Tennessee vs. Florida Betting Odds, Picks, and Prediction for Week 4

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Published on September 23, 2022

Tennessee vs. Florida Betting Odds, Picks, and Prediction for Week 4

The Tennessee Volunteers enter Week 4 undefeated. Their 3-0 record is currently supported by two crushing victories over MAC opponents and a seven-point win over Pittsburgh. After obliterating Akron last week, Volunteers' quarterback Hendon Hooker enters SEC Conference competition with a completion percentage of 69.4 percent, 844 yards passing, six touchdowns and zero interceptions. Hooker will need to keep up with his nearly flawless play against a Florida Gators defense that has been unfriendly to opposing QBs; the Gators are allowing just 178 passing yards per game.

After Florida's surprising season-opening victory over Utah, they have hit a bit of a snag. They dropped their Week 2 matchup to Kentucky, 26-16, then scraped by the South Florida Bulls in a narrow 31-28 win. Gators' quarterback Anthony Richardson has shown flashes, especially in his ability to leave the pocket and pick up yards on the ground, but he's been very lackluster in the passing game. Richardson has completed just 53.2 percent of his passes for 423 yards, zero touchdowns, and four interceptions this season.

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Tennessee vs. Florida Odds for Week 4

Spread: Tennessee -10.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Total: 62.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Moneyline: Tennessee -365; Florida +300 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

The spread opened this week at 9.5 points and has since shifted to 10.5 points. The total has remained steady at 62.5, occasionally sitting at 62 flat. Public bettors have been backing Florida on both the spread and the moneyline across many sports betting markets. It would appear that the public is still willing to back Florida after their victory over then-No. 7 Utah back in Week 1; an interesting development considering the Gators' 10-point loss to then-No. 20 Kentucky and three-point win over USF in the past two weeks.

Tennessee vs. Florida Betting Picks this Week

Florida's offense runs through their ground game as they average 212 rushing yards per contest. Yet, Tennessee has been one of the best teams against the run this season, allowing just 83.3 rushing yards per game. The Gators also average 200 yards of offense per game LESS than the Volunteers (353 yards of offense for Florida, 553.7 for Tennessee). The high-tempo offense of Tennessee will be facing the stingiest defense they have faced up to this point in the season, and if they fail to put points up early, this game could have a closer finish than the 10.5-point spread. Considering that Vols' quarterback Hendon Hooker has done a much better job of keeping the ball in the hands of his own team, other than his counterpart Anthony Richardson, I don't expect the game to be all that close. Richardson has looked subpar this season, and his first three contests were in the friendly confines of his home field in Gainesville; this being Richardson's first game of the 2022 season on the road. Florida's offense is questionable, and the uptempo Tennessee offense is facing their strongest defensive opponent to date. Now seems like a good time to take the under. I would not be surprised if the total was closer to 42 instead of 62.

Tennessee vs. Florida Best Bet: UNDER 62.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Tennessee vs. Florida Prediction

As long as Anthony Richardson fails to help his team through the air, the Gators one dimensional rushing offense will struggle to put points on the board against the Volunteers solid rushing defense. While Tennessee's rushing attack is ranked slightly lower, it's still strong. The backfield duo of Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small have the potential to carry the Vols to victory. While Florida has been satisfactory at stopping opposing quarterbacks, they have shown lapses on rushing defense, allowing 225 rushing yards to Utah in Week 1, and surprisingly, 286 rushing yards to South Florida last week. Hendon Hooker will prevent Tennessee from making costly turnovers, having not thrown an interception in his last 189 pass attempts. Hooker will keep this game in control for the Volunteers and keep Tennessee undefeated at 4-0.

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