Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 10

Last week was okay. I went 7-6 and won my best bet, the Falcons, decisively, but I went 2-3 in the Supercontest, and that entry is now toast. (The leader is a ridiculous 36-9 ATS, 12.5 games ahead of us.) It's still useful to track our best five (I partner with Dalton Del Don on it), and there's a prize for doing well in the last several weeks, so I'll keep posting them in the comments.

This week, none of the actual lines differed by more than two points from the ones I set, so my leans aren't especially strong.

The ones that came easiest to me were the Redskins, Bills and Lions.

For the podcast version of this article, click here

THURSDAY NIGHT

Panthers +4 at Steelers

These strike me as roughly equal teams. Usually, I like the home team off the short week, but it's the same time zone and only a short trip. Take the points.

Panthers 23 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Bills +7.5 at Jets

I was on the Bills last week to disastrous effect, but Derek Anderson could be back, and that would mean a pick six is merely possible rather than guaranteed. Either way, the Jets have no business laying 7.5 against a fairly stout defense. Take the points.

Jets 10 - 6

Falcons -4 at Browns

I really want to take the Falcons here, but I'm going to resist. This is an outdoor, cold-weather road game, and the Browns have a chance to keep it close against that defense. Take the points.

Falcons 24 - 21

Saints -4.5 at Bengals

I hate taking the Bengals here, but like the Browns, I think they're the right play given the conditions and setup. Moreover, the Saints just beat the last undefeated team and seized the top seed in the NFC should the standings hold, i.e., this is a natural letdown spot. A.J. Green's absence is big, but I think the Bengals keep it close enough.

Saints 27 - 24

Redskins +3 at Buccaneers

The Redskins offense is bad, but so is the Bucs' defense, and Ryan Fitzpatrick will make more mistakes than Alex Smith. Take the points here.

Redskins 26 - 23

Patriots -6.5 at Titans

I had a hard time with this one. I set the line at six, but only feel comfortable on the Titans at seven, and even then you usually pay when going against the Patriots. Marcus Mariota looked better last week, and the defense stepped up in the second half, but it's a short week and the Patriots are starting to peak. I guess I'll hold my nose and take the home dog.

Patriots 27 - 23

Jaguars +3 at Colts

I knew the line would be three, and I'm laying the points, but I don't feel great about it. Andrew Luck looks good of late, but as Jeff Erickson pointed out, the Colts' last two wins were over the Bills and Raiders.

Colts 23 - 19

Lions +6.5 at Bears

The Lions looked awful in Minnesota last week, so that makes them a good buy-low here against a Bears team that's still running a gimmick offense. Take the points.

Lions 24 - 23

Cardinals +16.5 at Chiefs

Believe it or not, this is exactly where I set the line, so it's a tough call. The right play in these spots is usually to go ugly, so that's what I'll do. Keep it mind it might be 31-3 in the second quarter, but that's just the risk you run when taking the double-digit dog.

Chiefs 33 - 17

LATE GAMES

Chargers -10 at Raiders

No doubt this is the sucker side, but I'm laying the forest here. I set this line at 11.5 as the Raiders are bad on both sides of the ball, while the Chargers are closer to the elite (Chiefs, Saints, Rams, Patriots) than they are to the next tier down.

Chargers 27 - 13

Seahawks +10 at Rams

The Seahawks are a solid team, and they played the Rams tough in Seattle, but I expect the Rams to play better at home, now that Cooper Kupp is back. Seattle won't be able to run the ball (six yards per carry) like they did in the first game, and I don't think they have the receivers to keep up. Lay the wood.

Rams 34 - 20

Dolphins +9.5 at Packers

I made this line 10.5 as the Packers tend to crush bad teams at home, but I've lost respect for the team and organization. Aaron Rodgers is forcing passes through ever-shrinking windows as no one on the team can get open, and Mike McCarthy's vanilla schemes and predictable play calling are making things worse. The Dolphins are such a random performance generator it's impossible to know what they'll do, but I'll lay the wood here.

Packers 31 - 17

SUNDAY NIGHT

Cowboys +6.5 at Eagles

This is exactly where I set the line, which makes it a tough call. The Cowboys are good everywhere except QB and head coach. The Eagles are at home, coming off a bye and have a great QB and coach. I want to root for the Eagles, but in my heart of hearts I think the Cowboys are the value. Take the points.

Eagles 24 - 20

MONDAY NIGHT

Giants +3 at 49ers

These are equally bad teams, so this line is about right. I'll sell high off the blowout win over the Raiders and take the points.

Giants 24 - 23

For the podcast version of this article, click here

Last week, I went 7-6 to put me at 68-62-4 on the year, won my best bet, the Falcons (5-4 overall), and went 2-3 in the Supercontest (23-21-1). Last year I went 117-125-14 on the season, 12-4-1 on best bets, 43-39-3 in the Supercontest. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,545-2,395 (51.5%), not including ties.