Beating the Book: NFL Week 15 Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Welcome to the NFL Week 15 edition of Beating the Book, where we give you NFL ATS picks for every game, every week.

After a strong first half of the season, we've been mired in a simply horrendous run of picks over the last few weeks. No two ways about it. Week 14 was much the same, as we were burned by the hook in three games on Sunday before capping off the week with, fittingly, an agonizing Eagles (-2.5) loss to the Chargers.

That Monday night game was a strong encapsulation of how these last several weeks have felt, but we still have four more weeks of full, 16-game schedules to make some hay before the postseason. 

As we look ahead to Week 15, the slate begins with an NFC South matchup on Thursday night between the struggling Buccaneers and the even-more-struggling Falcons, with Tampa Bay sitting as a 4.5-point favorite. The Sunday slate packs plenty of intrigue, headlined by Ravens-Bengals, Chargers-Chiefs and Bills-Patriots, followed by Packers-Broncos and Lions-Rams in a much-needed five-game late window.

As of publication, four games carry a double-digit spread, led by Colts-Seahawks with Seattle giving two touchdowns to… possibly Philip Rivers? Meanwhile, six games carry a spread of a field goal or less, including that Bills-Pats showdown in Foxboro – currently our tightest-lined game of the week.

You can find my thoughts and score predictions on each of those games, and the entire NFL Week 15 slate, below. As always, our best bet of the week will be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 14:

• Texans +3.5 at Chiefs: I've lost a lot of money betting the Chiefs to get their act together, but with the number sitting at 3.5 this had to be a Houston spot.
• Titans +4.5 at Browns: The Titans are a very bad football team, but the Browns' inability to stop the run ultimately turned this into a mini-blowout until Cleveland's late rally.

Worst calls of Week 14:

• Jets +3.0 vs. Dolphins: Our ability to mistime the market on the Jets each week continues to baffle the world's foremost mathematicians.
• Cardinals +8.5 vs. Rams: At no point was the final result of this game in question.

Last week: 4-10 ATS; 7-7 SU; best bet lost (CHI +6.5)

On the season: 99-104-5 ATS; 133-75-1 SU; 6-8 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

NFL Picks for Week 15

Thursday Night Football

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Bucs -4.0

Total: 44.0

After a 6-2 start, the Bucs have now dropped four of their last five and failed to cover all five of those games. Losing at home to the Saints means you can lose to anyone, but welcoming Kirk Cousins down to Tampa – for a third consecutive home game – may be the bounceback spot the Bucs desperately need.

In more good news, it looks as though Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan will both return on Thursday night, bringing reinforcements to a receiving corps that's mostly struggled amid a two-month slump for Emeka Egbuka.

Atlanta's defense still has enough talent to make this uncomfortable, but with no Drake London (again), we'll side with the Bucs to contain Bijan Robinson and cover for the first time since October.

The pick: Buccaneers 26 – Falcons 20

Sunday Early Slate

Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears

Spread: Bears -7.5

Total: 39.5

Tricky game with a tricky number as the Bears look to bounce back from their first loss since Week 8. Even in defeat, the Bears proved for the second week in a row that they deserve a seat at the table in the NFC, even if most of their 9-4 record was built on the back of a favorable schedule.

The absence of Rome Odunze could be an issue against a formidable Cleveland defense, but the Browns' inability to hold up against Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears does not bode well for a matchup against a Bears team that ranks second in the NFL in EPA per rush.

Shedeur Sanders is coming off of easily his best game, but he still threw a killer interception and could be facing a major mismatch against the NFL's top turnover defense. Beyond that, the Browns' offensive line is in shambles and could be down as many as four regular starters.

Cleveland is a tempting underdog play at 7.5, but I like Chicago to control this game defensively and on the ground. The forecast, by the way, is calling for 8-degree temperatures at kickoff on Sunday.

The pick: Bears 23 – Browns 14

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Ravens -2.5

Total: 51.5

I know Commanders-Giants is sitting there staring at us, but we're going to go ahead and make this the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week. I would love to say I trust the Ravens to avenge that Thanksgiving Night loss at home to Cincy, but this team is impossible to bank on right now.

