This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Better late than never, but I finally a good week, going 11-5 and winning two of the three games I liked. That puts me at 17 games under .500, and while the season is still beyond salvage, I can mitigate some of the damage to my overall record with a good final week.
I feel especially good about the Giants and Titans (count both as best bets), and I also like the Bengals and Packers a little bit. Coin flips are: Bills-Jets, Saints-Falcons, Buccaneers-Panthers, Lions-Bears and Rams-49ers.
To hear the podcast version of this article, click here
EARLY GAMES
Jets -3 at Bills
The Jets are a good team, but laying points in a December game in Buffalo is a tall order. Take the home dog.
Jets 20 - 19
Patriots -10.5 at Dolphins
This is a monstrous line on the road, but it's the correct one. The Dolphins are beyond lost, and I don't expect them to rally for this game when they couldn't get it together for so many others. Take the Pats.
Patriots 30 - 10
Ravens +9 at Bengals
This is a lot of points for a team playing with its backup quarterback, but I like Cincinnati to bounce back at home against a weak defense. Lay the wood.
Bengals 27 - 13
Saints +4 at Falcons
This is a coin flip. I suppose I'll fade Drew Brees on the road and back Atlanta who has played better the last two games.
Falcons 24 - 19
Better late than never, but I finally a good week, going 11-5 and winning two of the three games I liked. That puts me at 17 games under .500, and while the season is still beyond salvage, I can mitigate some of the damage to my overall record with a good final week.
I feel especially good about the Giants and Titans (count both as best bets), and I also like the Bengals and Packers a little bit. Coin flips are: Bills-Jets, Saints-Falcons, Buccaneers-Panthers, Lions-Bears and Rams-49ers.
To hear the podcast version of this article, click here
EARLY GAMES
Jets -3 at Bills
The Jets are a good team, but laying points in a December game in Buffalo is a tall order. Take the home dog.
Jets 20 - 19
Patriots -10.5 at Dolphins
This is a monstrous line on the road, but it's the correct one. The Dolphins are beyond lost, and I don't expect them to rally for this game when they couldn't get it together for so many others. Take the Pats.
Patriots 30 - 10
Ravens +9 at Bengals
This is a lot of points for a team playing with its backup quarterback, but I like Cincinnati to bounce back at home against a weak defense. Lay the wood.
Bengals 27 - 13
Saints +4 at Falcons
This is a coin flip. I suppose I'll fade Drew Brees on the road and back Atlanta who has played better the last two games.
Falcons 24 - 19
Jaguars +6 at Texans
Brian Hoyer should be back, but I expect the Jaguars to hang around and even if they don't, a backdoor cover could very well be in play. Take the points.
Texans 24 - 21
Steelers -10.5 at Browns
I'd feel better about it if Johnny Manziel were playing, but this is a big line for a Steelers team that's struggled on the road and can't defend the pass. Take the Browns.
Steelers 27 - 17
Titans +6 at Colts
The Colts are deciding whether to start Josh Freeman, Stephen Morris or Ryan Lindley. There's no way they should be laying six points against anyone. Back Tennessee.
Titans 20 - 17
Redskins +3.5 at Cowboys
The Redskins are locked into the fourth seed and playing again next week, so I'd imagine they sit players in the second half. Take the Cowboys.
Cowboys 19 - 13
Lions +1 at Bears
The Lions have played better of late, and the Bears are missing their best outside weapon in Alshon Jeffery. I'll take the point.
Lions 24 - 20
Eagles +3 at Giants
The Chip Kelly firing could give Philly a bump, but this team seemed to have checked out for much of latter part of the season. The Giants get Odell Beckham back, and I expect them to show up for what's likely Tom Coughlin's final game. Lay the points.
Giants 34 - 10
LATE GAMES
Buccaneers +10.5 at Panthers
My first instinct was to take Carolina to bounce back at home now that it got the first loss out of its system, and I'll stick with it. Take the Panthers.
Panthers 27 - 16
Raiders +6.5 at Chiefs
The Raiders aren't a doormat, and the Chiefs have little to play for unless the Broncos are upset at home by the Chargers. I'll take the points.
Chiefs 20 - 16
Chargers +9 at Broncos
The Chargers have shown up the last few weeks, but the Broncos are playing for a first-round bye, and Brock Osweiler should move the ball against San Diego's defense. Take Denver.
Broncos 24 - 10
Rams -3.5 at 49ers
The Rams have been much better of late, but in a game like this I'll hold my nose and take the home dog. Back the Niners.
Rams 16 - 13
Seahawks +6.5 at Cardinals
If the Seahawks decide to try - and as of Wednesday night there's no indication they won't - this line is too big. The Cardinals are still playing for the top seed, but extra incentive doesn't necessarily make teams play extra well. Back Seattle.
Cardinals 23 - 20
SUNDAY NIGHT
Vikings +3 at Packers
Based on recent performance, the Vikings would be a value here, but I like the Packers to bounce back in Green Bay against a team they beat pretty easily on the road. Back the Packers.
Packers 23 - 17
I went 11-5 in Week 16 to bring my record to 108-125-7 on the year. I'm 7-8-2 on best bets. I went 135-116-5 in 2014, and best bets were 18-12-1. From 1999-2014, I've gone 2,068-1,880 (52.4%), not including ties.
