Backfield Breakdown: RB Usage Report & Week 16 Waivers Preview

A shockingly light year for RB injuries took a turn for the worse Week 15. Six running backs left games early and never returned, including four starters, and three others (Joe Mixon, Tony Pollard, Braelon Allen) got banged up but were able to continue playing. Fantasy managers who relied on Alvin Kamara, David Montgomery, Kenneth Walker or J.K. Dobbins for much of the year may now have to put their faith in backups like Kendre Miller and Jerome Ford, or even worse, desperation options along the lines of Craig Reynolds, Ameer Abdullah and Kimani Vidal.

On balance, the current RB pool is still stronger than what we've typically seen during December in recent years, led by high-volume, high-efficiency studs like Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Josh Jacobs, Jahmyr Gibbs and James Conner.

Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

David Montgomery (MCL / out for season)

Nick Chubb (foot / out for season)

Alvin Kamara (groin / week-to-week)

Sincere McCormick (ankle / uncertain)

Jaleel McLaughlin (quad / uncertain)

Trey Benson (ankle / uncertain)

Two starting running backs suffered season-ending injuries Week 15, and it won't be shocking if Kamara ultimately makes it three (he's undergoing additional tests after missing the final quarter of Sunday's 20-19 loss to Washington). The Montgomery injury locks in Jahmyr Gibbs as an elite RB1 for the final few weeks of the season, with Craig Reynolds likely taking on some work but unlikely to come anywhere close to Monty's workloads.

Jerome Ford and Kendre Miller are the presumed fantasy beneficiaries from the other injuries, and in those cases managers are just hoping for RB2 or FLEX value. Ford has already filled in for Chubb numerous times and been inconsistent while doing so, showing decent receiving skills and a penchant for long-distance runs but struggling to avoid negative plays and consistently pick up what's blocked. Miller is more of a mystery, with value partially depending on how much of Kamara's usual receiving work he takes on. Miller likely will see more touches than Ford but may be playing in a completely cratered/uncompetitive offense that's racked with injuries at other positions as well.

Missed Week 15

Kenneth Walker (calf/ankle / day-to-day)

Roschon Johnson (concussion / day-to-day)

Jonathon Brooks (ACL / season-ending) & Raheem Blackshear (chest / day-to-day)

MarShawn Lloyd (ankle/appendix / eligible Week 16)

J.K. Dobbins (knee - IR / eligible Week 17)

Austin Ekeler (concussion - IR / eligible Week 18)

Christian McCaffrey (IR - knee) & Jordan Mason (IR - ankle)

Stock Report 📊

A lot of what you'll see here is building on my work from Box Score Breakdown, the weekly recap article with stat tables for every team that include snaps, routes, and target/air-yard shares, in addition to all the basic stats like carries, catches, yards and TDs. I also discuss role specifics and make note of various circumstances that could cause numbers to be misleading, so it's worth checking out if you're looking to go into even more detail on running backs before making waiver adds or lineup decisions for the upcoming week.

Note: Opps. = carries + targets    

All stats below are from Week 15 only unless otherwise specified       

Trending Up 📈

Jahmyr Gibbs - Montgomery injury 

James Conner - 76% snaps + 21 of 27 RB opps before final drive, 138 total yards + 2 TDs

Isaac Guerendo - 75% snaps, 65% routes, 20 of 20 RB opps, 75 total yards

Rico Dowdle - four straight games with 19+ touches, 98+ total yards

Jerome Ford - 84% snaps after Chubb's exit  /  104 total yards + TD

Kendre Miller - Q4: 88% snaps, all nine RB opps  /  Kamara injury

Travis Etienne - 70% snaps, 60% routes, 19 of 31 RB opps, 85 total yards

Tyjae Spears - 55% snaps, 62% routes, 6-87-1 receiving + rushing TD

Javonte Williams / Audric Estime - McLaughlin injury

Craig Reynolds - Montgomery injury

Trending Down 📉

Najee Harris - 34% snaps, 17% routes, 7 of 16 RB opps, 21 total yards

Breece Hall - 49% snaps, 11 of 19 RB opps, 51 total yards + TD

Isiah Pacheco - 37% snaps, 14 of 31 RB opps, 47 total yards

Tank Bigsby - 29% snaps, 17% routes, 12 of 31 RB opps, 42 total yards

Tyrone Tracy - 67% snaps, 53% routes, 14 of 25 RB opps, 35 total yards

Gus Edwards - 37% snaps, 8% routes, eight of 14 RB opps, 23 total yards

Unsettled Backfields 🎲

These are the backfields that need to be monitored closely, where role changes could be imminent or we aren't sure about the team's depth chart moving forward. Backfield with a clear hierarchy/order won't be included unless there's a long-term injury to the starter and the backup situation is uncertain or confusing. 

