This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Wild Card Picks: Best Bets and Predictions for Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins
Hello friends! With the Bears in full hibernation, I've been asked to break down what I think is the toughest game in this week's slate. I've had good luck navigating the tricky NFL so far this year with an overall record of 9-3/+6 units, so let's see if we can stay on the winning track during Super Wildcard Week. This game has MANY variables, so wherever we land, I highly recommend taking a measured approach with your action.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Betting Odds for Super Wildcard Week
Buffalo opened as a 10.5-point favorite but that was prior to the news that Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa was ruled out. With that news, the line shot up to 13.5 where it has remained universally. With that spread, the Bills are as low as -750 on the moneyline at PointsBet while the Dolphins are as high as +640 at FanDuel. The total opened at 44.5 and the Tua news has dropped it marginally to 43.5 across the board. One interesting tidbit: Buffalo is getting 75% of the bets and 87% of the money right now, yet the books are refusing to move this on or past the key number of 14. That tells me they are happy with the action being on the large public favorite which is helping to formulate my leans.
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Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Betting Picks This Week
The world is on Buffalo, that much is clear. I think everyone expects Damar Hamlin to lead a parade down Orchard Park, high-fiving every member of Bills Mafia, and stopping on the 50-yard line to win the opening coin toss before the Bills win 138-0. It is very easy to get caught up in that positive emotion.....and in the grand scheme of things, that's great. We need that as humans. Sadly, sports betting requires cold, hard logic and I see the opposite happening. First, Mike McDaniel has proven to be a wizard, navigating every difficulty in Miami this year to get his Dolphins to this point. Second, these are division rivals and Miami still has a TON of talent on the field. In the two games between them this year, the home teams each won by 2 and 3 points, respectively. Third, in those games, Tua was a small factor in the loss and a near non-factor in the home win. And finally, as a team, the Bills have to be emotionally exhausted. They rallied around their teammate with a storybook game last week, but it is so hard to be asked to do that again and and again. No one can blame Buffalo for having an emotional letdown and I foresee that happening on Sunday. Because of that letdown, I see a fast-moving, low-scoring game unfolding, making my Best Bet here on UNDER 43.5. I also lean towards a small bet on Miami with all those points and/or a same-game parlay on Miami and the under if so inclined.
Miami @ Buffalo Best Bet: UNDER 43.5 (Consensus)
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Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Prediction
I see Miami battling and keeping things simple for Skylar Thompson: short stuff to Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle and perhaps the use of Thompson's legs that we didn't really see much of against the Jets. You know McDaniel has a plan. Buffalo will try to limit explosive plays and Miami will take what they can get. Buffalo also knows they are the superior team in the better situation and doesn't need to take risks to win this game. I foresee a very fast and scoreless 1st quarter and the Bills taking a small, 10-7 lead into halftime. Buffalo creates some breathing room in the 3rd, extending the lead to 16-7 going into the last quarter. Being the resilient group they are, the Dolphins battle and keep it close well into the 4th quarter before Buffalo seals it with Tyler Bass' 5th FG of the game and a 22-17 victory.
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