CFB Picks: Ohio State vs Michigan Best Bets
It's Week 13, and we've reached the end of the line for the college football regular season. In Week 14, we have our traditional rivalry games on Thanksgiving weekend, and none is bigger than the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines clashing at The Big House in Ann Arbor at noon ET on FOX. These rivals meet for the 121st time.
The No. 1 Buckeyes (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten) are all but into the College Football Playoff, regardless of Saturday's outcome, and we saw them overcome a stunning loss at home last season to their biggest rivals, running the table in the CFP enroute to a national title. But, there are some fans who are so crazed, on both sides really, who would rather see a win in "The Game" than even a national title. That's how much these alumni and fanbases hate each other.
The No. 15 Wolverines (9-2, 7-1) are lurking in a tie with the Oregon Ducks for second place behind both Indiana and Ohio State in the conference standings.
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Ohio State vs. Michigan Betting Odds for Week 14
Spread: Ohio State -9.5 (BetMGM); Michigan +10.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 43.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 43.5 (BetMGM)
Moneyline: Ohio State -390 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Michigan +330 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Ohio State vs. Michigan Betting Picks for Week 14
Back in the day, this was "The Game", thus the simple nickname for this rivalry. Both teams were usually playing each other in this finale for a conference title and a trip to the Rose Bowl, and there wasn't a conference title game appearance, or certainly not a national title shot with a loss. A loss was decimating. Now, you can lose and still be quite comfortable, although hurting your seeding in the CFP.
A win means a lot to Ohio State, as it has lost four in a row to Michigan. But, it would still be in the playoffs, regardless. For the Wolverines, they're playing to get into the playoffs, for a possible shot at a national title. And, a win over the No. 1 team on Saturday would serve notice to the rest of the country that this is not a team to be taken lightly.
Looking at the weather forecast, that is a wild card in this rivalry game. We'll have cloudy conditions, with maybe some flurries, and temperatures around 28 degrees at kickoff. However, by the end of the first quarter, or certainly by the second quarter, snow showers are expected to ramp up, with the winds also picking up a tad. By the second half, we'll likely have a light coating on the field with the footprints I loved to see on my TV set when I was a kid. Who doesn't love a snow game? Footing could, potentially be a bit treacherous, and we might see more of a ground-based attack.
Ohio State rested WRs Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith last week against Rutgers due to undisclosed ailments, while the Buckeyes still were able to roll. The two dynamic receivers have combined for 1,613 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns, so obviously, their inclusion in the offense is massive. The rest of the team has a total of just 11 touchdowns. Brandon Inniss looked capable last week against the Scarlet Knights, hauling in one of those scores on a pretty toe-tap in the back right corner of the end zone. And, Max Clare is also a big target for Heisman hopeful Julian Sayin.
The wild-card might be freshman RB Bo Jackson, who racked up 110 yards and two touchdowns against Rutgers. He has two straight 100-yard games and three in the past four outings. He did put the ball on the ground against Rutgers for his first lost fumble of 2025. He is going to be a major weapon.
For Michigan, QB Bryce Underwood has been a bit underwhelming. There was a ton of hype with his recruitment, but he has completed just 62.2 percent of his passes for 2,166 yards, nine touchdowns and five picks, while being sacked 16 times. He has run for 322 yards and five scores, though, so he is a dangerous dual threat.
The big key for Michigan's success will be RB Jordan Marshall, a Cincinnati kid, trying to solve the Buckeyes' staunch defense. Marshall has four straight 100-yard games against Washington, Michigan State, Purdue and Northwestern, while finding the end zone seven times, including five touchdowns in the past two games.
It's a rivalry, and we'll have snow at times, too. And, there is a lot of pressure, and playoff spots are on the line. As such, a double-digit spread is way too much. Side with the home team catching the 10, or 10.5 if you can get it.
Ohio State vs. Michigan Expert Pick: Michigan +10.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Ohio State vs. Michigan Predictions for Week 14
For totals, Ohio State has been a high-octane offense, particularly through the air, going for 440.3 total yards and 270.1 passing yards per game. The Buckeyes are good for 37.9 PPG, ranking 18th in the country.
On defense, the Buckeyes are on a historic pace. They've allowed just 206.6 total yards, 126.6 passing yards and 7.6 PPG, all the top numbers in the country. Against the run, Ohio State allows just 80.0 rushing yards per game.
Michigan has also had a tremendous offense at times, albeit a bit of an unbalanced one. Michigan ranks No. 9 in the nation with 245.8 rushing yards per game, but it has managed only 216.6 passing yards per outing, good for 99th in the nation.
Defensively, Michigan is pretty strong, too, conceding just 332.8 total yards, although it is only 59th with 229.4 passing yards per outing. It has allowed 19.7 PPG, too.
We have some snow in the forecast, and two solid defenses, especially against the run. Last season, Michigan won 13-10, and we could have another low-scoring game in the offing.
Score Prediction: Ohio State 18, Michigan 13
Ohio State vs. Michigan Player Prop Picks for Friday, November 28
QB Bryce Underwood, Michigan - Over 16.5 Rushing Yards (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Buckeyes are very stingy against the run, but it won't take much for Underwood to get to 17 yards on the ground. He has reached the mark in each of the past five games, and he is averaging 4.7 yards per carry. And, he has run for at least 11 yards on a single carry in five of the past six outings. Underwood has taken off and ran at least five times in the past nine games. If he gets to half of his season average per rush, he'll still eclipse this rushing total projection.
Ohio State - Under 381.5 Total Yards (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Buckeyes have been tremendous this season, but on a blustery date on the road against a stingy defense, let's go Under on the total yards for the Buckeyes. They might be able to move the sticks at times, as the weather won't be THAT severe, but it is going to be a slick surface at times, and a slow-go. In a potentially low-scoring game with weather, let's take the Under on total yards.
