Beating the Book: Eagles Handle Bills, Ravens Over Chargers + Full NFL Week 12 ATS Picks

Welcome to the Week 12 edition of Beating the Book!

We have a unique slate ahead of us, which kicks off with three games on Thanksgiving Day. Mere hours later, we'll get the first Black Friday game in NFL history, as the Dolphins head to New York to take on the Tim Boyle-led Jets. Buckle the hell up.

With no teams on bye this week, we still have a robust Sunday slate littered with in-division matchups. Jaguars-Texans could go a long way toward deciding the AFC South, while the winner of Saints-Falcons will have a leg up on getting to the seven wins required to take the NFC South.

Once again, the slate features a number of low totals, including four games with a number lower than 37.0. Patriots-Giants (33.5) is setting up to be an all-time rock fight, while Browns-Broncos (35.0), Steelers-Bengals (34.5) and Panthers-Titans (36.5) are definitely football games that will be played. We'll leave it at that for now.

Perhaps the game of the week lands in the late-afternoon slate on Sunday when the Bills head to Philly for a date with the Eagles. Philadelphia, of course, is rolling after a win at Arrowhead on Monday night, while the Bills got back on track with a dominant home win over the Jets in Week 11.

You can find my thoughts on that game, as well as the entire Week 12 slate, below. As is the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Last week: 6-8 ATS; 10-4 SU; best bet lost (DET -9.0)

On the season: 77-82-5 ATS, 98-66 SU; 7-4 best bet

Best calls of Week 11:

• I give an ever-so-slight lean to the Eagles – partially because they're getting points (even if it's only 2.5), and partially because I trust their offense to pick its spots more consistently against a blitz-happy KC defense. While fully accepting that we're never going to feel good betting against Patrick Mahomes, the Eagles with the points is our play.
• The Panthers' offense seemed to hit rock-bottom last Thursday against Chicago, and this is not the opponent they want to see on the schedule. Dallas is a different team away from home, but even if they commit some mistakes it's hard to imagine Carolina doing enough to truly threaten.

Worst calls of Week 11:

• The Chargers' defense may be a mess week-to-week, but it should be well-equipped to slow down a Love-led attack. If Green Bay can get Aaron Jones going, this could get interesting, but I like the Chargers to go into Lambeau Field and get a win to hang on in the AFC playoff race.
• The Rams got the best of Seattle in Week 1, but with what could be a limited version of Stafford, I like the Seahawks to get their passing game revved up and snap a six-game ATS losing streak to Sean McVay.

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Thanksgiving Day Games

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-7.5)

As always, Thanksgiving Day takes us to Detroit, where the Lions will play host to the Packers after dodging a bullet against Chicago in Week 11. On one hand, it's a bit concerning that Detroit needed two late touchdowns just to win outright against the Bears. On the other, the Lions should get some credit for finding a way to win a game that this franchise would, historically, almost always lose.

Meanwhile, Green Bay's passing game has woken up over the last few weeks, and Jordan Love has strung together three consecutive encouraging games. To be fair, Green Bay was a Quentin Johnston drop away from losing, but on balance they've been a much more competitive and competent offense since dropping four straight to Detroit, Las Vegas, Denver and Minnesota.

Ultimately, I still view the Packers as a lower-level, developing team, while the Lions continue to look like the clear No. 3 team in the NFC. Green Bay will also be without Aaron Jones, who picked up an MCL sprain in the win over LA.

Based on what we've seen the last two weeks, it wouldn't be surprising to see Love move the ball against this Lions defense, but I like Goff to get back on track and lead a two-score victory.

The pick: Lions 30 – Packers 21

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-11.0)

Will Ron Rivera be out of a job by Friday morning? It's certainly beginning to feel that way – especially after Washington took what may be the single worst/saddest loss any team has suffered this season. It's one thing to fail to cover at home against the Giants. It's another to lose straight up. But losing to that Giants team by two scores? Borderline unconscionable. 

Knowing the Commanders, they'll probably find a way to rally and make this a game in Dallas, but the Cowboys have done nothing but decimate bad teams at home this season. In their four home games, the Cowboys have outscored the Jets, Pats, Rams and Giants by a combined 160 to 50.

Favored by double-digits for the third week in a row, this could be a trip-up spot for Dallas, but I don't think that happens against a Commanders defense that allowed 31 points – despite nine sacks! – to Tommy DeVito last week.

