This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Most fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because fantasy managers typically have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.
For those looking for a running back after the top-12 picks are off the board, this ADP battle is for you. We'll compare Joe Mixon, James Cook and Alvin Kamara.
Joe Mixon, RB, Texans
Upside
Mixon has averaged 303 touches over the past few seasons. Dameon Pierce is currently the only legitimate competition for work on the depth chart. Mixon profiles to be the lead runner and goal-line option for the Texans. In 2023, the duo of Devin Singletary and Pierce caught 43 passes. That reception total should be a baseline for Mixon. As a runner, it's unlikely Mixon sees many stacked boxes. The main reason is the Texans have a dynamic trio of receivers in Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to go with quarterback C.J. Stroud. Don't expect Mixon to post much more than the four yards per carry he averages each season. That said, volume is king in fantasy football. Mixon should see plenty. Mixon could finish inside
Most fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because fantasy managers typically have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.
For those looking for a running back after the top-12 picks are off the board, this ADP battle is for you. We'll compare Joe Mixon, James Cook and Alvin Kamara.
Joe Mixon, RB, Texans
Upside
Mixon has averaged 303 touches over the past few seasons. Dameon Pierce is currently the only legitimate competition for work on the depth chart. Mixon profiles to be the lead runner and goal-line option for the Texans. In 2023, the duo of Devin Singletary and Pierce caught 43 passes. That reception total should be a baseline for Mixon. As a runner, it's unlikely Mixon sees many stacked boxes. The main reason is the Texans have a dynamic trio of receivers in Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to go with quarterback C.J. Stroud. Don't expect Mixon to post much more than the four yards per carry he averages each season. That said, volume is king in fantasy football. Mixon should see plenty. Mixon could finish inside the top 10 of fantasy running backs.
Downside
Sometimes, switching teams isn't as easy as it sounds. The Texans use a similar style of rushing attack Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers and Mike McDaniel of the Dolphins use. However, there are occasional running backs that struggle with this specific type of zone running. It's possible Dameon Pierce went from looking great as a rookie to being one of the worst running backs in the NFL last season for that reason. Another possible concern for Mixon is he begins to decline. Although Mixon will be 28 this season, the veteran has seen heavy usage since 2018. If decline and/or the system are issues for Mixon, he still should see volume. As a result, it would be easier to mix other players in if Mixon declines. In that case, Mixon would be closer to RB20 than RB10.
The Bottom Line
Mixon has been reliable in a high-volume role for many years. There have not been evident signs of decline. Fantasy managers should look for another 300-touch season with at least 40 catches. Look for the former Bengal to have a very high weekly floor and another strong fantasy campaign.
James Cook, RB, Bills
Upside
The Bills selected Ray Davis, a physical inside runner in the draft. For Cook to reach his upside potential, he'll have to prove Davis shouldn't have a substantial role in the offense. From Week 11 through the Bills' two playoff games, Cook had at least 16 rushes in seven out of nine games. Not only would Cook need to retain that level of rushing work, but he would need to keep his yards per carry consistent every week. That was not the case in 2023. Cook was targeted at least four times in the majority of his games from Week 11 on. With the running back being excellent after the catch, retaining a similar role would be needed for him to reach his scoring potential. If featured as a runner and receiver, Cook should be in line to crack the top 12 of fantasy running backs.
Downside
Although Cook's overall numbers were excellent in 2023, there is reason to believe his workload will be cut down significantly. At 5-foot-11,190 pounds, Cook slowed down as the season progressed. Even though the former Georgia standout rushed for an excellent 4.7 yards per carry on the season, that number fell to 2.64 yards per rush in his last five games. His 237 rush attempts may have taken a toll over time. Cook could turn into more of a rotational player with Davis on the roster with the possibility he carries the ball eight-to-10 times per game. However, Cook should see plenty of receiving work. With Davis being a bigger back, Cook may see fewer snaps in the red zone. Should Davis take the lead as a runner, Cook could find it challenging to finish inside the top 20 of fantasy running backs.
The Bottom Line
Cook is at his best as a receiver. However, it seems unlikely he will catch more than 50 passes (Cook had 44 last year). It also doesn't appear probable Cook will be a main option at the goal line. Aside from Davis, Josh Allen is one of the best red-zone options in the league. The likelihood the rushing attempts are slashed for Cook makes sense. Volume may be a real issue. As a result, Cook should have a moderate floor, but he may lack the ceiling of other players drafted in the same range.
Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints
Upside
As long as Kamara is on the field and Derek Carr looks to get rid of the ball as quickly as possible, the running back will remain fantasy gold. Despite not taking the field until Week 4 last year, Kamara caught 75 passes and handled 13.8 rushing attempts per game. Altogether, the former Tennessee Volunteer posted 1,160 yards. Should Kamara retain that level of usage, especially in the passing game, he will likely remain a top-10 fantasy running back in PPR leagues.
Downside
Although fantasy managers loved the production last year, Kamara was a player in steep decline. The once dynamic running back was in the 15th percentile in broken tackle rate. Kamara was also below the 28th percentile in both yards after contact and yards after the catch. In his age-29 season, further decline is likely. Last year, the Saints drafted Kendre Miller in the third round. In a small sample, Miller looked explosive and efficient. Even though Kamara should start the season at the top of the pecking order, Miller could take the lead if he proves to be the better player. In that scenario, Kamara could struggle to finish as a top-30 fantasy back.
The Bottom Line
Many fantasy players will find it hard to fade Kamara after the fantasy production he had in 2023. The game of football is harsh. The end comes for everyone. After the decline Kamara showed last year, the odds of him 'turning back the clock' seem unlikely. Also, the Saints will be compelled to give Miller a chance to compete after investing a third-round pick in him. Sean Payton has been gone for a while, but OC Pete Carmichael left New Orleans after last season. As a result, the coaching staff will have little allegiance to play Kamara if he's not helping the team. Yes, he may catch 50 passes, but I'm betting on further decline, which means a finish outside the top 24 at his position.
The Final Word
Mixon has been a steady fantasy performer capable of handling high volume for years. He is also solid as a receiver and as a goal-line back. With no real competition, the former Oklahoma Sooner has the highest floor of this trio and possibly the highest upside. Coming in second is Cook. There's no lock that Ray Davis is a good player. If he's not, Cook may continue to see enough volume to excel. Even if Davis cuts into his workload, Cook is still explosive and capable of putting up strong weekly yardage totals. As much as Kamara has been a fantasy football legend for a long time, the inability to break tackles and gain yards after contact is something I don't see reversing. I have Kamara as a distant third in this battle.
