This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week was solid as I went 11-5 overall, won my best bet (Chiefs) and went 3-2 in the Supercontest. I finished the year 141-106-9, my best showing since 2000, though my best bets (10-7) were nothing special and we did not cash in the Supercontest (48-36-1.)
This week, I especially like the Ravens, and if I had to pick a second team I'd go with the Bears. The Saturday games were tougher for me.
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SATURDAY GAMES
Colts +2 at Texans
I made this line an even three as I see these as roughly equal teams. The Texans aren't anything special, but they're at home, T.Y. Hilton's banged up and the Colts had to win to get into the playoffs Sunday night, making this an especially short week for them. Take the Texans.
Texans 23 - 20
Seahawks +2 at Cowboys
I set this line at 2.5 as I think the Seahawks are ever-so-slightly better than the Cowboys, given their coaching and QB advantages. I also like that this is a night game, something that actually favors the west coast team. But given my number, I should be on the Cowboys as the public not only isn't making this line three, but went another half point down to two. The difference is fairly negligible, but I'll stick to my process and take Dallas. The home field should matter, and the Cowboys pass rush will get to Russell Wilson.
Cowboys 26 - 23
SUNDAY GAMES
Chargers +2.5 at Ravens
The Ravens barely squeaked into the playoffs by knocking off the Browns, but the Browns were a dangerous team, and the Ravens are still a nightmare to play against, given their ability to bludgeon opposing defenses with the run and play defense. The Chargers were the better team for most of the year, but Philip Rivers hasn't had great protection of late, and I don't usually like a west coast team traveling east for an early game. (I made this line 3.5.) Take the Ravens.
Ravens 24 - 17
Eagles +6 at Bears
I'll be rooting for Nick Foles and the Eagles to see if they can make another improbable run, but I set this line at 6.5 as Chicago is a nasty place to play in January, and the Bears defense might be the best in the league. Lay the wood.
Bears 23 - 16
For the podcast version of this article, click here
Last week, I went 11-5 to put me at 141-106-9 on the year, won my best bet, the Chiefs (10-7 overall), and went 3-2 in the Supercontest (48-36-1). Last year I went 117-125-14 on the season, 12-4-1 on best bets, 43-39-3 in the Supercontest. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,545-2,395 (51.5%), not including ties.
