Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 17

Last week was mediocre as I went 7-6-3 overall, lost my best bet (49ers) and went 3-2 in the Supercontest.

This week, I picked a ton of favorites, something with which I'm not remotely comfortable. I was tempted to change the Ravens, Rams, Packers, Steelers, Texans and Chargers picks, but I held off. My method of setting lines before looking at the actual ones has worked well all year, and I'm not going soft now. There are two lines not yet on the board - the Seahawks-Cardinals and Panthers-Saints. Instead of making up a line like I have in the past, I predicted the score and will choose my side on that basis as soon as the line comes out.

I especially like the Chiefs this week, and I'm sure one or two others will come to me in the next few days.

As usual, I'll put my Supercontest picks in the comments.

For the podcast version of this article, click here

EARLY GAMES

Cowboys +6.5 at Giants

I made this line 7.5 because I don't think the Cowboys will play their starters for very long as they're locked into the No. 4 seed. The Giants seem to be trying in anticipation of next year, and I could see Saquon Barkley having a big game. Lay the wood.

Giants 24 - 16

Panthers +9* at Saints

I'd set this line as a pick 'em as the Saints have locked up home field advantage and have nothing for which to play, but the Panthers might be down to a third-string QB and are on the road. I'll make the score now, and what side I'm on will depend on where the line winds up later today or tomorrow. *No line initially, but now I'm obviously on the Panthers here.

Saints 17 - 16

Jets +13.5 at Patriots

I made this line 12, and I'm torn about it. On the one hand, I don't like taking the Jets off an overtime loss, the Patriots are much tougher at home and need the win to lock up the No. 2 seed. On the other, the Patriots are limited offensively, and Sam Darnold has played better of late. I'll take the points, though I could see a three-INT game from Darnold costing me the cover.

Patriots 27 - 17

Lions +7.5 at Packers

I made this line 9.5 as I expect the Packers to flex their muscles in the season finale at home even though they're probably not that much better than the Lions. Lay the wood.

Packers 31 - 21

Jaguars +7 at Texans

I made this line eight, as the Texans want this game for seeding purposes, and the Jaguars are not running an NFL offense. Take Houston.

Texans 24 - 13

Falcons +1 at Buccaneers

I made this a pick 'em as the Falcons are playing better of late, and the Bucs have morphed into a boring team that doesn't make big plays anymore. Take the point.

Falcons 24 - 23

Dolphins +3 at Bills

I made this line four, mostly due to a warm weather team having to finish up in a cold-weather venue. Take the Bills.

Bills 20 - 16

LATE GAMES

Raiders +13.5 at Chiefs

I made this line a ridiculous 17, which is probably too high, but the Chiefs have lost two in a row and need this game to lock up the top seed in the AFC. I think they go all out to win and generate confidence heading into the playoffs.

Chiefs 37 - 20

Eagles -6.5 at Redskins

I made this line eight as the Redskins don't have a real quarterback, their defense is in mutiny mode and the Eagles are rolling now with Nick Foles looking downfield. The Eagles can also earn a playoff spot if the Vikings lose to the Bears. Lay the wood.

Eagles 24 - 16

Browns +5.5 at Ravens

I wanted to take the Browns here because while the Ravens are a nasty team, Baker Mayfield is dangerous, and clinching a playoff spot against a game rival is often tough. So I made the line only six, but the market has moved it even lower. That puts me on the Ravens, but I don't feel strongly about it.

Ravens 23 - 17

Bengals +14 at Steelers

I set this line at 16.5 as the Steelers, who are much better at home, need to win to have any chance at a playoff spot, the Bengals have nothing on offense, and the defense has been weak all year. Lay the wood.

Steelers 31 - 13

Bears +5 at Vikings

The Bears can still get a first-round bye with a win and a Rams loss, so I'm presuming they'll go all out. Accordingly, I made this line three against a Vikings team that needs to win to lock up a playoff spot. Take the points.

Vikings 20 - 17

Chargers -6.5 at Broncos

I made this line minus seven as the Chargers still have slim hopes for the AFC's top seed (KC would need to lose at home to Oakland though), the Broncos have looked awful offensively without Emmanuel Sanders, and now they're without Phillip Lindsay too. Take the Chargers.

Chargers 24 - 17

Cardinals +13.5** at Seahawks

I made this line 10, but that assumed the Seahawks would try, which isn't a sure thing. Seattle is in the playpffs, but could fall from the No. 5 to the No. 6 seed with a loss, the difference likely being a game at Chicago (where they lost) instead of a game at the Cowboys (who they beat at home.) It's some motivation, though not much, and there's no line yet for this game. I'll pick the score, and the side I'm on will be clear once the line comes out. ** Obviously, I'm on the Cardinals with this line.

Seahawks 23 - 16

49ers +9.5 at Rams

I made this line 13.5, and that's obviously too big. The Niners have been scrappy of late and gave the Bears a tough game last week, and this is a division game between teams and coaches that know each other. But the Rams need this to lock up the No. 2 seed and seemed to find some rhythm against a weak Cardinals team last week. Back the Rams.

Rams 30 - 20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Colts -2.5 at Titans

I made this Colts minus three with Marcus Mariota banged up and always a threat to leave early, Jurrell Casey out and both teams needing a win for the final AFC playoff spot. Take the road favorite.

Colts 23 - 20

For the podcast version of this article, click here

Last week, I went 7-6-3 to put me at 130-101-9 on the year, lost my best bet, the 49ers (9-7 overall), and went 3-2 in the Supercontest (45-34-1). Last year I went 117-125-14 on the season, 12-4-1 on best bets, 43-39-3 in the Supercontest. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,545-2,395 (51.5%), not including ties.