makes him good leverage for GPPs, especially opposite Daniels.

• Favorite Commanders Stack: QB Daniels + WR McLaurin + WR Harrison
• Favorite Cardinals Stack: QB Murray + RB Robinson + WR Harrison +/- TE Higgins

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Jalen Hurts + WR Chris Godwin + TE Dallas Goedert

QB Patrick Mahomes + WR Rashee Rice + WR Ladd McConkey or WR Quentin Johnston

QB C.J. Stroud + WR Nico Collins or WR Stefon Diggs + WR Christian Kirk or TE Brenton Strange

QB Jordan Love + RB Aaron Jones + WR Jayden Reed/WR Romeo Doubs/WR Christian Watson +/- TE Tucker Kraft

QB Caleb Williams + RB Kyren Williams + WR D.J. Moore or WR Rome Odunze +/- TE Cole Kmet

QB Justin Fields + WR George Pickens or TE Pat Freiermuth

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Marvin Harrison vs. WAS ($7,500)

With Trey McBride out, the stage is set for Harrison to carry the Arizona's passing attack and he gets the perfect matchup for it. Through three weeks, the Commanders secondary has been cooked by Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Malik Nabers and Ja'Marr Chase as they allowed at least 22 DraftKings points to all four. The connection between Harrison and Kyler Murray really started to blossom in Week 2 and I think we see a continuation of that Sunday. With so many good WR options in the $7K range it will be nice to roster Harrison at relatively lower ownership.

• WR Rashee Rice at LAC ($7,300)

With Isiah Pacheco out injured and Travis Kelce on the decline, Rice has clearly established himself as the focal point of Kansas City's offense. All of a sudden the Chiefs are thin at the skill positions with Marquise Brown out of the fold as well. Rice has stepped up to become the consistent No. 1 WR that Patrick Mahomes has been waiting for. He's coming off 12 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons and his matchup against the Chargers is improved by the absence of star safety Derwin James. The $7K range is loaded, but Rice feels like the safest click for cash-games based on projected volume and ownership. 

Honorable Mentions: WR Ja'Marr Chase ($7,700); WR Nico Collins ($7,200)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• QB Jalen Hurts at TB ($7,200)

The decision to fade Hurts here is twofold. First, I prefer both Murray and Daniels for cheaper and don't think it makes sense to spread my ownership even thinner with there being cheap QBs I like as well. Second, Saquon Barkley and his four rushing touchdowns clearly eats into Hurts' ceiling. It also doesn't help that he'll be without one or both of his top WRs. I think that makes Murray and Daniels are more likely to put up a big score. I even prefer the potential of Stroud and Burrow. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR George Pickens at IND ($5,700)

This will be one of the rare times I'll highlight the Pittsburgh passing game. It's just too good of an opportunity based on opponent. The Colts have run an average of 26 fewer plays than their opponents through weeks. I realize it's small sample, but that's a crazy stat. The Bears ran 90 plays in Indianapolis last week and Caleb Williams attempted 52 passes. I don't expect those type of numbers here, but it doesn't take much for Justin Fields ($5,500) and George Pickens ($5,700) to pay off their price tags and then some. The Steelers also without Jaylen Warren. Another reason we might see Arthur Smith call a few more pass plays than usual. 

Honorable Mention: Justin Fields ($5,500); Dallas Goedert ($5,100)

The Bargain Bin

QB Caleb Williams vs. LAR ($5,600)

QB Justin Fields at IND ($5,500)

QB Andy Dalton vs. CIN ($5,300)

RB Cam Akers vs. JAX ($5,300)

WR Darnell Mooney vs. NO ($4,400)

WR Greg Dortch vs. WAS ($4,300)

WR Michael Wilson vs. WAS ($4,200)

WR Tre Tucker vs. CLE ($3,600)

WR Jonathan Mingo vs. CIN ($3,300)

TE Elijah Higgins vs. WAS ($3,100)

TE Brenton Strange at HOU ($3,100), if Evan Engram is out

TE Tucker Kraft vs. MIN ($3,000)

TE Tommy Tremble vs. CIN ($2,700)

TE Erick All at CAR ($2,500)

Injuries to Monitor

• TE Evan Engram at HOU

Engram (hamstring) is doubtful to play and his absence would mean Brenton Strange ($3,100) gets another start at TE. It would also be a bump to Christian Kirk ($5,200), who Trevor Lawrence looks to first whenever Engram is out. 

• RB Joe Mixon vs. JAX

Mixon (ankle) is listed as questionable after being limited in practice Friday. Cam Akers ($5,300) would get another start if Mixon can't go. 

• TE Trey McBride vs. WAS

McBride (concussion) is out. Elijah Higgins ($3,100) becomes viable in all formats. Cardinals WRs get a bump. 

• WR Davante Adams vs. CLE 

Adams (hamstring) is out. Jakobi Meyers ($5,500), Tre Tucker $3,600) and Brock Bowers ($5,600) get bumps. 

Weather

The hurricane moving through the Tampa area should be out of the way come Sunday, thought the Eagles-Buccaneers game is expected to have showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, there's nothing to be concerned about this week.