Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps the Conference Title Games

I went 2-2 last week, winning my best bet (Chiefs), and putting my playoff record at 2-5-1.

This week, my leans aren't especially strong, but I made up my mind fairly quickly about both. I'll pick a best bet between the two in the Staff Picks.

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Rams +3.5 at Saints

Neither team has looked like a powerhouse of late, with the Rams peaking early in the year and the Saints at midseason. Still, they were the top two teams in the conference wire to wire in terms of record and net points.

The Saints won the first meeting 45-35 in New Orleans, sealing it with a 72-yard TD to Michael Thomas. But the Rams were missing cornerback Aqib Talib that game, so Thomas should face tougher coverage, especially as New Orleans hasn't developed a reliable secondary or tertiary target since. Both teams can run the ball well, but only the Saints have been good at stopping the run - at least until last week when the Rams shut down Ezekiel Elliott.

Bottom line, these do not strike me as particularly strong conference finalists, but the Rams offense has been a little more dynamic of late, and their pass rush and improved secondary should be enough to keep it close at least and possibly win outright. Take the Rams.

Rams 27 - 24

Patriots +3 at Chiefs

Last week the Patriots had every conceivable advantage - early-body-clock game against a west coast team, cold weather against a warm weather team, home field advantage against a team playing its third straight game on the road, an east-coast venue against a team traveling all the way from California for the second straight week and an extra week of rest against a team that had just played against a physical opponent. All those are gone this week as they travel to Arrowhead to play the Chiefs, who actually have an extra day of rest, home field advantage and familiarity with cold weather.

The weather is expected to be exceptionally cold - with an "arctic snap" purported to descend south into the area, though the temperature forecasts have been revised upwards to roughly 15-20 degrees from the single digits. The more weather plays a factor, the better it is for the Patriots who are more of a power than finesse team at this point. Moreover, Patrick Mahomes has small hands for a quarterback, something that could make gripping the ball more difficult in frigid conditions.

Assuming the weather is merely chilly and not frigid, the Chiefs have a massive advantage in the passing game with Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and now even Sammy Watkins ostensibly healthy. Hill is arguably the fastest player in the league, and Kelce its most unguardable tight end, now that Rob Gronkowski is mostly being used as a blocker. I expect the Patriots to throw all their resources at Hill and Kelce and let running back Damien Williams have plenty of space to work with the aim of mitigating big plays and forcing the Chiefs to drive the length of the field mistake-free.

On offense, I'd expect the Patriots to do more of what we saw last week - bludgeoning the Chiefs soft front with Sony Michel and getting the ball out of Tom Brady's hands quickly to Julian Edelman and James White. Of course, Chiefs coach Andy Reid knows this, and I'd expect him to dedicate extra resources to the short areas of the field, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Brady take a deep shot or two to Chris Hogan or Phillip Dorsett early.

Bottom line, no one is better than the Patriots at taking away their opponents' best weapons and playing the game on their terms, but barring weather conditions playing a major factor, I expect Mahomes and the Chiefs receivers to make enough plays to win and cover at home. Lay the wood.

Chiefs 31 - 27

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Last week, I went 2-2 in the Divisonal Round, putting my playoff record at 2-5-1. I was 141-106-9 on the regular season and 48-36-1 in the Supercontest. From 1999-2018, I've gone 2,686-2,501 (51.8%), not including ties.