The pick: Cowboys 33 – Commanders 20

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+6.5)

Seattle caught some breaks in recent wins over the Browns and Commanders, but those breaks went the other way against the Rams in Week 11. Seattle now embarks on an extremely treacherous portion of its schedule with the Niners, Cowboys, Niners (again) and Eagles coming up. Getting this first San Francisco matchup at home is a plus, but the Seahawks will be without Kenneth Walker, and Geno Smith likely won't be at 100 percent after taking a shot to the elbow that knocked him out of the Rams game for several series.

On the other side, San Francisco is rolling again after using the bye week to get healthy. While the Niners' offense ground to a halt in the second half against Tampa Bay, Brock Purdy and Co. did more than enough through two-and-a-half quarters to hang on for a comfortable win and cover. 

Seattle will find a way to make this interesting – the absence of Talanoa Hufanga is huge – but they're too mistake-prone on third downs (31.7% conversion rate) to keep this under a touchdown.

The pick: 49ers 28 – Seahawks 21

Black Friday Game

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+10.0)

The NFL's inaugural Black Friday game will also mark the debut of the Jets' new starting quarterback. It's officially Tim Boyle Time after Zach Wilson's latest wildly disappointing start in Sunday's rout at the hands of the Bills. The Jets delayed this move as long as they could – perhaps for good reason – but at this point there's no harm in getting a look at Boyle.

While the Jets are at home, this is obviously a tough spot for the ex-Packer/Lion/Bear, who came on in relief of Wilson last week and completed 7-of-14 passes for 33 yards and a pick. In terms of pedigree, there's not much reason to believe the offense will look different under Boyle, but the Jets had clearly reached their breaking point with Wilson.

The Dolphins are coming off of a win over the Raiders, but for the first time all season at home, the offense failed to put up at least 31 points. Turnovers and third-down struggles were mostly to blame, though Miami still racked up 422 yards of total offense. Even supercharged offenses like Miami's are afforded a few slip-ups throughout the season, but the Jets' defense will provide a much stiffer test than Vegas' 21st-ranked unit. Still, the defense can only do so much when it's consistently put in bad spots by a toothless offense. 

With all due respect to Boyle, we're not counting on much of a jolt. Give me the Dolphins to win and cover another low-scoring game, by their standards.

The pick: Dolphins 27 – Jets 13

Sunday Early Games

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+1.0)

With seven weeks to play, the NFC South is still very much up for grabs. There's a good chance it'll remain that way until Week 17 or 18. Both of these teams are coming off of a much-needed bye, but the Saints, in particular, are still dealing with some key injuries. Derek Carr should have a good chance to play but remains in concussion protocol, while Marshon Lattimore and Michael Thomas look to be trending toward an absence.

Lattimore would be a huge loss for the Saints, though perhaps not so much against a Desmond Ridder-led Falcons attack. Atlanta has been the single most perplexing team for me to bet this season, but the Saints are a weekly headache in their own right. I hate to put any semblance of faith in Ridder, but the Falcons should be able to beat this banged-up Saints team.

The pick: Falcons 17 – Saints 14

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+1.0)

The Bengals' season isn't officially dead, but it's on life support after Joe Burrow suffered a torn ligament in his wrist last week. This is close to a must-win for Cincinnati, which will turn to Jake Browning as it looks to avoid falling even further down the AFC standings. There's some level of intrigue with the former Washington star, but no matter he'll be a significant downgrade for an offense that relies so heavily on timing and Burrow being Burrow.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, finally pulled the plug on Matt Canada on Tuesday morning, and the hope is that the firing is addition by subtraction. Pittsburgh had not fired a coach or coordinator mid-season since 1941, which tells you all you need to know about just how dreadful this offense has been. The passing game, in particular, has been an abject disaster, with the Steleers ranking 26th in EPA, 29th in passer rating, 31st in yards per game, 28th in yards per attempt, 28th in completion percentage and 31st in touchdowns (7). 

Parting ways with Canada won't magically fix Kenny Pickett, but it's hard to imagine this is a move that won't be well-received in the locker room. Expecting an immediate uptick is probably unrealistic, but this should be a spot where the Steelers can grind out another one of their signature, ugly wins. Browning is the primary concern, but the Bengals' defense has also slipped of late, allowing 460 yards to San Francisco, 544 to Houston and 405 to Baltimore.