We liked the Ravens to win and cover against Pittsburgh last week – again, at home – and while they probably should have won straight up, they never deserved to cover that game after falling behind 17-3 midway through the second quarter.

Baltimore is showing signs of competency on offense, but Lamar Jackson is still making too many mistakes, and the Ravens have turned into one of the league's worst red zone offenses (30th in conversion rate). This should be a spot where Baltimore can ride Derrick Henry against the NFL's worst defense, but Cincinnati proved again last week that with Joe Burrow back, they can go score-for-score.

The pick: Ravens 31 – Bengals 30

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans

Spread: Texans -10.0

Total: 41.5

Since covering three in a row against Indy, Green Bay and Dallas, the Cardinals have fallen off of a cliff, losing five in a row and covering only one of those games (vs. TB in Week 13). That sample includes three blowouts against Seattle, San Francisco and the Rams, and the stage could be set for another of those against what may be the best defense in football.

Houston has now ripped off five straight wins behind that defense, most recently taking down the Chiefs at Arrowhead on Sunday night. The Texans' offense hasn't exactly been firing on all cylinders, but it's done just enough to reward a defense that's allowed 10, 16, 19 and 13 points over the last four games.

Arizona, meanwhile, just gave up 530 yards of offense to the Rams and has surrendered at least 40 points in three of its last five games. I'm not sure Houston has the firepower to turn this into a true laugher, but the idea of Jacoby Brissett throwing the ball 40-plus times against Derek Stingley and Co. is daunting, to say the least.

This absolutely feels like a "wrong side no matter what" game, but we'll side with Arizona to cover what feels like a slightly inflated number.

The pick: Texans 24 – Cardinals 17

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Jags -13.5

Total: 41.5

We have so much up in the air right now with the Jets, who could be down to their third-string quarterback, Brady Cook, this week. In addition to Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields remaining on the injury report, Breece Hall also did not practice on Wednesday. It goes without saying that the Jets could be extremely shorthanded going up against what's developed into one of the best defenses in the NFL. 

Jacksonville took advantage of an injury to Daniel Jones to hold Indy to 285 yards of total offense last week, forcing three turnovers and limiting Jonathan Taylor to just 74 yards on 21 carries. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence played one of the best games of his career in the rain. 

The Jets completely laid an egg at home last week against Miami, managing just 207 yards of offense and going 2-of-14 on third and fourth down. A punt return accounted for their only touchdown of the day. Here is the Jets' Week 14 drive chart (NSFW):

3-and-out punt; Interception; 3-and-out punt; 3-and-out punt; 3-and-out punt; interception; 5-and-out punt; 4-and-out punt; 12-play field goal; out on downs; interception. 

Seeing the Jags laying a number like this is incredibly uncomfortable, but given the state of the Jets' roster, it's fully understandable. We like the Jags to win outright, but the Jets can find a way to backdoor cover a bloated number.

The pick: Jaguars 27 – Jets 14

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -5.5

Total: 41.5

The downfall of the Chiefs has been shocking to watch, especially after it appeared they'd turned a corner, offensively, midseason. Instead, KC has gone on to lose four of its last five games, with the only win in that span coming in overtime against the Colts. The Chiefs did move the ball effectively on Dallas, but outside of that game it's been a complete slog marred by failed third and fourth downs, as well as uncharacteristic turnovers.

Last week's loss to Houston certainly felt like the final nail in the coffin, but the Chiefs are technically still alive for a playoff spot. While we've been saying it for weeks, this is actually a must-win game for Kansas City if they have any hopes of somehow grabbing a Wild Card spot.

The team they're perhaps most likely to catch would be the Chargers, who already have a straight-up win over KC but do face a difficult remaining schedule that includes matchups against Dallas, Houston and Denver over the final three weeks. It's not inconceivable that the Chargers, of all teams, could choke their lead away, but a win this week would go a long way toward avoiding any ghosts of Chargering past.

I really don't trust either offense in this matchup, and it's a difficult spot for the Chargers going on the road after an overtime Monday night game. LA's offensive line against the Chiefs' defensive line may be the biggest mismatch on the field.

