Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 16

Last week was solid as I went 11-4-1 overall, won my best bet (Colts) and went 4-1 in the Supercontest. Unfortunately, I flat-out gave away the Giants-Titans game which I knew was a bad pick.

This week, I especially like the Ravens and 49ers, and the value seems good on the Redskins and Cardinals. I also like the Eagles a bit.

As usual, I'll put my Supercontest picks in the comments.

For the podcast version of this article, click here

SATURDAY GAMES

Redskins +10 at Titans

I thought this line would be 6.5, and I made it 5.5, so I was shocked to see it at 10. These are both teams that like to run the ball and play defense - hence the low total (37). Take the points.

Titans 20 - 16

Ravens +4.5 at Chargers

The Chargers are the better team, but they have little home field advantage, and the Ravens play a mean, nasty '70s-style football that keeps games close. The upgrade from Joe Flacco to Lamar Jackson has been significant too. Take the points.

Ravens 23 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Buccaneers +7 at Cowboys

I made this line 7.5, so I'm on the Cowboys, but I don't feel strongly about it. Dallas is a good team, especially at home, but they play at a slow pace which makes it hard to cover big spreads, and the Bucs defense has quietly shown up the last half of the season.

Cowboys 28 - 20

Bills +12.5 at Patriots

On a pure value basis, this line should be 9.5 or 10, as the Patriots aren't that good this year, and the Bills have a decent defense. But I made this line 13.5 because the Patriots are so much better at home, and coming off two losses, I expected them to have a "get right" game. Lay the wood.

Patriots 30 - 17

Falcons +2.5 at Panthers

Cam Newton doesn't look right to me, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers shut him down. I don't like the Falcons on the road, but I'm taking the points.

Falcons 23 - 20

Jaguars +4.5 at Dolphins

I don't feel strongly about this game, but I made the line 5.5, so I stick with the Dolphins. Ryan Tannehill isn't good, but he's probably better than Cody Kessler, and the Dolphins have been better at home this year. Lay the wood.

Dolphins 19 - 13

Giants +9.5 at Colts

The Giants were awful last week against the Titans, and Odell Beckham's status is still up in the air, but this is a good buy-low, sell-high. The Colts are much better and at home, but I made this line 7.5, and 9.5 is too high. Take the points.

Colts 27 - 19

Texans +2 at Eagles

I had left the Eagles for dead, but Nick Foles threw the ball downfield to Alshon Jeffery rather than dink and dunking like Carson Wentz had all year, and the offense showed signs of life. The Texans have burned me all year, but I still think they're a fraud - I made this line 3.5 - so give me the Eagles.

Eagles 24 - 20

Vikings -5.5 at Lions

I wanted to take the Vikings who again have a top-three defense, but their offensive line isn't good, and this is too many points for them to lay on the road against a division rival that has shown up the last two weeks. Take the points.

Vikings 23 - 19

Packers pick 'em at Jets

This obviously hinges on whether Aaron Roders is playing. If so, I made the line Packers minus 2.5. If not, it would have to be Packers plus five or so with DeShone Kizer. Logic says take the Jets, but indications - as of Wednesday morning - are that Rodgers is likely to play, and I have a Packers feeling.

Packers 24 - 23

Bengals +8 at Browns

This is annoying because I made the line 7.5, and when I first looked it was seven, so I was on the Browns. But now it's moved up to eight, so I'm on the Bengals. I don't want to be on the Bengals, but it's important to remember that you bet the number, not the team. Take the points.

Browns 26 - 19

LATE GAMES

Rams -14 at Cardinals

This one blew my mind. I made the line Rams minus 6.5 and guessed it would be eight. The Cardinals are terrible, so the Rams could easily win 34-0 again, and sometimes the seemingly absurd numbers turn out to be right. But if that's the case, I'll just have to take the L. Back the Cardinals as massive home dogs.

Rams 28 - 20

Bears -4 at 49ers

I made this line a pick 'em. Not only is Nick Mullens playing well, but the Bears are coming off a cathartic win over their nemesis and have locked up the NFC North. Take the points.

49ers 20 - 19

Steelers +5.5 at Saints

I see these as roughly equal teams, but I made the line 4.5 to reflect the Saints' particular home field advantage and that the Steelers have been worse on the road. So I don't feel strongly about it, but I'll take the points.

Saints 27 - 23

SUNDAY NIGHT

Chiefs -2.5 at Seahawks

This is exactly where I set the line, but I'll fade the Chiefs off a heartbreaking loss to a division rival and having to travel to a hostile environment against a good team. Take the points.

Seahawks 31 - 30

MONDAY NIGHT

Broncos -2.5 at Raiders

I made this line 3.5, and while the "last game at the Oakland Coliseum" narrative gives me some pause, this is a good spot for the Broncos to take out their frustrations after they squandered any playoff hopes the last two weeks. Lay the wood.

Broncos 26 - 20

For the podcast version of this article, click here

Last week, I went 11-4-1 to put me at 123-95-6 on the year, won my best bet, the Chargers (9-6 overall), and went 4-1 in the Supercontest (42-32-1). Last year I went 117-125-14 on the season, 12-4-1 on best bets, 43-39-3 in the Supercontest. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,545-2,395 (51.5%), not including ties.