The pick: Steelers 21 – Bengals 17

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (+1.5)

As anticipated, a Week 12 Jags-Texans matchup could end up deciding the AFC South. Houston already has a win banked over Jacksonville – at Fred Taylor Stadium, no less – back in Week 3, so a win here would not only vault the Texans into first place but would also give them the tiebreaker.

Jacksonville giving a point-and-a-half seems about right. While C.J. Stroud continues to look like one of the best rookie quarterbacks in recent memory, Houston's defense is still a bottom-10 unit, while the Jags' defense returned to form last week against Tennessee. That side of the ball should be a decided advantage for Jacksonville, though Stroud shredded the Jags for 280 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting. In the weeks since, he's only picked up more experience and confidence. 

To me, this game will come down to two things: 1. Whether or not Jacksonville can move the ball on the ground. The Jaguars are 31st in rushing EPA, averaging just 3.7 yards per attempt and struggling to generate chunk plays; 2. Whether or not the Jaguars can pressure Stroud and/or force at least one turnover. The Jags are allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game this season, but they've snagged 11 interceptions. 

I fully expect the Jags to come out more prepared than they were in Week 3, but this is still a team that struggles on third downs and can't put good opponents away. In what may admittedly be another patented Nick Whalen Mental Health Hedge, we'll take the Texans to win it by a field goal.

The pick: Texans 31 – Jaguars 28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)

Plenty of candidates this week, but we're going to go ahead and make this the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. Just stay away. Please. I'm begging you.

The Colts come in off of a bye and looking to hang around in the AFC playoff race – mathematically, at least. The AFC South somehow sneaking three teams in would be a monumental achievement, but it's not completely out of the question and might simply come down to whether the Bills allow that to happen. But that's neither here nor there. 

Indy has been a productive bet for us this season, but they're also one of the highest-variance teams in the NFL. Such is life when you're starting Gardner Minshew. Regardless, the Colts score very high on the Friskiness Meter and were the only team to score at least 20 points in every game prior to their 10-6 victory over New England in Week 10.

Tampa Bay enters the week off of a loss to the Niners, but the Bucs hung tough and had multiple chances to cover in the fourth quarter. For the most part, Baker Mayfield has kept the turnovers under control, but the Bucs are still an incredibly one-dimensional offense week in and week out.

Tampa has the defense to shut down Indy's rushing attack – which hasn't been great anyway – but the Bucs may be down three key defensive starters in Lavonte David, Jamel Dean and Calrton Davis, all of whom emerged from Week 11 with injuries. That's enough for me to believe that Minshew can do just enough to out-score a Bucs offense that's put up 20 ore fewer points in seven of 10 games thus far.

The pick: Colts 24 – Buccaneers 21

New England Patriots at New York Giants (+3.5)

Here we go. It's time for what may be the single saddest game of the NFL season. The Patriots are in complete shambles after losing in Germany to the Colts, and it remains unclear if they'll start Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe or some combination of the two. 

Somehow, the Giants are riding high after piling up 31 points and forcing six turnovers in a dominant win over the Commanders in Week 11. That victory may have pried the door open for New England to mount a challenge to the Panthers, who do not own their pick, for the NFL's worst record.

This is truly a perplexing game to pick. Any lingering Patriots mystique is completely gone, and it's entirely possible New England could lose this game straight up. With that said, this is a classic Bill Belichick with an extra week to prepare for a very bad quarterback spot. We'll hold our breath and take the Pats.

The pick: Patriots 21 – Giants 17

Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)

This was another strong contender for the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. The Panthers haven't inspired much confidence of late/at all this season, but Tennessee may be entering a full-on free-fall as it plays out the string on a lost season. 

Carolina's passing attack has been woefully conservative and ineffective for most of the season, and Bryce Young enters Week 12 having failed to throw for more than 185 yards in three straight games. The Titans are good against the run, so if there's a spot for Young to wake up, this might be it.

Unlike Carolina, Tennessee is more than willing to take shots down the field. Since taking over, Will Levis has an average yards per completion of 11.7 – near the top of the league. Carolina's pass defense has held up reasonably well this season, but preventing big plays will be a priority.

With the number at 3.5, this is close to a toss-up for me. I'll side with Tennessee to win a close, weird-score game, but the Panthers can cover.

The pick: Titans 19 – Panthers 17

Sunday Afternoon Games

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+1.0)

We're waiting on some big injury news for the Rams, as both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua emerged from Sunday's win over the Seahawks with injuries that could keep them out for Week 12. Assuming both play, I like the Rams to exploit a bad Cardinals defense for another close win. But if Kupp and Nacua – or even one of them – are out, this could get very dicey. We'll go with the Rams to move to 9-0 ATS in their last nine matchups against Arizona.