It's really, really difficult to trust the Chiefs with anything over 2.5 right now, but we'll buy back in on the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes to bounce back from what was easily the worst game of his NFL career.

The pick: Chiefs 23 – Chargers 20

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Spread: Bills -1.5

Total: 49.5

Massive game for both teams in the AFC playoff race. Neither New England nor Denver has ceded any ground in the chase for the 1-seed, but this could be the week where we finally get some separation at the top. The Bills, meanwhile, currently occupy the 6-seed in the AFC but are only 1.0 game up on Houston with the Texans owning the head-to-head tiebreaker.

A Bills win would also pull them just 1.0 game behind the Pats, who play at Baltimore next week before finishing out with divisional games against the Jets and Dolphins. Buffalo would need some unlikely help, but winning the AFC East is not completely off the table.

Anyway, this is obviously one of the games of the week and one of the more difficult to evaluate. There's no doubt New England's schedule has played a role in its 10-game winning streak, but there's something to be said for simply not getting tripped up in 10 consecutive NFL games – regardless of opponent. The Pats do, of course, hold a head-to-head win over Buffalo, back in Week 5, during that streak.

The Bills have certainly looked like the shakier team for most of the year, but they've played a more difficult schedule and still have the best quarterback in football. Sloppy mistakes on offense have been an issue of late – 12 turnovers over the last five games; 3 in that Week 5 loss to NE – but if the Bills can clean those up, this could be a game in which they remind us why they still have shorter Super Bowl odds than the Pats.

The pick: Bills 30 – Patriots 27

Washington Commanders at New York Giants

Spread: Giants -2.5

Total: 46.5

Not much to say here. The Commanders have ruled out Jayden Daniels, so we'll see Marcus Mariota against Jaxson Dart this week. Coming out of a bye, the Giants will be looking to bounce back from a flat-out embarrassing performance against the Pats in Week 13, while the Commanders, themselves, are coming off of a 31-0 beatdown at the hands of the Vikings.

This is, of course, in stay-away territory with both teams liable to no-show in any given week. If Mariota can channel the version of himself we saw in Denver, then Washington can win outright. But the Commanders' defense is a complete mess right now, and if the Giants are willing to unleash Dart, the Giants are the side.

The pick: Giants 26 – Commanders 23

Las Vegas Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -10.5

Total: 37.5

We mentioned it in the intro, but the Eagles' loss to the Chargers was a dagger to heart to cap off a simply brutal week. At no point did the Eagles deserve to win that game, but if Jalen Hurts commits even four turnovers, instead of five, Philly probably finds away to escape. Nevertheless, Hurts played the worst game of his career at the worst time, canceling out what was an incredible performance by the Eagles' defense.

Hurts wasn't the only culpable party, though, as A.J. Brown had two key drops, Devonta Smith had another, the offensive line committed some killer penalties, and Jake Elliott missed a 48-yard field goal just before half to cement an all-around nightmare game.

Like the Ravens and Chiefs, it's extremely difficult to put any faith in the Eagles right now. Hurts looks broken, the running game is unreliable, and they seem to have completely lost their identity. With that said, if there's a team you want to see on the schedule right now, it's probably the Las Vegas Raiders, losers of seven in a row and 11 of their last 12. To Vegas' credit, they've kept games close against Denver (twice) and Jacksonville – and they'll always have that Week 1 win over the Pats in the bank – but there's a case to be made that this is the worst team in the NFL right now.

On top of that, it appears as though Geno Smith won't be available, which means we get Super Bowl Champion Kenny Pickett going up against his former team.

Frankly, I'm not sure Pickett is much of a downgrade at this point, but the Raiders' offense with a backup quarterback going up against the Philly defense is a monumental mismatch. I hate this pick with every bone in my body, but we're riding with another favorite.

The pick: Eagles 27 – Raiders 14

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos

Spread: Packers -2.5

Total: 43.5

First of all, thank you to the NFL schedule-makers for giving us five games in the late window for the first time this season. No longer will we only have to focus on one quality game while the Rams blow out a team by 30 and the Raiders score 10 points on the other two screens.

