Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 8

What a brutal week. Not only did I go 3-10-1 ATS, 1-4 in the Supercontest and lose my best bet, the Jaguars by a mile, but I was lucky it wasn't worse. My three wins were the Giants miracle last-second backdoor cover, the Titans who covered on a fourth-down play and the Redskins who covered due to a missed field goal aided by a snap-infraction on the previous try that pushed it five yards back. Even the push by the Browns required a furious fourth-quarter comeback.

In fairness, I hated the slate, and most games were coin flips, but I was thinking 5-9, not 3-10-1 with the possibility of 0-14.

I like this week's slate a little better. In particular, I like the Cardinals, Giants and Raiders (arguably the league's three worst teams besides the Bills), and I'm also on the Bills, Dolphins and Jets. I didn't set out to go so ugly, but it's where the lines took me.

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THURSDAY NIGHT

Dolphins +7.5 at Texans

Maybe the Texans defense is actually good, as they finally have full strength Jadeveon Clowney and J.J. Watt on the field at the same time. The Brock Osweiler-led Dolphins are traveling on the short week too and missing half their receiving corps. I set this line at seven, though, and as much as I hate to take the road dog on Thursday night, give me the Dolphins.

Texans 24 - 17

EARLY GAMES

Eagles -3 vs. Jaguars (London)

The Jaguars were terrible last week, and the Eagles imploded in the fourth quarter. I'd like to buy both these teams low, but I'll take the Jags getting the full field goal on a familiar field.

Eagles 17 - 16

Browns +8 at Steelers

I made this line 8.5, so I'm narrowly on the Steelers. I like fading teams off heartbreaking overtime losses, and Pittsburgh should be fresh out of the bye. Lay the wood.

Steelers 27 - 17

Broncos +10 at Chiefs

The Broncos are the one team that slowed down both the Chiefs and Rams this year. Case Keenum will have to avoid turnovers, but I made this line 9.5, so I'll take Denver at 10.

Chiefs 27 - 19

Jets +7 at Bears

The Jets got destroyed at home by the Vikings, and I don't like Sam Darnold in this spot, but I'm not entirely a believer in the Bears, so I'll hold my nose here and take the Jets.

Bears 24 - 20

Redskins -1 at Giants

I had this as Redskins plus three, but that was before the Giants gave away Eli Apple to the Saints for a late fourth round pick. Moreover, for whatever reason the Giants always seem to play better on the road than at home. Still, the Giants defense showed up in Atlanta last week, and the Redskins offense is terrible. Take the Giants.

Giants 23 - 20

Seahawks +3 at Lions

I made this three also as it was the obvious line between two roughly equal teams. I suppose I'll take the Seahawks off the bye, but it's a coin flip.

Seahawks 26 - 23

Buccaneers +4.5 at Bengals

The Bengals did not come to play in Kansas City, but this should be a get well game at home against the Bucs who are coming off a fortunate overtime win. Lay the wood.

Bengals 27 - 20

Ravens -2 at Panthers

I had this as a pick 'em, so I suppose I should be on the Panthers getting two, but I'm uneasy about it. Give me the Ravens.

Ravens 20 - 16

LATE GAMES

Colts -3 at Raiders

This is an easy buy-low, sell high. Not that it'll necessarily work, but the Colts are coming off a blowout win, and the Raiders blowout losses before the bye and are starting to sell off key players. Take Oakland.

Raiders 20 - 19

49ers pick 'em at Cardinals

I made this line three as both teams are bad, the Cardinals beat the 49ers in San Francisco a few weeks ago and Arizona fired Mike McCoy, something that should give them a lift by subtraction. Take the Cardinals.

Cardinals 20 - 17

Packers +9.5 at Rams

I made this line nine, and it's crept up to 9.5. That's not a key number, so I could go either way, but I suppose I'll back Aaron Rodgers as the biggest dog of his career. My main concern is Mike McCarthy blowing it with predictable play calling and not enough downfied throwing, but if the Packers were well coached, this line would probably be three points less. Take the Packers.

Rams 31 - 24

SUNDAY NIGHT

Saints pick 'em at Vikings

I made this line a pick 'em, and now the market has caught up with me. It's a coin flip for me, and I don't like that the Saints just played a grueling road game in Baltimore, but I like the revenge angle after the horrible way the Vikings knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Take New Orleans.

Saints 24 - 23

MONDAY NIGHT

Patriots -14 at Bills

I realize the Pats have hit their stride and the Bills are a doormat, but I have to take the points out of principle. Fourteen in Buffalo is like 20 in New England. Take the Bills.

Patriots 23 - 13

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Last week, I went 3-10-1 to put me at 55-48-4 on the year, lost my best bet, the Jaguars (3-4 overall), and went 1-4 in the Supercontest (18-16-1). Last year I went 117-125-14 on the season, 12-4-1 on best bets, 43-39-3 in the Supercontest. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,545-2,395 (51.5%), not including ties.