This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 7-6 last week, but it was a bad 7-6 as I was dead wrong on my best bet, the Eagles, and went 2-3 in the Supercontest. What's worse, I was 6-2 through the early wave and brimming with confidence before getting wiped out in the afternoon and night games. It's par for the course, though. NFL handicapping is a wild beast, and every time you think you've tamed it, it throws you off its back.
This week I have a lot of big favorites, i.e., what used to be the sucker side, but I'm sticking to the lines I made. The Colts and Chargers feel especially that way to me, and I have misgivings about the Giants, Bills, Packers and Seahawks on the dog side. Teams I like best are the Falcons, Ravens and Broncos.
Remember, the key to a happy holiday is to go 2-1 ATS on Thanksgiving.
THANKSGIVING DAY
Bears -3 at Lions
This line dropped from 4.5, probably because of Mitchell Trubisky's uncertain status. In any event, I made it -5.5 with Trubisky, and given he's likely to play, I'll lay the wood.
Bears 23 - 16
Redskins +7.5 at Cowboys
The Redskins lost Alex Smith last week, but Colt McCoy is an experienced veteran who probably won't wreck things, and it's not as though Smith was lighting the league on fire. The Redskins defense is stout, and I expect the Cowboys to slow it down and slug it out. Take
I went 7-6 last week, but it was a bad 7-6 as I was dead wrong on my best bet, the Eagles, and went 2-3 in the Supercontest. What's worse, I was 6-2 through the early wave and brimming with confidence before getting wiped out in the afternoon and night games. It's par for the course, though. NFL handicapping is a wild beast, and every time you think you've tamed it, it throws you off its back.
This week I have a lot of big favorites, i.e., what used to be the sucker side, but I'm sticking to the lines I made. The Colts and Chargers feel especially that way to me, and I have misgivings about the Giants, Bills, Packers and Seahawks on the dog side. Teams I like best are the Falcons, Ravens and Broncos.
Remember, the key to a happy holiday is to go 2-1 ATS on Thanksgiving.
THANKSGIVING DAY
Bears -3 at Lions
This line dropped from 4.5, probably because of Mitchell Trubisky's uncertain status. In any event, I made it -5.5 with Trubisky, and given he's likely to play, I'll lay the wood.
Bears 23 - 16
Redskins +7.5 at Cowboys
The Redskins lost Alex Smith last week, but Colt McCoy is an experienced veteran who probably won't wreck things, and it's not as though Smith was lighting the league on fire. The Redskins defense is stout, and I expect the Cowboys to slow it down and slug it out. Take the points.
Cowboys 21 - 16
Falcons +13 at Saints
I set this line at 9.5 and was pretty shocked to see it all the way at 13. The Saints have been great, especially at home, but the Falcons know them well and should be able to keep up in the dome. Take the points.
Saints 33 - 24
EARLY GAMES
Jaguars -3 at Bills
I set this line at 1.5, but liked it a lot more at 3.5. These are such similar teams with stout defenses and weak offenses. I have a Jaguars feeling, but I'll ignore it and take the team I think is the better value. Take the points.
Jaguars 17 - 16
Raiders +11 at Ravens
I made this line 12.5 as the Raiders are exactly the kind of team on which the Ravens beat up, and I like that the Raiders got a token win to satisfy them last week. Lay the wood.
Ravens 33 - 3
49ers +3.5 at Buccaneers
I see these as roughly equal teams, so I made this line three. As such, I'll take the points with the extra hook.
Buccaneers 26 - 23
Giants +6 at Eagles
I realize the Saints are tough, but the Eagles utter no-show last week surprised me. It was as if they weren't a serious NFL team. The Giants offensive line is playing better of late, and Eliability is able to make some throws to his elite weapons when the pocket is perfect. This venue will be a test, but I'll take the points.
Eagles 27 - 23
Browns +3 at Bengals
With A.J. Green out, it's hard to point out one thing the Bengals do well. The Browns are better defensively and coming off the bye. Take the points.
Browns 24 - 23
Patriots -9.5 at Jets
This might be the sucker side, but the Patriots, coming off the bye, should kill the Jets, irrespective of venue or whether Sam Darnold or Josh McCown starts at QB. Lay the wood.
Patriots 37 - 17
Seahawks +3.5 at Panthers
These strike me as roughly equal teams, and the Seahawks are getting the extra half point. I don't love the early body-clock game for Seattle, but I'll take the points.
Panthers 20 - 19
LATE GAMES
Dolphins +9 at Colts
The Colts seem to have figured something out, while the Dolphins are bad on both sides of the ball, even with Ryan Tannehill at QB, and not good on the road. I made this line 11.5, so I'm laying the wood.
Colts 28 - 17
Cardinals +12 at Chargers
The Chargers blew last week's game against the Broncos, and I'm typically wary of taking teams off bad losses, but the Cardinals did the same thing at home against the Raiders. I made this line 13.5 - if Joey Bosa can be himself after a game under his belt, the Chargers might have the best defense in the league. Lay the wood.
Chargers 31 - 16
Steelers -3 at Broncos
The Steelers were lucky to win in Jacksonville last week, but they have another tough road test in Denver. The Broncos defense is good, and their offense, while below average, is much better than that of the Jaguars. Take the home dog.
Broncos 23 - 20
SUNDAY NIGHT
Packers +3.5 at Vikings
Mike McCarthy is awful, the Packers lost a heart-breaking game due to his ineptitude and now they face a tough Minnesota defense on the road. But the Vikings offense is also mediocre, and Aaron Rodgers is getting more than the full field goal here. Take the points.
Vikings 24 - 23
MONDAY NIGHT
Titans +6 at Texans
If Marcus Mariota were playing, I'd set this line at three. If he were not playing, I'd probably bump it to nine. This line splits the difference, but when in doubt, take the points.
Texans 20 - 16
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Last week, I went 7-6 to put me at 84-72-5 on the year, lost my best bet, the Eagles (6-5 overall), and went 2-3 in the Supercontest (28-26-1). Last year I went 117-125-14 on the season, 12-4-1 on best bets, 43-39-3 in the Supercontest. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,545-2,395 (51.5%), not including ties.
