Kansas City Chiefs vs. 
Jacksonville Jaguars: Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 5
The Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars (3-1) in an AFC conference matchup on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs are coming off a huge home win against the Ravens, while the Jaguars had a big road win against the 49ers.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds
Chiefs -3.5 (Bet 365 -105) / Jaguars +3.5 (BetMGM +110)
Chiefs ML (BetRivers -182) / Jaguars ML (FanDuel +166)
Total OVER 45.5 (DraftKings -108) / UNDER 45.5 (BetRivers -108)
Chiefs total points: Over 24.5 (BetRivers +102) / Under 24.5 (DraftKings -110)
Jaguars total points: Over 20.5 (DraftKings -110) / Under 20.5 (BetRivers -103)
First-half spread: Chiefs -1.5 (DraftKings -112) / Jaguars +2.5 (Bet365 -115) First-half total: Over 22.5 (DraftKings -118) / Under 23.5 (BetRivers -121)
First-half team total: Chiefs Over 12.5 (BetRivers -122); Under 12.5 (BetRivers -103) Jaguars Over 11.5 (BetRivers +114) / Under 11.5 (BetRivers -141)
The Chiefs opened as 4.5 point road favorites, and it moved to -3.5 on 9/23, and dropped to -3.0 then -2.5 as KC did not look good before the Ravens win. It then bounced back to -3.0 and settled in at -3.5 since last Sunday's win. The line also bounced around after the Jaguars' unexpected win in San Francisco.
The total opened 47.5 and took a dip to 44.5 on 9/23. It climbed back up after last week to 46.5, before settling at 45.5.
The majority of the bets (69%) have come in on the Chiefs, and the handle (82%) is on also on Kansas City. This shows that the "sharp" money is coming in on KC.
The total sees money on the Over at 63% of total bets, and 72% of the handle, which means some of the sharper money is coming in on the OVER. The moneyline shows who has taken a position on the game, and the Chiefs have received 93% of the bets and have 99% of the handle.
Key Injuries
Chiefs - DT Omarr Norman-Lott (Q), CB Kristian Fulton (Q), WR Xavier Worthy (Q)
Jaguars - LB Yasir Abdullah (O), DE Travon Walker (Q), OL Wyatt Milum (Q)
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Chiefs vs. Jaguars Betting Picks
This has been one of the toughest games to handicap this year, and I think the side/total are very close to what we see as a final result. The Jaguars have not played as tough of a schedule as the Chiefs, but they have been able to establish the run, stop the run, and get turnovers. The Chiefs have played a brutal schedule, but did catch the Giants and a beleaguered Ravens team the last two weeks. KC has also dealt with its share of injuries.
Keep an eye on both Worthy and Walker because if either one of them is out, it will impact the outcome of the game.
TRENDS
- Kansas City is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games.
- Kansas City is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games.
- Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against Jacksonville.
- Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
- Jacksonville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games against Kansas City.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games at home.
- The Jaguars have lost 8 in a row to the Chiefs
- The Chiefs are dead last in 1st quarter points scored with 1.5; The Jaguars average 4.3 1st quarter points
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Best Bets
Chiefs -3.5 for 1 unit (Bet365 -105)
Travis Etienne OVER 14.5 carries for 1 unit (BetRivers -120)
BONUS Bet: Both teams make a 33-yard or Longer FG YES for 1 unit (DraftKings -130)
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Prediction
Predicting a game 26-20 with a line of -3.5 and a total of 45.5 is about as square and chalk as you can get, but let's face it, the NFL lines are known for being the sharpest around. Both defenses are playing much better than their respective offenses at this time, and the series has been trending under.
The one risk about taking the Chiefs to win but not cover is that they have a showdown with the Lions next week, and there could be a look-ahead factor in play.
Chiefs 26, Jaguars 20
