This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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Week 16 in Circa Millions
By the time you get my next article, Christmas will have already passed. In addition to wishing you all a Merry Christmas, Big Daddy JohnnyVTV Claus will hopefully deliver a nice present in the form of a winner even if the slate is COMPLETE garbage this week. Week 16 is here, and there's so much on the line. Fantasy Playoffs, Real playoff implications, bets, and whatever else. Let's slide.
Eagles (-3.5) @ Commanders | Total: 45.5
The amount of talk about the Lions (and Vikings), Bills, Chiefs, and Ravens throughout the year in regards to what the culmination of this season could bring has seemingly "forgotten" one team. Philly has certainly put themselves in the mix and conversation for the top seed in the NFC. I definitely loved Detroit preseason to win it all, but the Eagles are now easily the healthiest of the top teams and a real threat to make that run. These next few weeks will shape who hoists the Lombardi trophy. Corre, corre, gatito.
The Eagles had a lot of questions in the first half of the year. They lost to Tampa and Atlanta. It's true, they were missing some key guys at the time, but they had lackluster performances. The defense improved immeasurably over the second half to the point where they are now the top defense in yardage allowed (275.6 YPG) and scoring (17.6 PPG).
Some of their big wins in the last month+ include an absolute spanking at the Rams, a clutch performance at the Ravens, and a dismantling of the Steelers. Building momentum on a healthy and ascending unit, Philly may be as dangerous as they appear. But dealing with an up and coming young threat is critical.
Back in Week 11 on a Thursday night, these two teams met. The Commanders dealt with a Jayden Daniels rib injury that essentially knocked them out of a chance to take the stranglehold in the division. Washington led through three quarters, and despite the offense not having a ton of success, the Commanders had a chance. Unfortunately, questionable coaching and poor execution allowed Washington cede to Philly.
While Washington has found their groove again with a healthy Daniels, the Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the league. The Commanders have no legit pass catchers outside of Terry McLaurin, and he was shut down to just a single catch for 10 yards by DROY candidate Quinyon Mitchell. RB Austin Ekeler is now on IR. It's probably rough sledding in the pass game. Brian Robinson and the run game could keep them in it for a while, but eventually they'll need help. The odds seem too insurmountable unless the defense makes some plays.
the Eagles offense is lethal right now with all of their weapons. Saquon Barkley is chasing history in the form of Eric Dickerson's single season rush record (2,105), needing just 418 yards. A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Jalen Hurts etc. are also humming. It just seems like they have too much firepower for this Washington team.
Pick: Eagles -3.5 -110 FanDuel
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Circa Million Week 16 Bets
Pick 1: Eagles -3.5
See Above.
Pick 2: Bills -14
Buffalo Chix is rippin right now. Josh Allen en route to his first MVP award is a huge reason for their success. After going into Detroit and nearly hitting a 50 bopper in a W, the Bills can smell the 2 seed. Even as a monster favorite against the Pats, I don't think they let up. Drake Maye can do some things, but I like Buffalo to suffocate them.
Pick 3: Falcons -8.5
It's a new era in the ATL. After growing up a Falcons fan, I can say it's the most excited I've been in a long time. Michael Penix is officially the starter, and there's only one chance to ever back him in his first start. Matchup wise, there's a lot of weapons on the ATL offense, and going againast a Drew Lock led Giants offense, I like the Falcons to be able to silence them enough to cover this number.
Pick 4: Seahawks +3
There's been a lot of luck on the part of Minnesota this year in my opinion. In the last six weeks, there are easily three games they could have lost. They have a lot of talent, but I'm not as completely sold on them. Seattle is a team I do have some concerns on, but this is a huge week for them in a messy NFC West/NFC playoff picture. At home in Seattle with what should be a fully healthy offense, getting three points is hard to pass up.
Pick 5: Bucs -3.5
My second home is Tampa, FL. Not only do I love that city, but I've always enjoyed watching their team throughout the years. Now with Baker Mayfield, it's hard to not route for them. The Bucs have won four straight and have really caught fire. While the division is still up for grabs it looks good for them. I don't know how Dallas' secondary will be able to slow the Bucs down. And with the Bucs defense heating up, they should get after Cooper Rush and company.
Best of luck!