Messy Backfields

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Las Vegas Raiders
4. Kansas City Chiefs

Jaguars RB Travis Etienne took the lead over Tank Bigsby for a second time in the past three weeks during Sunday's loss to New York, but the game in between featured Bigsby with an 18-4 lead over ETN for carries. All in all, Etienne has played 59% of snaps in three games since a Week 12 bye, with 31 carries, 12 targets and 213 yards, while Bigsby has 40% snap share, 36 carries, four targets and 139 yards. You'd rather have Etienne in a fantasy lineup Week 16, but there's no guarantee he'll get more carries/touches than his backfield mate. It's basically a week-to-week thing, dependent on matchups and "hot hand" judgments from a hot-seat coaching staff.

Steelers RB Najee Harris had his three lowest snap shares of the season all in the past four games, albeit with 16 carries in each of the first three outings before plummeting to six carries and one target (33% snaps) in a 27-13 loss to the Eagles on Sunday. He's highly game-script dependent in a backfield where Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson also have roles... which is especially worrisome ahead of matchups with the Ravens and Chiefs during fantasy playoffs. Neither Harris nor Warren inspires any confidence as a fantasy starter.

The Raiders settled on Sincere McCormick as their lead back the past couple weeks, but he then suffered an ankle injury Monday night in what also happened to be Alexander Mattison's first game back from an ankle injury of his own. McCormick had four carries and a catch on the opening drive, with Ameer Abdullah sprinkling in a third-down reception and Mattison then ending the series with a lost fumble on his first touch of the game. McCormick was then injured on the Raiders' third drive and missed the rest of the game. From that point forward, Abdullah got 59% of snaps, three carries and five targets, with Mattison taking 42% snap share, six carries and four targets. The negative game script favored Abdullah, so you could make a case for ranking/starting Mattison ahead of Abdullah in Week 16 if McCormick is out (even though AA scored a TD and generally outplayed Mattison on Monday). The best solution, of course, is to have a good enough fantasy team that you don't need to rely on a confusing, talent-deficient backfield within a generally terrible offense.

Last but not least we have the Chiefs, who expanded Isiah Pacheco's role between his first and second weeks back in the lineup but then scaled him back in Game No. 3, the 21-7 win over Cleveland on Sunday. Pacheco and Kareem Hunt both got 37% of snaps and 13 carries, with Hunt having a 10-9 advantage in routes and 2-1 advantage in targets. As if that's not bad enough, Samaje Perine actually ran the most routes (13, 33%) of the team's RBs. Long story short, neither Pacheco nor Hunt can be trusted in Week 16 fantasy lineups, irrespective of Patrick Mahomes' availability (ankle injury).

On the Brink

1. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have been completely unable to run the ball without J.K. Dobbins, using Gus Edwards as their lead rusher while Kimani Vidal gets most of the snaps on pass plays. Vidal out-snapped Vidal in both of the past two games but took just 11 carries for 43 yards and two catches for 13 yards (four targets) in those contests. It won't be surprising if Vidal gets more of a chance in the coming weeks, nor would it shock if third-stringer Hassan Haskins got a shot. Dobbins is eligible to return Week 17, but there hasn't been any update on whether that's a realistic possibility.

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

If you're looking for a more comprehensive waivers article, RW's Kevin Payne has you covered. Here we're just taking a quick look at some RBs to target based on the work contained in this article and Monday's Box Score Breakdown. 

In order to qualify, the RB needs to be rostered in no more than 60 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Potential Short-Term Starters

1. Jerome Ford - 43%
2. Kendre Miller - 11%
3. Tyjae Spears - 44%
4. Tank Bigsby - 53%
5. Kareem Hunt - 58% 
6. Justice Hill - 17%
7. Tyler Allgeier - 33%
8. Ameer Abdullah - 16%
9. Alexander Mattison - 37%
10. Kimani Vidal - 12%
11. Gus Edwards - 51%
12. Devin Singletary - 40%
13. Audric Estime - 7%

I give Ford a slight edge over Miller here despite his less-than-stellar track record as a starter. That's partially because we have more certainty about Nick Chubb's injury than Alvin Kamara's, but the bigger reason is Ford's superior matchup for Week 16, facing a barely-there Cincinnati defense while Miller heads to Green Bay. The Saints' implied total of 14.25 points is about as bad as it gets, sitting 5.5 points south of Cleveland's (19.75) even after the Browns announced that Dorian Thompson-Robinson is replacing Jameis Winston as their starting QB. The counter-argument is that Miller projects for a larger share of his team's offense, in part because he's better-suited to running up the middle and gaining tough yards (Ford is more of a scatback and home-run hitter who keeps being forced into lead-back duties).

Bench Stashes

1. Tyler Allgeier - 33%
2. Blake Corum - 15% 
3. Isaiah Davis - 17% 
4. J.K. Dobbins - 62% (IR - knee)
5. Kenneth Gainwell - 5%
6. Ray Davis - 19% 
7. Patrick Taylor - 25%
8. Cam Akers - 16%