Anyway, this is one of several bangers on the Week 15 slate, pitting the 9-3-1 Packers against the 11-2 Broncos. Like New England, Denver hasn't been tripped up since Week 3, and the Broncos' resume includes wins over the Eagles, Cowboys, Texans and Chiefs. On balance, though, Denver has cleaned up against inferior quarterbacks and hasn't done so in overly convincing fashion. Nine of Denver's 11 wins overall have come by one score and seven of their last 10 have come by four points or less. The Broncos are just 1-6 ATS as a favorite of at least 6.0 points this season.

On the other side, Green Bay has won four in a row and is coming off of back-to-back wins over the Lions and Bears to take over first place in the NFC North. Jordan Love continues to lead all quarterbacks in EPA, but this will be among the stiffest tests of the season for the Packers' offense, which managed just 17 total points in losses to the Eagles and Browns – two strong defensive teams – earlier this season.

While Green Bay has found success taking shots down the field in recent weeks, doing so against Patrick Surtain and Co. will be a much more difficult task. The Packers feel like the better team right now, but with the game being played in Denver, we'll side with the Broncos to cover the 2.5 as a home dog. The U43.5 is my favorite play here.

The pick: Packers 21 – Broncos 20

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Rams -6.0

Total: 54.5

Detroit got a much-needed win over Dallas on Thursday night and is now in position to control its own destiny with one game against the 9-4 Bears remaining in Week 18. In order to feel good about getting to that point, though, the Lions may have to win the toughest game on their entire schedule this week.

Playing on Thursday does mean Detroit gets a rest advantage, but making the trip to LA to face the only team in the NFL in the top five in offensive and defensive EPA will be a difficult task. The Rams certainly looked the part of a No. 1 seed last week against Arizona, piling up 45 points, 530 yards of offense and 7.9 yards per play in an easy win. But they are just two weeks removed from a shocking loss to Carolina and were tripped up by the Niners and Eagles earlier in the season.

Injuries in the secondary remain a major concern for the Lions, but if the defense can find a way to force a turnover or two, the Lions have the firepower to go score-for-score with LA.

The pick: Rams 34 – Lions 30

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Panthers -3.0

Total: 40.5

Are the Panthers good? I'm still not sure. Some people are saying they are. Others are saying they're not. Either way, they've put together one of the more confusing resumes in recent memory: 

• Lost to the Saints and Cardinals
• Blown out by the Jags, Patriots and Bills
• Beat the Rams, Packers and Cowboys
• Blew out the Falcons 30-0* (*when we thought the Falcons might be good)

Fittingly, the Panthers have alternated wins and losses over their last seven games, making them one of the most difficult teams to read this season. When you think they're going to show up, they don't. When you write them off, they beat one of the best teams in the NFL as a double-digit underdog.

This week, Carolina gets an opportunity to avenge maybe the biggest black mark on that resume – a 17-7 loss to the Saints, at home, back in Week 10. In that game, Carolina tallied just 175 yards of offense while giving up 388 to the Saints. As last week proved, the Saints are still very much a frisky team, and they're riding some positive momentum into this rematch.

Hand up, I have no idea which version of the Panthers is going to show up. If it's the Rams/Packers/Falcons version, they probably win comfortably. If not, then New Orleans probably wins outright.

If nothing else, I do have faith in both defenses, so I think we get a lower-scoring game that will likely come down to the final few possessions. Key stops on third and fourth down carried the Saints to a win last week, but I'm not sure they can count on that being the case against a Panthers team that's 21-of-30 (70%) converting fourth downs this season.

We'll ultimately side with New Orleans to cover the field goal at home. Something to consider: Carolina has failed to win -- not cover, win -- 11 games in a row as a favorite -- easily the longest streak in record NFL history.

The pick: Panthers 23 – Saints 21

Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -14.0

Total: 42.5

As of publication, we expect Riley Leonard to start this game for the Colts, which obviously conjures up memories of Max Brosmer making his first career start in a similar situation two weeks ago. I'd like to say it can't possibly go as badly for Leonard as it did for Brosmer, but honestly who knows? Anything is on the table.

