College Football Picks: Arizona vs SMU Best Bets
SMU faces Arizona to wrap up bowl season outside of the playoffs. The Mustangs, who posted eight victories this season, went just 5-7 ATS, and are coming off a smarting loss to California that cost them an ACC Championship bid. The Over hit in just four of their games, offering trend betters some juicy tidbits.
The Wildcats won nine games, are an impressive 8-4 ATS, while the Over hit in just four of their games as well; all four of their last games have gone under the mark. Hmm...
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Arizona vs SMU Holiday Bowl Odds
Spread: Arizona +1.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); SMU -1 (Fanatics Sportsbook)
Total: Over 51.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Under 52 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Arizona +102 (FanDuel); SMU -108 (BetRivers Sportsbook)
Yes, you're reading that correctly. These odds are all over the place and you can get both teams as slight underdogs depending on the site. I, personally, had a tough time with my Oregon-Texas Tech write-up, and this one seems more challenging given what the books are presenting. As a result, I can't speak to much line movement other than Arizona opened as a minor favorite.
The total has been largely stagnant, with the 51.5 number being the opening spot, and just some minor differences across books. Keep an eye on movement throughout the day, as we've seen games lately have sharp swings closer to kickoff if/when news breaks late on players not playing.
Arizona vs SMU Betting Picks for the Holiday Bowl
As the intro notes mentioned, trend bettors should have a field day here landing on Arizona and the Under. The caveat, as in all bowl games, is who's playing. And for Arizona, as of early Friday morning, we have no clue. Head coach Brett Brennan has noted there could be opt-outs, but he's not disclosing that information to gain a competitive advantage. While I understand the rationale, c'mon man.
That's going to make it really difficult to back the Wildcats, and that's a shame because there appears one clear advantage here; Arizona's passing game against SMU's weak secondary. The Mustangs rank 135th out of 136 teams in yards allowed per game through the air. Assuming QB Noah Fifita plays, and there's no real reason for him not to, Arizona should have some offensive success.
It's strength on strength when SMU has the ball, as its passing game is 13th nationally while the Arizona defense is fourth against the pass, allowing just 155.9 ypg and a 9:19 TD:INT ratio. It hasn't allowed 200 yards passing in any game since September.
I'm usually not a totals guy, and I'm certainly not a trend bettor. But, I think we're going to see some news close to kickoff on guys not playing, which has me far less confident on picking a winner than normal.
The game is a toss-up with both at full strength, as the line suggests. But I'm following the total trend here. SMU will struggle through the air, but find ways to contain the Wildcats offense enough to keep it close and points won't come freely.
Arizona vs SMU Expert Pick: Under 52 (-109) at Caesars Sportsbook
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Arizona vs SMU Predictions for the Holiday Bowl
Kevin Jennings is more than good enough to test Arizona's elite pass defense. But, I question if he'll need to. The Mustangs cranked up their rushing efforts in November, going for 222 against Boston College, 178 against Louisville and 227 yards against Cal, scoring eight times. It seems prudent to lean on that, churn clock and keep their weak secondary on the sidelines as much as possible.
Simply based on Brennan's ambiguous quotes, I'm expecting the Mustangs to be the more complete team from a roster/availability standpoint. But it's a complete guess as of submission. The Mustangs lost to Wake Forest and Cal, as well as a Baylor team Arizona crushed. They are far less consistent. and Arizona has won five straight.
Having not played in a bowl last season, I believe the Wildcats will be motivated, even if undermanned, to compete here. Give me Arizona, very timidly, to squeeze this out.
Prediction: Arizona 24, SMU 20
Arizona vs SMU Player Props for Friday, January 2nd
There aren't a ton of props out there, and which again speaks to the ambiguity of who is and isn't playing. If available, my personal preference would be to find a rushing over on SMU's Chris Johnson. He's a home run waiting to happen and would hit whatever low number pops up on one or two carries.
Sam Keltner, K, SMU Over 0.5 field goals
What a sexy play, ha! Arizona has allowed a field goal in every game except their finale against Arizona State. Keltner has a made field goal in all but their first and last game. Rhett Lashlee will go for it rather than kick; Keltner has just 19 FGA in 12 games. But it's just one field goal, and my score prediction says he's getting two! It's just such a low bar to clear that it's a play to back.
Noah Fifita, QB, Arizona Under 277.5 passing yards
He's hit this mark in two of his last three, and as noted, SMU is terrible against the pass. But, if we're buying in to Arizona opt-outs, perhaps his receiving options are limited. But, it's more of a play on SMU finding rushing success and this game not shooting out. While his recent trends are encouraging, Fifita has gone over this number just four times all season.