The pick: Rams 23 – Cardinals 20

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-2.5)

The Browns' defense almost single-handedly carried them to another win last week, but it's tough to view this as a sustainable model for the rest of the season. Cleveland holding Kenny Pickett to 106 passing yards and bottling up Najee Harris covered up the fact that the Browns barely outgained Pittsburgh (259 to 249) despite running 16 more offensive plays (3.5 yards per play).

Dorian Thompson-Robinson only threw one pick on 44 dropbacks, but putting the ball in DTR's hands that many times is not a recipe for success – especially against a Denver defense that has clearly put the trauma of Miami's 70-point game in the rear-view.

Did the Broncos deserve to win at home against Minnesota? Maybe not. But the defense continues to force turnovers, and Russell Wilson is doing just enough to keep the passing game afloat. In all likelihood, the Broncos will struggle to run the ball on Cleveland, but Denver's offensive line grades out as one of the best in the league this season.

For as historically great as the Browns' defense has been this season, going on the road in Denver with a limited quarterback is a difficult task. I'll ride with the Broncos to win another tight game and somehow, someway force their way into the AFC Wild Card picture.

The pick: Broncos 20 – Browns 17

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (+8.5)

Kansas City's offense – and specifically pass-catching – is officially a real problem after Monday night's home loss to Philly. It's been in the back of our minds all season, but for the second time it's now been the difference between a win and a loss for KC, which has scored 20 or fewer points five times in 10 games. We're nowhere near panic mode for a team that has Patrick Mahomes and just won the Super Bowl, but the Chiefs no longer look like a team that can pile up points at will.

The question is whether that will be necessary against this Raiders team. Vegas is 2-1 since cleaning house, but those wins came over the Giants and the Jets. Holding the Dolphins to only 20 points may have been their most impressive feat under Antonio Pierce. The Dolphins did still pile up 422 yards of offense, but the Raiders forced three turnovers (tied for season high) and had multiple chances to tie the game late.

While Vegas is clearly playing with a different level of confidence, they now run into a Chiefs defense that continues to look like one of the best units in the league and is easily the best of the Mahomes era. Protecting Aidan O'Connell is going to be a difficult task, but if Vegas can keep him even semi-upright they should be able to hang around.

The pick: Chiefs 24 – Raiders 17

Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

Coming off of a tough win at Arrowhead, this could be at trip-up spot for the Eagles, but they return home and face a Bills team that still has plenty of question marks that a win over the Zach Wilson/Tim Boyle Jets cannot erase. I'm of the belief that Buffalo can still show up as an elite offense more often than not, but this is a bad matchup for the banged-up Bills defense, which basically got a week off against New York.

If this turns into a shootout, as the 48.5-point total would imply, I'm siding with the Eagles.  

The pick: Eagles 30 – Bills 24

Sunday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5)

I know the Ravens are making a cross-country trip and just lost Mark Andrews, but this feels like a friendly number for what may still be the best team in the AFC. Meanwhile, the Chargers are verging on all-out disaster territory after an ugly loss in Green Bay. While a slew of key drops – including a big one by Quentin Johnston – were mostly to blame, it's clear LA has much bigger issues to solve. 

Playing without Joey Bosa, I don't see the Chargers' declining defense offering much resistance – even with no Andrews. Give me the Ravens to win and cover on the road.

The pick: Ravens 27 – Chargers 17

Monday Night Football

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)

Sneaky-fun game to conclude the week on Monday Night Football. Even after a narrow loss in Denver, Joshua Dobbs has breathed life into a Vikings team we left for dead multiple times this season. Minnesota played well enough to win had it not been for three costly turnovers – their most in any game since Week 2.

Chicago showed up and forced four turnovers of its own in Detroit last week, but in extreme Bears fashion could not hold onto a two-score lead with just over four minutes to play. While the Bears may no longer be a pushover opponent, they're still one of the shakiest defenses in the league and will likely have trouble corralling Josh Dobbs. Last week was an impressive showing for 3.85 quarters, but I'm not sure I trust the Bears to repeat it.

Give me the Vikings to win and (barely) cover at home. We'll feel much better about it if Justin Jefferson is given the green light to return.

The pick: Vikings 27 – Bears 23