This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week was especially brutal -- I went 5-10-1 ATS, lost my best bet horrendously (Rams) and went 0-5 in the Super Contest. Not much I can say about that except I could have been 6-9, but for the Eagles getting a fumble-return TD on the last play.
This week, I especially like the Ravens, the 49ers. Be sure to fade me on the Chargers (I took the Raiders.)
For the podcast version of the article click here.
SATURDAY GAMES
Texans -3 at Buccaneers
I made this line plus 2.5, so I'm on the Bucs, but when I saw how far off I was I realized I hadn't considered the effect of both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin being out. Even so, three on the road is too far. Take the points.
Texans 26 - 24
Bills +6.5 at Patriots
I made this line four -- these would be equal teams if only Tom Brady could scramble like Josh Allen and had a deep threat like John Brown. The main thing that worries me is the Foxborough/Belichick magic/cheating. Somehow, I'll lose this on a blocked punt or pick six. Barring that, I'll take the points.
Bills 20 - 19
Rams +6.5 at 49ers
I made this line eight -- the 49ers had a letdown last week, but the Rams are done, and this is a tough follow-up to the Dallas debacle on the road. I've been wrong about the Rams before, but at less than seven, I'm laying the wood.
49ers 27 - 17
EARLY GAMES
Jaguars +7 at Falcons
I made this 6.5, so with the full TD, I'm on the Jaguars. Atlanta's had some good games, but I could see Jacksonville hanging around. Take the points.
Falcons 27 - 23
Saints -3 at Titans
The Saints looked great on Monday night, but the Titans are a tough, physical team at home with its back to the wall. I'd feel better of Derrick Henry were 100 percent, but I'll take the points.
Saints 27 - 26
Giants +2.5 at Redskins
A couple games off was probably good for Danny Dollars. Dwayne Haskins hasn't been terrible of late, either, but I'll take the points in this massive draft position battle.
Giants 26 - 23
Steelers -3 at Jets
The Steelers played the hand they were dealt about as well as humanly possible, but Devlin Hodges doesn't have it, and the Jets are actually tough against the run. Take the home dog off extra rest.
Jets 20 - 19
Bengals +1 at Dolphins
I'm not sure why this isn't the full three -- both teams are about equally bad. I'll lay the point.
Dolphins 27 - 24
Panthers +7 at Colts
I made this line 5.5. The Panthers are starting Will Grier, but the Colts are starting Jacoby Brissett and what's left of his receiving corps. Take the points.
Colts 24 - 20
Ravens -10 at Browns
I made this line 10.5, and I'm awfully glad the market didn't push me to Cleveland. The Ravens need this game to wrap up home field advantage for the playoffs, they lost at home to the Browns earlier this year, the Browns are missing their best player and seem inches away from a full-scale mutiny against their inept coach. Lay the wood.
Ravens 37 - 17
LATE GAMES
Lions +6.5 at Broncos
The Broncos aren't great, but I like them to crush a weak Lions team at home in what could be a bad weather game. Lay the wood.
Broncos 23 - 9
Raiders +6.5 at Chargers
I'm always wrong on the Chargers, but I made this line only six, so I'm taking the Raiders by a slim margin.
Chargers 27 - 23
Cowboys -2.5 at Eagles
I was dead wrong about the Cowboys last week, but I'm fading them again here. There's no doubt their players are far better than the Eagles', and they killed them in Dallas the first time they matched up, but my line was only Cowboys minus 1.5, so I'm narrowly on Philly (who's terrible, incidentally.)
Cowboys 24 - 23
Cardinals +9.5 at Seahawks
I made this line only nine -- the Seahawks should light up a bad Arizona defense, but Seattle has defensive injuries of its own, and Kyler Murray might do a decent Russell Wilson impersonation this week. Take the points.
Seahawks 31 - 27
SUNDAY NIGHT
Chiefs -5 at Bears
I made this line three -- the Chiefs are playing well on both sides of the ball of late, but this is a tough road game against a non-doormat in what could be bad weather. The Chiefs aren't strangers to bad weather, but it could ugly up the offense for both sides, a clear advantage to the Bears whose offense is already ugly. Take the points.
Chiefs 23 - 20
MONDAY NIGHT
Packers +4.5 at Vikings
The Vikings are the better team, but that's reflected in the line, and I'll go with the rivalry and the familiarity keeping it close. Take the points.
Packers 26 - 23
For the podcast version of the article click here.
Last week, I went 5-10-1, lost my best bet (the Rams), and went 0-5 in the Super Contest. I'm now 106-113-5 on the year, 7-8 on best bets and 35-38-2 in the Super Contest. Last year I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2018, I've gone 2,563-2,373 (51.9%), not including ties.