The other option, of course, would be 44-year-old Philip Rivers stepping in, which remains a possibility. My guess is that Rivers is more likely to start in Week 16 as the Colts continue to damage-control a once-promising season, but Indy may be willing to take its chances with a grandfather who hasn't played in the NFL in five years over Leonard. They brought Rivers in – quite festively, I might add – for a reason, I suppose.

Either way, this should be yet another advantage spot for the Seattle defense, which has feasted against bad quarterbacks all season. From Spencer Rattler to Jacoby Brissett to Brosmer to Kirk Cousins, Seattle has five wins this season by at least 22 points.

We do need to keep in mind that, QB aside, this is still a very respectable Colts roster. Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren, a deep corps of receivers and a strong offensive line remain. The question is whether Leonard/Rivers are enough of a liability that the rest of the personnel doesn't end up mattering.

The line movement would suggest the answer to that question is "yes, absolutely", but I wouldn't be surprised if the Colts make this a bit tougher than most expect. 

The pick: Seahawks 27 – Colts 14

Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -12.5

Total: 44.5

I can't wait to write about this game in the "Biggest Misses of Week 14" section next week, but of all the double-digit favorites this week, the Niners are my favorite play. Coming out of a bye, San Francisco is about as healthy as it'll be the rest of the way and should be well-prepared to face an undermanned Titans team.

Tennessee is coming off of a win over the Browns in Cleveland, and while the Titans' running game was impressive, that was much more about the Browns being the Browns. After rallying back to take a halftime lead, Cleveland began the second half with three consecutive three-and-outs, an interception, another punt, a fumble and a blocked punt. 

Tennessee was able to capitalize on short fields and put up 31 points, but the Titans had just an 11th percentile success rate on the day and gave up 6.4 yards per play to a Shedeur Sanders-led offense that could not run the ball.

The pick: 49ers 31 – Titans 17

Sunday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys -5.5

Total: 47.5

Even after a disappointing loss to the Lions on Thursday night, the Cowboys still have a path to the postseason. That likely involves the Eagles continuing to collapse down the stretch, while Dallas probably needs to win out.

The defense suffered letdown after letdown in that Detroit game, while the offense did not score a touchdown in the first half in what was an all-around sloppy, undisciplined game from the Cowboys. Even so, Dallas still scored 30 points on the road and remains one of the most potent offenses in the NFL.

We have no idea what to expect from Minnesota week-to-week, as the Vikings became the first team in 33 years to get shutout one week, then shut out an opponent the following week. Mistake avoidance by J.J. McCarthy tends to be the key offensively, while the Vikings' defense remains one of the league's best units – particularly against the pass.

Dallas' defense showed enough holes last week that the Vikings should be confident in their ability to move the ball. But McCarthy is a far cry from Jared Goff as a passer, so we'll side with the Cowboys to do just enough to win and cover.

The pick: Cowboys 27 – Vikings 20

Monday Night Football

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Steelers -3.0

Total: 42.5

Very, very quietly, the Dolphins have somewhat salvaged their season and are lurking on the seedy outskirts of the AFC playoff race. At 6-7 – the same record as Baltimore and Kansas City – Miami is 2.0 games back of the Texans for the final Wild Card spot.

Do I expect Miami to actually make a playoff push? Absolutely not. But the Dolphins have at least gained back some respect and Mike McDaniel may have saved his job for another season. Either way, this sets up an interesting matchup in what feels like a gotta-have-it game for Pittsburgh with a matchup against Detroit looming on the schedule next week.

The Steelers' ability to slow down Devon Achane and the Dolphins' running attack will be key, as Miami's recent four-game winning streak has had very little to do with Tua Tagovailoa. In wins over Buffalo, Washington, New Orleans and the Jets, Tua is averaging just 157 passing yards per game while throwing only three touchdowns to go with three picks.

Pittsburgh's defense has been shaky all season, so Miami is a live dog here. But the idea of trusting Tua to walk into Pittsburgh, in the cold, in primetime, and play a mistake-free game is a dubious one.

Injuries on the Steelers' offensive line – as well as the T.J. Watt situation – prevent this from being a stronger lean, but we'll side with Pittsburgh to grind out a narrow win at home.

The pick: Steelers 21 – Dolphins 20