Beating the Book: Handicapping Week 11

I went 9-4-1, won my best bet, the Redskins, and went 3-2 in the Supercontest, so it was a decent week.

Maybe that has me overconfident, but I feel good about this slate. I especially like the Cardinals, Giants, Jaguars, Eagles and Vikings. If you can get the Vikings at three, I like them even better. I could even be talked into the Falcons, Redskins and Seahawks too.

As usual I'll post my best bet in Staff Picks and my Supercontest picks in the comments.

For the podcast version of this article, click here.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Packers +2.5 at Seahawks

I made this line three, and I'm not sure why the Packers aren't getting the full field goal. These are two equal teams playing in one of the NFL's toughest road venues off a short week. Lay the wood.

Seahawks 26 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Panthers -3.5 at Lions

I made this line minus three, and the hook is enough to put me on the Lions at home, their 16 sacks allowed the last two games notwithstanding. Take the points.

Panthers 24 - 23

Cowboys +3 at Falcons

The Cowboys are typically worse on the road and the Falcons better at home. This struck me as a good buy-low, sell-high too, and accordingly I set the line at 3.5. Take the Falcons.

Falcons 27 - 23

Bengals +4 at Ravens

This line is largely off the board due to the uncertainty for the Ravens at QB, but I saw it at four in a couple spots, so we'll go with that. I don't think any QB would be a major downgrade from Joe Flacco, so I made this line 4.5. The Bengals offense is struggling without A.J. Green, and their defense is bad. Lay the wood.

Ravens 23 - 17

Titans +2.5 at Colts

This is exactly where I set the line, so this is a coin flip for me. I want to take the Titans, who are better defensively, but my gut says to fade them off the big win over the Patriots. Lay the wood.

Colts 26 - 23

Texans -3 at Redskins

Sometimes the public just wants it more than you do. I set this line as a pick 'em, thinking it would be Texans plus 1.5, and that I'd be on them. Instead they're laying a field goal, and I'm happy to take the Redskins. Take the points.

Redskins 20 - 19

Buccaneers +1.5 at Giants

Call me a homer, but I set this line at six. The Bucs can't play defense, Dirk Koetter is calling the plays again, and Ryan Fitzpatrick has regressed to being the turnover-prone journeyman he's always been. Lay the wood, Eliability™ notwithstanding.

Giants 31 - 24

Steelers -5.5 at Jaguars

The Steelers are red hot, while the Jaguars have dropped out of contention the last couple weeks. Still, this is too many points for Pittsburgh on the road against a quasi-rival that beat them in the playoffs last year. Take the points.

Jaguars 24 - 23

LATE GAMES

Broncos +7 at Chargers

The Broncos are good defensively, and this is a divisional game, but the Chargers are strong virtually everywhere, and nominally at home. I made this line 7.5, so I'm laying the wood.

Chargers 24 - 14

Raiders +4 at Cardinals

I made this line a ridiculous eight, i.e., I wanted it more than the public in this case. The Cardinals have a league-average defense, and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich has finally brought the offense into this century. The Raiders have nothing, and I'll need to see them show up before taking them at a reasonable price again. Lay the wood.

Cardinals 28 - 10

Eagles +8.5 at Saints

I've seen this line as high as nine in some places, but I set it at 7.5. The Saints are great, but the Super Bowl champs still have a shot to win the division, and I expect them to show up for this. Take the points.

Eagles 31 - 30

SUNDAY NIGHT

Vikings +2.5 at Bears

I was tempted to cheat here - there were three books that had it at three, and four that had it at 2.5, the "consensus" line (whatever that means) was also three, and it was three in two other places. But I'll stick with 2.5 rather than break the rule of using the flat majority on this page because I hate it when handicappers inflate their records by taking the best possible listed lines, whether or not they could actually bet them. I made the line 2.5 myself, so at three it would have been an easy call. Either way, take the Vikings who I think are the better team.

Vikings 27 - 20

MONDAY NIGHT

Chiefs +3.5 at Rams

This one is tricky. I made the Rams two-point favorites in Mexico City in a neutral venue, but now the game's being moved to Los Angeles because of poor field conditions. (To see what a real team would do, click here.) In any event, you'd think two on a neutral field would require five on the road, but it's not that simple as the move crossed the key number of three, i.e, the move from two to 3.5 is arguably bigger than say 3.5 to 6.5. Bottom line, I'd like to fade both these teams. The Rams offense hasn't been as efficient without Cooper Kupp, and the Chiefs let the Cardinals get to the quarterback last week. I have a Rams feeling but I'll resist and take the Chiefs to keep it close.

Rams 27 - 26

For the podcast version of this article, click here

Last week, I went 9-4-1 to put me at 77-66-5 on the year, won my best bet, the Redskins (6-4 overall), and went 3-2 in the Supercontest (26-23-1). Last year I went 117-125-14 on the season, 12-4-1 on best bets, 43-39-3 in the Supercontest. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,545-2,395 (51.5%), not including ties.