Lenovo Japanese Grand Prix 2023
Location: Suzuka, Mie, Japan
Circuit: Suzuka Circuit
Course Length: 5.807
Laps: 53
Japanese Grand Prix Preview
We saw the downfall of Max Verstappen and Red Bull last weekend at the Singapore Grand Prix, as it was the first time in 10 races that Verstappen hadn't won and the first time this season that Red Bull didn't lead the pack. Contrary to their deserved reputation, Ferrari and Carlos Sainz Jr. made a number of very smart in-race decisions, the best of which was keeping Lando Norris in DRS range behind him as protection from George Russell in third place, who had superior speed to both the Ferrari and McLaren.
The theme of many of our previews has been the seemingly ever-shifting landscape of the top challengers to Verstappen and Red Bull. Ferrari and Sainz in particular have come out of the summer break at the top of that conversation, as he's picked up two podiums in three races since with a fifth-place finish also mixed in. Mercedes has sat somewhere in between. They were in line for an excellent result last weekend as well, until Russell's unfortunate crash on the final lap.
Of the top-tier teams, the biggest shift has been the opposing trajectories of Aston Martin and McLaren. Aston Martin looked to be the only potential challenger to Red Bull at the start of the season and now are arguably the fifth-fastest team. Meanwhile, McLaren has found pace and has one of the top driver pairings on the grid. As has been the case, watching the four teams immediately after Red Bull will be the headline of this race.
Liam Lawson is another name to watch. He earned the first points of his F1 career (in only his third race) in an Alpha Tauri last weekend. He deserves a seat on the grid next year, but only one remains potentially open – the second Williams driver behind Alex Albon. Both the performance of Lawson and Logan Sargeant will be worth keeping a close eye on.
Key Stats at Suzuka
Races: 32
Winners from Pole: 16
Winners from front row: 28
Previous 10 winners
2022- Max Verstappen
2019 - Valtteri Bottas
2018- Lewis Hamilton
2017- Lewis Hamilton
2016- Nico Rosberg
2015 – Lewis Hamilton
2014- Lewis Hamilton
2013 – Sebastian Vettel
2012 – Sebastian Vettel
2011 – Jenson Button
F1 returned to Suzuka last year in extremely rainy conditions but there's no weather projected across the entire weekend for the 2023 edition so the race should be more straightforward. The circuit is always among a favorite of the drivers, as it's very technical but also very high speed. There are a number of iconic features of the circuit, which include the series of "S" curves in Sector 1 and then turns 13, 14 and 15 being taken at very high speeds as the drivers transition from Sector 2 to 3.
As was the case last year, the hardest set of tires are available to drivers, as Pirelli has sent the C1, C2 and C3 compounds. Given the equal number of turns (10 right, eightleft) and the significant changes in speeds, the track is very demanding on tires.
DraftKings Value Picks for the Japanese Grand Prix
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Max Verstappen - $15,600
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Lando Norris - $9,400
Lewis Hamilton - $9,200
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $8,200
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Oscar Piastri - $7,600
Fernando Alonso - $6,800
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Pierre Gasly - $5,600
Esteban Ocon - $5,200
Alex Albon - $4,800
Tier 5 DraftKings Values
Yuki Tsunoda - $4,200
Liam Lawson - $4,000
Constructor DraftKings Values
Mercedes - $9,500
Ferrari - $8,800
McLaren - $7,900
Alpine - $3,800
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Japanese Grand Prix
Captain – Max Verstappen - $23,400
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $8,400
Pierre Gasly - $5,600
Alex Albon - $4,800
Liam Lawson - $4,200
Constructor - Alpine - $3,800
After his "poor" performance at Singapore, Verstappen looks to be back on track after leading both practice sessions to this point. There's no reason to believe he won't immediately return to his dominance.
We talked about Sainz's improved pace the last few weeks, so it's nice to get him at the cheapest point of Tier 2. Tier 3 is where things start to get a bit more interesting. Piastri and McLaren have been on a good run, and he arguably belongs in tier two. The primary thing holding him back is his own teammate, as he has managed to beat Norris only three times this season. That's a 10 DK-point swing in Norris' favor. It's a good idea to buy the dip on Alonso as well, as he had a truly disastrous Singapore Grand Prix. For those not opting for Verstappen in the captain, rostering both of these drivers is a good bet.
It's difficult to know which Alpine driver will perform on a given week. Ocon drove a great race last weekend before his car gave out, and Gasly turned in a solid sixth-place finish. The problem is, they can show pace one weekend and look absolutely lost the next. Albon enters this tier as well. He's been excellent basically the entire season and has shown real comfort with his Williams, which we may have to finally give credit to simply being a better car than expected. Albon is about as good of a lock as anyone besides Verstappen to beat his teammate.
Alpha Tauri may have one of the slowest cars on the grid, but both of their drivers are solid and can contend for points – which we've seen across the last few weeks. They're as low as I'd be willing to go when seriously considering rostering a driver.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Japanese Grand Prix
Fastest Qualifier and Win Race – Max Verstappen (-310)
Podium Finish – Carlos Sainz Jr. (+195); George Russell (+410)
Top-Six Finish- Fernando Alonso (+145)
Points Finish – Pierre Gasly (+145); Esteban Ocon (+145)
Much of the conversation around these drivers and picks has been discussed above. The two picks we should focus some more attention on are Russell and Alonso. Lewis Hamilton has consistently bettered his teammate in results this season, but Russell has often seemed to show more pace in his Mercedes. That's again the case through two practice sessions. After coming so close to a win only to also lose his podium in heartbreaking fashion, it may be time for Russell to finally break through.
Alonso finished sixth in both free practices to his point and is talented enough to get the most out of his Aston Martin – even it's fading relative to the field. His odds of finishing inside the top six seem like a significant overreaction to his showing at Singapore.
