This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Louisville vs. Miami Betting Odds and Best Bets
Get in on the college football action for 2023 with ESPN BET promo code ROTO featuring a $250 bonus bet offer! RotoWire has plenty of college football betting tools and info to keep you in the loop this season. From the latest college football odds to college football futures and Heisman odds, we have you covered.
Top-10 and one-loss Louisville heads to Miami for an ACC showdown at noon in South Florida. The Cardinals are off a narrow win over Virginia last Thursday and got extra rest to prepare for this one. They sit at 9-1 overall, with only a puzzling loss at Pittsburgh. They're just 5-5 ATS, however, with the over hitting at the same rate. Miami comes in wounded, losing a close one at rival Florida State. They are 6-4 overall, losing four of their last six straight up. The Hurricanes are 5-5 ATS, with the over hitting at that same rate as well.
Louisville vs. Miami Betting Odds for Week 12
Spread: Louisville +1 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Miami +1.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: 46.5 (BetMGM)
Moneyline: Louisville -110 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Miami -110 (Caesars Sportsbook)
We'll start with the total, which opened at 47.5 and has slowly ticked down. That seems to make sense with two solid defenses and one struggling offense. DraftKings has a 46.0 as of Friday morning, so it's possible this continues to inch down further prior to kickoff.
But boy, look at those spread and moneyline numbers! Louisville opened as a 1.5-point favorite, and is still sitting there at some books. Other books have seen the line move to Miami being a 1-point favorite. We have minus moneyline odds on both teams. I'd anticipate some uniformity in the spreads by kickoff time. Remember, the books' goal is to have even money on both sides. Early money came in on Miami presumably, and now we're being encouraged to balance that out on Louisville. A pick 'em Saturday morning wouldn't surprise.
Join the 2023 college football fun with a Caesars Sportsbook promo code featuring a $1,000 first-bet offer.
Louisville vs. Miami Betting Picks for Week 12
Loyal, long-term readers know I'm a die hard Miami fan. Have been since the late 1980s as an impressionable youth and have been a Hurricane Club member for more than a decade. I'm far too close with my fandom to be objectionable, but I'll try!
For as much as I'm critical of Miami's offensive gameplan and play-calling, the program does seem to be making progress. They're bigger, more physical and haven't quit like in prior years. I expect that attitude to surface again here and this to be competitive. But statistically, I can't make a sound argument for the 'Canes to win.
Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke looks absolutely lost. He's thrown 11 interceptions over the last five games, no touchdowns in his last three and was benched against FSU. It's resulted in some very vanilla gameplans since Miami beat Texas A&M in September, with them averaging 35.3 rush attempts over the last eight games. That's not going to work against Louisville. The Cardinals are allowing 3.0 yards per rush with only three teams getting more than 100 yards against them. They're not bad against the pass either and make plays in the backfield, resulting in off-script possessions and turnovers.
Louisville's offense profiles similarly; they want to run Jawhar Jordan and take shot plays occasionally to Jamari Thrash. Miami's defense has similar success: They stuff the run, they are sound in the secondary and blitz frequently. Miami also is very content taking field goals often. They seem to have the advantage there. I ultimately trust Jack Plummer to make less mistakes than Van Dyke but with minimal confidence. The number is dropping to uncomfortable levels, but give me the under.
Louisville vs. Miami Best Bet: Under 46.5 points at BetMGM
Jump in on the 2023 college football season with a BetMGM bonus code sporting a $1,500 bonus bet offer.
Louisville vs. Miami Predictions for Week 12
Weather could be a minor factor Saturday. It will be very warm in Miami, with temperatures in the low 80s. There's going to be a breeze, too, double digits with gusts flirting with 20 mph. Could the Cardinals wilt late in the sun, and will the wind impact what I anticipate to be multiple field goal attempts?
Both teams will run and run often. Jordan has succeeded more in breaking big plays than Miami's stable of backs. Andres Borregales is a top kicker in the country; he'll convert more frequently than Brock Travelstead, who is just 11-for-17 from outside of 30 yards. But a Van Dyke mistake will give the Cardinals a short field, and they'll convert more drives into six points rather than three.
Louisville 24-16.
