This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: NC State vs. Kansas State Best Bets
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NC State vs. Kansas State Betting Odds for the Pop-Tarts Bowl
Spread: Kansas State -2.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over/Under 47.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: -134 Kansas State (FanDuel Sportsbook); +120 NC State (BetMGM)
NC State vs. Kansas State Betting Picks for the Pop-Tarts Bowl
If both of these teams were at full strength, this would be one heck of a game, and it still might be, but it won't be the same with all the players missing from both sides.
KSU was hit harder with the transfers and opt-outs than NC State, as starting QB Will Howard is out, as well as starting WR Phillip Brooks and stud TE Ben Sinnott. The absence of Sinnott could prove pivotal as replacement QB Avery Johnson will not have a safety blanket in the passing game. Making things more complicated, OC Collin Klein has also left the program.
NC State will be without QB MJ Morris, but he was only the starter after Brennan Armstrong struggled early in the year. Armstrong actually found his game near the end of the season, so the Wolfpack offense should be just fine. There are a bunch of players in the portal, but most are backups.
Kansas State will try to win this one on the ground, not only because the 'Cats are without Howard, but because they are quite good at running that ball as they ranked 14th in the nation this season in yards per game. Unfortunately for the 'Cats, they're running into the strength of the defense for NC State as the 'Pack ranked in the top 20 against the run this season. There's also an issue of the passing threat being removed without Howard, which means it could be a long day for the KSU offense.
On the other side of the ball, KSU is stout against the run but not so great against the pass. Looking at the numbers, it appears as though NC State is not capable of exploiting that weakness. Still, the Wolfpack may have figured something out towards the end of the season, as Armstrong finished with a couple of good outings to close the regular season.
This game will be decided by the KSU running game. If the Wildcats can find some success on the ground, they can win this game; if not, they're in trouble. Considering the Wolfpack have defended the run well all season, I don't see KSU having much success on the ground, which will put the 'Cats in a tough spot. NC State has enough balance of offense to move the ball with some consistency all game. As such, the play here is NC State plus the points, with a lean on the under.
Team vs Team Expert Pick: NC State +2.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
NC State vs. Kansas State Predictions for the Pop-Tarts Bowl
As mentioned earlier, KSU will try to establish the run, and even without much success, the Wildcats will have to stick with it, so it should be a slow start for KSU. Look for NC State to try to get Armstrong going early, and if they succeed at all, that will open up the running game.
It should be a low-scoring first half, with NC State taking the early lead and riding it through much of the game. KSU will try to stick with the ground game, but at some point, it'll be forced to go through the air, and that's when the mistakes happen. NC State wins this game, and the margin depends on how many turnovers the Wildcats make in the passing game.
NC State 28 - KSU 17
