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College Football Picks: Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State Best Bets
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This year's Texas Bowl brings us teams heading in opposite directions. Coming into bowl season, Texas A&M brings in new head coach Mike Elko from Duke; however, interim head coach Elijah Robinson will be manning the sideline one final time before heading to Syracuse to take over defensive coordinator duties. After A&M came into the season with high expectations following two big recruiting classes in a row, the team fell short of those expectations, finishing at 7-5. This led to the firing of coach Jimbo Fisher and the departure of 15 players via the transfer portal. On the other side, Oklahoma State is led by Mike Gundy, who is capping off his 19th season with the Pokes. Oklahoma State finished the season with a 9-4 record, finishing things off with a tough loss to Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State Betting Odds for the Texas Bowl
Spread: Texas A&M -3 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Oklahoma State +3 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Texas A&M -152 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Oklahoma State +130 (BetMGM)
Total: Over 54.(DraftKings Sportsbook); Under 54.5 (BetMGM)
Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State Betting Picks for the Texas Bowl
After opening at around Texas A&M -4.5 on most major books, the line moved drastically after the onslaught of players entering the transfer portal for Texas A&M. The moneyline odds have also moved accordingly along with the spread odds, but the two have since stabilized again. The total stagnated for a while after opening at around 53 on most major books before jumping up again slightly to 54.
Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State Expert Pick: Over 54.0 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Unlike Vegas, here, I feel like the transfers and non-bowl participants will play a large factor in how this game is played, in turn making an impact on the total. Texas A&M, throughout the course of the year, was dominant on defense, ranking seventh in the nation in EPA/Rush and 17th in the nation in EPA/Pass (via CFB-Graphs). Not only were they tops in the nation in weighted efficiency numbers they were also tops in the raw figures at 15th in rushing yards allowed and 19th in passing yards allowed. The A&M defense, however, has lost two of their top defensive lineman in Walter Nolen and Fadil Diggs, along with former five-star recruit from 2022 LT Overton, who has also been a contributor on the defensive line this season. Not only are the Aggies losing key contributors on the offensive line, but they will also be losing two key contributors on the back end in starting corners Deuce Harmon and Tyreek Chappell. This will likely make things easier for an Oklahoma State team that ranked 71st in EPA/Pass and 18th in EPA/Rush (via CFB-Graphs). On the other side of things, Texas A&M will be without their top two leading receivers from this season in Ainais Smith, who has declared for the NFL draft and opted to help coach in prep for the bowl game and Evan Stewart, who has entered the transfer portal. Noah Thomas is also expected to miss the bowl game due to injury. Outside of the receivers, the rest of the offense will remain mostly intact as the offensive line should be at full strength, and the Aggies will still have Jaylen Henderson, who took over as starting quarterback for the final three games of the season. With an offensive line that remains intact, it should help the Aggies against a less-than-stellar Oklahoma State defensive line, which anchors the 103rd-ranked rushing defense and 122nd-ranked passing defense.
Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State Predictions for the Texas Bowl
With all the overturn for the Aggies, this looks to even things up quite a bit. The Pokes should have a bit of an easier time moving the ball against a weakened A&M defensive front and secondary. This should lead to more scoring than we would have likely seen. However, Texas A&M still has a lot of talent on their team and they should still be more than competitive in this game. This game should be a close one, and there are a lot of moving parts, which is why I'm staying away from the sides here, but I definitely think the losses will be a bit hard to cover up completely and will lead to more scoring.
