This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Cal vs. Texas Tech Best Bets
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Cal and Texas Tech both come into this game just barely bowl-eligible following a 6-6 regular season. Cal finished the season on a three-game winning streak, beating UCLA, Stanford, and Washington State. Meanwhile, Texas Tech won two of their last three, beating then No.16 Kansas and UCF before losing in their final game to Texas. Both teams had a bit of a quarterback carousel throughout the course of the year. For Texas Tech, their incumbent starter, Tyler Shough, went down with an injury in week four against West Virginia, holding him out for the remainder of the season. This led to redshirt sophomore Behren Morton eventually winning the starting job over freshman Jake Strong. Morton completed 62% of his passes for 1,498 yards with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Cal is now led by redshirt freshman Fernando Mendoza, who was a third-stringer to start the season but by October had worked his way up to the top of the depth chart, getting his first start against Oregon State. Since then, Mendoza has completed 62.4% of his passes for 1,447 yards with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Cal vs Texas Tech Betting Odds for the Independence Bowl
Spread: Cal +3 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Texas Tech -2.5 (BetMGM)
Moneyline: Cal +154 (DraftKings); Texas Tech -162 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 56.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 57 (BetMGM)
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Cal vs Texas Tech Betting Picks for the Independence Bowl
The spread for this matchup has been pretty consistent, sitting around +/-3 for most of the week leading up to the game. On the other hand, the total has moved quite a bit throughout the week, as the consensus was around 58.5 on Monday and has now worked its way down to 56.5. The money line has also moved slightly as things have gone from Cal +115/Texas Tech -140 to Cal +135/Texas Tech -150.
Cal vs Texas Tech Expert Pick: Cal +135 (DraftKings) and Under 57 (BetMGM)
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Let's dive into the numbers a little bit here, if you are new to the program and joining us for bowl season I will be breaking this down using Expected Points Added (EPA) metrics. You can find explanations to better understand these metrics in our breakdown from LSU vs. Alabama as well as in the matchup analysis that will be referenced from CFB-Graphs here. The Cal offense, coming into bowl season, is ranked 69th in EPA/pass and 35th in EPA/rush, while the Texas Tech defense ranks 30th in EPA/pass and 26th in EPA/rush. One big note from this standpoint as well is that Cal will be without their Quarterbacks Coach and Offensive Coordinator, Jake Spavital, who is leaving to take over OC duties at Baylor. Spavital is being replaced by Sterlin Gilbert, who has spent the last nine seasons as OC/QB coach for Tulsa (2015), Texas (2016), USF (2017-2018), and Syracuse (2020-2021). Sterling also spent time as OC/QB coach for Eastern Illinois, where he groomed Jimmy Garappolo, Head Coach of McNeese State in 2019, and most recently as a senior analyst this season for No.11 Ole Miss. On the other side of the ball, the Cal defense ranks 44th in EPA/pass and 20th in EPA/rush, while the Texas Tech offense ranks 84th in EPA/pass and 7th in EPA/rush. This Cal defense vs. Texas Tech offense matchup looks to be strength against strength, with one of the nation's best rushing attacks going up against one of the nation's best rushing defenses. Typically, in these types of matchups, I give the edge to the defensive side of the ball, especially when there is such a large discrepancy in the passing game.
Cal vs Texas Tech Predictions for the Independence Bowl
These two teams match up pretty well with each other on paper and have had similar seasons to this point. Both teams are anchored by defenses that are in the top quarter of the nation in both EPA/pass and EPA/rush. Throwing in the wrinkle that Cal has a new Offensive Coordinator going into bowl season may make things a bit more difficult for the Cal offense. I would expect this to be a lower-scoring game, and with Cal having a slightly better offense and defense, statistically, I lean the way of Cal winning this game as well. With Cal being at plus-money, I see it as even better value to take the Golden Bears.
